Sector Update|
2
August 2017
Automobiles
Bajaj Auto
CMP: INR2,823
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
BJAUT IN
289.4
3122/2510
-5/-15/-14
TP: INR3,281 (+16%)
Buy
Overall July volumes down 6.7% YoY to 307.7k
Domestic volumes decline 5.8% YoY; exports down 8% YoY
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 840.6/13.1
Financial & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2018E 2019E
Sales
241
271
EBITDA
44.2 53.0
NP
39.7 47.3
Adj. EPS (INR) 137
164
EPS Gr. (%)
3.7 19.2
BV/Sh. (INR)
648
713
RoE (%)
22.2 24.0
RoCE (%)
24.6 23.0
Payout (%)
57.0 60.0
Valuation
P/E (x)
20.6 17.3
P/BV (x)
4.4
4.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 12.2
Div. Yield (%)
2.3
2.8
2020E
308
62.3
55.2
191
16.7
761
25.9
24.7
75.0
14.8
3.7
10.3
4.4
BJAUT’s July 2017 sales declined 6.7% YoY to 307,727 units, lower than our estimate of
322,200 units. Domestic volumes declined 5.8% YoY (but grew 47% MoM); exports
declined 8% YoY. To meet our volume estimate of 3.91m units for FY18, the required
residual monthly run rate is 339.3k units.
Overall motorcycle volumes declined 7% YoY. Domestic motorcycle dispatches
declined 5.4% YoY to 164.9k, as growth continues to be under pressure. Motorcycle
exports declined 9.8% YoY.
The management indicated improvement in sales in the months to come: “Domestic
motorcycle sales will be more than 200k units in September. The company has already
commenced production and launch of
CT100
electric start version. There is good
product action planned for
Platina
and
V.
All these products will be placed well before
the festive season.”
Total
Dominar
volumes in July 2017 were ~3k units compared to ~2k units in June;
BJAUT sold 10.5k units of KTM in July.
3W volumes have still not recovered and declined 4% YoY. Domestic 3W volumes
declined 8.9% YoY. Exports retained growth momentum for the fourth consecutive
month and grew 1.7% YoY.
The stock trades at 20.6x FY18E and 17.3x FY19E EPS. Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for July-17
YoY
Company Sales
Bajaj Auto
Motorcycles
Total Two-
Wheelers
Three-Wheelers
Domestic
Exports
YoY (%)
chg
307,727 329,833
-6.7
265,182 285,527
-7.1
Jul-17
Jul-16
265,182
42,545
186,497
121,230
285,527
44,306
198,022
131,811
-7.1
-4.0
-5.8
-8.0
MoM
MoM
(%)
Jun-17
FY18YTD FY17YTD
(%) chg
chg
244,878 25.7 1,196,161 1,324,566 -9.7
204,667 29.6 1,040,896 1,158,067 -10.1
204,667
40,211
126,975
117,903
29.6
5.8
46.9
2.8
1,040,896
155,265
665,406
530,755
1,158,067
166,499
822,106
502,460
-10.1
-6.7
-19.1
5.6
FY18
estimate
3,910,922
3,446,114
3,446,114
464,808
2,348,816
1,562,106
Residual
Residual
Monthly
Gr. (%) Growth (%)
Run rate
6.7
15.9
339,345
7.0
16.7
300,652
7.0
4.2
4
10.7
16.7
10.7
17.5
13.5
300,652
38,693
210,426
128,919
Motilal Oswal values your support in the
Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2017 for India
Research, Sales and Trading team. We
request your ballot.
Jinesh Gandhi - Research Analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Deep A Shah - Research Analyst
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com);+912261291533/
Jigar Shah - Research Analyst
(Jigar.Shah@MotilalOswal.com);+912239825402
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.