2 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Solar Industries
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
32,477
S&P CNX
10,082
CMP: INR896
TP: INR900(1%)
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In-line operational performance led by overseas business
Operational performance in line with estimates:
Consol. revenue increased
16% YoY to INR4.6b (est. of INR4.8b) in 1QFY18. EBIDTA grew 15% YoY to
INR1.0b (est. of INR980m), with margin stable YoY at 22.1%, supported by
strong growth in the overseas business. Adj. net profit rose 16% YoY to
INR548m (est. of INR545m).
Revenue aided by strong growth in overseas segment:
Consol. revenue was
driven by strong growth in the overseas segment (+48% YoY). On the domestic
front, institutional sales grew 13% YoY. However, the quarter saw declining
demand from CIL (sales down 18%), which faced realization pressure and lower
production. Realization was down in Bulk (-3% YoY) and Cartridge (-4% YoY)
segments, as the decline in raw material cost (ammonium nitrate) was passed
on to consumers.
Operating margin stable YoY at 22.1%:
Operating margin stood stable at 22.1%
driven by better overseas performance. Operating margin in the overseas
segment stood at 25.4% whereas Standalone operating margin also improved
190bp YoY to 20.4%.
Overseas & exports business growth led by currency stabilization:
Revenue
from the overseas & exports business grew 67% YoY, as the currency in the key
markets of Nigeria and Turkey stabilized and also as the new facility at South
Africa started contributing to revenue from 1QFY18.
Maintain Neutral:
We raise estimates for FY18/19 by 7/6% to factor in
improved overseas performance. Maintain
Neutral
with TP of INR900, valuing
SOIL at 30x FY19E EPS (earnings CAGR of 20% over FY17-19E). Stock trades at
premium valuations, given SOIL’s presence in Defense, which offers huge
business opportunity due to government focus, and strong growth in the core
business segment of explosives led by pick-up in mining activity.
FY17
2Q
3Q
3,283 4,331
-1.0 12.6
656
799
-5.6
4.4
20.0 18.4
98
95
73
68
40
16
0
0
525
653
133
157
25.4 24.1
391
495
-5.2 12.1
391
495
6.1 20.3
4Q
1Q
4,377 4,691
6.5 15.5
875 1,035
1.8 15.0
20.0 22.1
101
125
63
50
44
0
0
0
755
860
240
261
31.7 30.4
515
599
12.9 19.5
515
548
18.9 16.3
FY18
2QE
3QE
3,926 4,708
19.6
8.7
645
842
-1.5
5.4
16.4
17.9
111
111
70
70
20
20
0
0
485
681
145
204
30.0
30.0
339
477
-13.3
-3.7
339
477
-13.3
-3.7
FY17
4QE
6,893
57.5
1,558
78.2
22.6
96
83
40
0
1,419
394
27.8
1,025
98.9
1,025
98.9
15,800
9.1
3,239
6.5
20.5
387
269
132
0
2,715
767
28.3
1,947
3.6
1,947
FY18
20,116
27.3
3,978
22.8
19.8
443
272
80
0
3,343
1,005
30.1
2,338
4.5
2,389
FY18
1QE
4,761
12.0
980
13.3
20.6
111
68
20
0
822
246
30.0
575
14.8
545
15.7
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
SOIL IN
90.5
81.1 / 1.1
921 / 590
4/11/23
26
26.9
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
15.8
20.1
24.2
EBITDA
3.2
4.0
4.8
PAT
1.3
1.8
2.2
EPS (INR)
20.6
24.2
30.0
Gr. (%)
14.0
17.5
23.8
BV/Sh (INR)
112.3 131.7 778.6
RoE (%)
19.8
19.8
20.9
RoCE (%)
15.2
22.4
24.6
P/E (x)
43.5
37.0
29.9
P/BV (x)
8.0
6.8
1.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
As of % Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Extra-ordinary Items
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adj PAT
Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
4,062
5.6
900
25.2
22.1
94
68
0
0
738
237
32.1
501
9.6
471
13.9
(INR Million)
Var.
Vs Est
(1.5)
5.5
4.7
4.1
0.5
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ankur Sharma – Research Analyst
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah – Research Analyst
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543