4 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
Dabur
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
32,325
S&P CNX
10,066
CMP: INR308
TP: INR315(+2%)
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In-line revenue performance; International remains under pressure
Dabur’s (DABUR) 1QFY18 consol. sales declined 8.3% YoY to INR17.9b
(est. of
-6.0%). EBITDA fell by 11.4% YoY to INR 3.1b (est. -13.9%) and adj. PAT by 4.8%
YoY to INR2.8b (est. -12.3%).
Domestic FMCG business’ primary sales declined 5% YoY
(secondary sales
+2%), led by volumes decline of 4.4% YoY (est. of -5%). Hair care, Foods and
Health supplements declined 11.1%, 8.3% and 7.2% YoY, respectively, while
Oral care, Digestives, Home care and Skin care grew 1.4%, 3.8%, 6.1% and 4%
YoY, respectively. In Oral care, Toothpaste grew 10.4% YoY, but Toothpowder
dragged the performance. International sales fell 14.9% YoY (-2% on CC basis)
due to continued economic slowdown in MENA and currency devaluation.
Consol. EBITDA margin shrunk 60bp YoY to 17.3%,
mainly on lower gross
margin (-180bp YoY to 48.9%) and higher staff cost (+50bp to 11.4%), partially
offset by lower adspend (-170bp to 8.4%) and other expenses (-10bp).
Concall highlights:
a) Maintained full-year volume growth target. b) May not
see reduction in full-year margins if competitors are not too disruptive on
promotions. Expect promotions in beverages, though. c) Price hikes likely in 2H.
Valuation and view:
New launches in the science-based Ayurveda space in
FY18, potential recovery in rural consumption and recent investments behind
distribution expansion should aid medium-term growth. The stock is fairly
valued at 33.6x FY19E EPS. Maintain
Neutral
with a target price of INR315
(valued at 33x June’19 EPS, 10% discount to three-year average P/E).
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
DABUR IN
1756.5
540.3 / 8.5
313 / 259
1/0/-13
464
32.0
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
77.0
82.6
Net Sales
15.1
15.7
EBITDA
12.8
13.6
NP
7.2
7.7
EPS (INR)
1.9
6.7
EPS Gr. (%)
27.5
32.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
28.4
26.0
RoE (%)
24.6
22.6
RoCE (%)
42.4
39.8
P/E (x)
11.2
9.6
P/BV (x)
2019E
93.5
18.3
16.1
9.1
18.3
37.5
26.3
23.3
33.6
8.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research Analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya – Research Analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.