4 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Cummins India
BSE SENSEX
32,325
S&P CNX
10,066
CMP: INR950
TP: INR1170(23%)
Buy
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the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2017 for
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Results in-line; domestic execution drives growth
Operating performance in-line:
Cummins India’s (KKC) 4QFY17 revenue grew
7% YoY to INR13.4b (our estimate: INR13.2b). Gross margin contracted 130bp
YoY to 34.9%. EBITDA declined 5% YoY to INR1.95b (our estimate: INR1.95b);
EBITDA margin contracted 183bp YoY to 14.6%, in line with our estimate of
14.8%. PAT fell 8.4% YoY to INR1.7b (our estimate: INR1.7b). Margin
compression was led by adverse product mix and weak exports.
Domestic business delivers strong performance; exports remain weak:
Domestic revenue grew 10% YoY, aided by power generation (+11% YoY),
industrial (+21% YoY), and distribution & spares (+15% YoY) segments. Exports
declined 5% YoY (but grew 30% QoQ) due to overall weakness in the global
market (Africa, Middle East). For FY18, KKC maintained its guidance of negative
5% to flat export revenue growth, and muted 5-10% growth in domestic
business.
Adverse mix leads to gross margin contraction of 130bp:
Gross margin
contracted 130bp YoY to 34.9% due to weak product mix, while operating
margin contracted 180bp YoY to 14.4%. KKC expects margins to improve, with
product mix change in favor of better-margin products. Exports (30% of
revenue v/s 34% in 1QFY17) enjoy better margins than domestic sales.
Maintain Buy:
We maintain our
Buy
rating, with a target price of INR1,170 (32x
June 2019E EPS). The stock trades at 34x FY18E EPS of INR27.7 and 27x FY19E
EPS of INR35. Key risks to our rating are (a) slower -than-expected growth in
domestic power generation market, and (b) delay in pick-up of export demand.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
KKC IN
277
263.3/4.1
1096 / 748
-1/-9/-5
287
49.0
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
50.8
56.0
65.0
EBITDA
8.0
8.9
11.5
PAT
7.3
7.7
9.6
EPS (INR)
26.5
27.7
35.0
Gr. (%)
-2.6
4.3
26.6
BV/Sh (INR)
135.0 145.7 159.0
RoE (%)
21.2
19.7
22.8
RoCE (%)
20.0
18.8
21.8
P/E (x)
35.8
34.4
27.1
P/BV (x)
7.0
6.5
6.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
KKC: Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
As of % Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
12,590
-3.9
2,063
-6.9
16.4
206
21
416
2,252
440
19.5
1,812
(14.3)
1,812
(14.3)
(INR Million)
Var.
(%)
2.0%
0.1%
FY17
FY18
FY17
FY18 Vs Est.
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2QE
3QE
4QE
1Q
12,790 13,550 11,844 13,408 14,400 15,400 12,982 50,773 56,048 13,150
7.1
19.0
11.1
6.5
12.6
13.7
9.6
7.8
10.4
4.4
1,990 2,265 1,700 1,953 2,300 2,600 2,222 8,018 8,934 1,950
-1.4
31.1
-4.9
-5.4
15.6
14.8
30.7
14.6
7.0
-5.5
15.6
16.7
14.4
14.6
16.0
16.9
17.1
15.8
15.9
14.8
209
225
208
208
250
250
272
848
981
250
43
55
49
42
40
40
46
168
168
40
692
461
511
583
550
550
502 2,080 2,185
450
2,430 2,446 1,954 2,286 2,560 2,860 2,406 9,082 9,970 2,110
461
466
369
625
570
620
489 1,736 2,305
430
19.0
19.0
18.9
27.4
22.3
21.7
20.3
19.1
23.1
20.4
1,969 1,981 1,585 1,660 1,990 2,240 1,917 7,346 7,666 1,680
(0.5)
11.3
(5.1)
(8.4)
1.1
13.1
20.9
(2.8)
4.3
(7.3)
1,969 1,981 1,585 2,222 1,990 2,240 1,917 7,346 7,666 1,680
(0.5)
11.3
(5.1)
22.6
1.1
13.1
20.9
(2.8)
4.3
(7.3)
8.3%
-1.2%
32.2%
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ankur Sharma – Research Analyst
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah – Research Analyst
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543