Amara Raja Batteries
BSE SENSEX
32,274
S&P CNX
10,057
7 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
CMP: INR823
TP: INR986(+20%)
Buy
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Below estimate; adverse mix, competitive pressure dent profitability
Revenues in-line led by healthy growth in Automotive and Inverters:
Net sales
grew 14.5% YoY (+11.4% QoQ) to INR14.9b (in-line), driven by growth in Auto
and Inverters, while Industrial segment remained subdued. Auto segment
growth could have been better if not for the GST impact (on inventory).
Telecom segment declined ~10%, while UPS also witnessed marginal de-
growth. Inverters segment, however, grew 150% on a lower base.
Multi-quarter-low EBITDA margin at 12.9%:
EBITDA margin contracted 450bp
YoY (-250bp QoQ) to 12.9% (est. of 15%), primarily due to adverse mix (decline
in Telecom), sub-optimal utilization in inverter batteries, and the lack of lead
price pass-through in Telecom and UPS. Higher tax further restricted PAT,
resulting in a decline of 24% YoY to ~INR1b (est. of ~INR1.3b).
Takeaways from management interaction:
a) Registered volume growth in
Automotive segment, and continues to gain market share with OEMs. In
Replacement segment, volumes could have been higher, but due to GST
implementation, dealers restricted purchases. b) Took price hike in
Automotive segment, while intense competition in Telecom and UPS led to no
price pass-through. c) Lead cost for 1QFY18 was USD2,270; expects it remain
stable for next six months. d) Capex of INR5b in FY18. AMRJ is adding 2W
battery capacity of 4m (taking total 2W capacity to 15m by Mar-18) and 4W
battery capacity of 2.5m by 2QFY18 (taking total capacity to 10.5m).
Valuation view:
We cut our EPS estimates by 20%/10% for FY18/FY19 to factor
in higher RM cost, depreciation and tax rate. Significant FCF generation
(~INR9.6b over FY18-20E) and stable RoE of ~19%, coupled with potential shift
from unorganized to organized players due to GST, would continue to drive
stock re-rating. The stock trades at 29.1x/21.7x FY18/19E EPS. Maintain Buy
with a TP of INR986 (25x June 2019 EPS).
FY18
FY17 FY18E
2QE
3QE
4QE
15,877 15,538 15,687 53,172 62,076
18.0
17.0
16.7
15.1
16.7
68.0
68.0
68.1
65.6
68.5
4.8
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.2
12.8
12.9
14.3
13.9
11.6
2,278 2,188 2,010 8,499 8,405
14.4
14.1
12.8
16.0
13.5
520
550
521 1,912 2,136
14
12
12
58
51
175
220
118
492
650
1,919 1,846 1,596 7,022 6,868
31.0
31.0
28.4
31.9
31.0
1,324 1,274 1,142 4,785 4,739
-2.8
13.4
15.2
-2.7
-1.0
(INR Million)
FY18
1QE VAR (%)
14,793
1.2
12.0
67.0 300bp
4.9
50bp
13.0 -130bp
2,234
-13.7
15.1 -220bp
505
7.8
12
14.2
150
-8.8
1,867
-19.2
31.0
1,288
-22.4
-1.4
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
AMRJ IN
171
140.5 / 2.2
1077 / 788
-7/-21/-24
348
47.9
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2018E 2019E 2020E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
62.1
73.6
86.9
EBITDA
8.7
11.4
13.5
PAT
4.8
6.5
7.9
28.0
28.2
37.9
EPS (INR)
0.8
34.4
22.6
Gr. (%)
175
206
244
BV/Sh (INR)
17.3
19.9
20.7
RoE (%)
16.5
19.0
19.8
RoCE (%)
29.4
29.1
21.7
P/E (x)
5.4
4.7
4.0
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March (INR m)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
RM Cost (% of sales)
Staff Cost (% of sales)
Other Exp (% of sales)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Rate (%)
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
13,081
15.0
65.7
5.0
11.9
2,273
17.4
441
14
90
1,908
31.5
1,307
8.0
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
13,455 13,280 13,445
16.9
9.5
17.4
64.3
65.0
68.0
5.2
5.4
5.2
13.5
14.1
13.0
2,297 2,051 1,844
17.1
15.4
13.7
457
480
499
15
14
15
120
133
151
1,945 1,689 1,480
29.9
33.5
33.0
1,363 1,123
992
10.4
-17.9
-9.1
1Q
14,975
14.5
70.0
5.4
11.7
1,929
12.9
544
14
137
1,508
33.7
999
-23.6
Jinesh Gandhi - Research analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Jigar Shah - Research analyst
(Jigar.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5402
/Deep Shah
- Research analyst
(Deep.Shah@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.