Tata Motors
BSE SENSEX
32,014
S&P CNX
9,979
8 August 2017
Update
| Sector:
Automobiles
CMP: INR430
TP: INR666 (+55%)
Buy
Motilal Oswal values your support in
the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2017 for
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request your ballot.
JLR Jul-17 volumes in-line at 51,425 units (+17% YoY)
JLR volumes up 25% led by Discovery and RR Velar; Jaguar volumes flat
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg. Val, INRm
Free float (%)
TTMT IN
3,396.6
599 / 417
-4/-29/-30
1461.9
23.0
3726
65.3
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2018E 2019E 2020E
Net Sales
2,995 3,703 4,350
EBITDA
409.6 587.2 643.7
NP
105.1 218.5 229.9
Adj. EPS (INR)
30.9
64.3
67.7
EPS Gr. (%)
56.2 107.9
5.2
BV/Sh. (INR)
203.2 268.8 337.7
RoE (%)
16.5
27.3
22.3
RoCE (%)
10.5
17.0
15.7
P/E (x)
13.9
6.7
6.4
P/BV (x)
2.1
1.6
1.3
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-17 Mar-17 Jun-16
Promoter
34.7
34.7
33.0
DII
16.1
15.5
16.8
FII
23.5
23.2
25.0
Others
25.7
26.6
25.2
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tata Motors
Sensex - Rebased
620
540
460
380
300
JLR Jul-17 wholesale volumes grew ~17% YoY (+4% MoM) to 51,425 units
(including China JV volumes of 6,805 units; +87% YoY), in line with our estimate
of 51,591 units.
Jaguar volumes remained flat at 14,452 units (est. of 15,343 units), led by
lower sales of XE.
Land Rover (LR) volumes were up by a strong 25% YoY to 36,973 units (est. of
36,248 units), led by ramp-up of the all-new Discovery in North America and
China, and RR Velar introduction in the UK and EU.
JLR Jul-17 retail volumes rose 3.6% YoY (-11% MoM) to 46,074 units, led by an
increase in LR volume by ~6%, partly offset by a decline in Jaguar volume of
~2%.
Jaguar retail volumes were driven by F-Pace (to ~5.7k units) and XF volume
growth of ~18% YoY. Jaguar XE volumes declined ~22% YoY.
LR’s retail volumes increased ~6% YoY, mainly led by ramp-up in Discovery
(+13%) and a continued rise in Discovery Sport (+10%) and RR (+10%).
However, RR Sport (-11%) and RR Evoque (-9%) exhibited a decline.
Region-wise, China reported strong volumes at 11.6k units (+34% YoY),
including China JV volumes at 6,673 units. Growth in China is reflecting the
introduction of the long wheel base Jaguar XFL, as well as strong sales of F-
PACE, Discovery Sport, Range Rover Sport and Evoque. On the other hand,
retail sales were down in the UK (by 1%), North America (~3%), EU (~6%) and
Rest of world (~6% YoY).
Andy Goss, Jaguar Land Rover Group Sales Operations Director said “July has
been another successful month for Jaguar Land Rover, particularly in China,
where we reinforced our commitment to the market by opening our new
engine plant in Changshu on 21 July. Year on year, we have seen an increase in
sales for Land Rover, led by continuing strong sales of the Discovery Sport and
Range Rover. The new Range Rover Velar has already reached customers in the
UK and Europe and we anticipate continued strength of sales as Velar
continues to go on sale around the world”
The stock trades at 13.9x/6.7x FY18/FY19E consolidated EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR666 (FY19 SOTP-based) for ordinary shares, and
INR466 for DVR (~30% discount to TP for ordinary shares).
Jinesh Gandhi - Research Analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Deep A Shah - Research Analyst
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com);+912261291533/
Jigar Shah - Research Analyst
(Jigar.Shah@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Tata Motors
TATA MOTORS: JLR [Wholesales]
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
Jul-17
51,425
14,452
36,973
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
(%)
Jul-16
Jun-17
FY18YTD FY17YTD
chg
(%) chg
chg
43,932
17.1 49,422
4.1 189,901 178,266 6.5
14,369
0.6 12,463
16.0 52,175 48,941 6.6
29,563
25.1 36,959
0.0 137,726 129,325 6.5
YoY
FY18
Gr. (%)
estimate
684,342
13.9
211,589
18.4
472,753
12.0
Residual Residual
Growth Monthly
(%)
Run rate
17.0 61,805
22.8 19,927
14.4 41,878
TATA MOTORS : JLR [Retails]
YoY
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
Region-wise Retail Sales
Region
UK
US
Europe
China
RoW
Total JLR
Brand-wise Retail Sales
Brands
XF
XJ
F-Pace
XE
Others (incl. F-type)
Total Jaguar
Defender
Discovery
Freelander/Dis. Sport
Range Rover (incl. new)
RR Evoque
RR Sport (incl. new model)
RR Velar
Total Land Rover
Jul-17
46,074
12,964
33,110
Jul-16
44,486
13,198
31,288
YoY (%)
chg
3.6
-1.8
5.8
Jun-17
51,591
15,343
36,248
MoM
MoM (%)
chg
-10.7
-15.5
-8.7
FY18YTD
183,537
54,230
129,307
FY17YTD
86,287
18,626
67,661
(%) chg
112.7
191.2
91.1
Jul-17
7,558
10,185
10,099
11,636
6,596
46,074
Jul-16
7,631
10,469
10,704
8,655
7,027
44,486
YoY %
-1.0
-2.7
-5.7
34.4
-6.1
3.6
Jun-17
9,061
9,907
12,939
12,004
7,680
51,591
MoM %
-16.6
2.8
-21.9
-3.1
-14.1
-10.7
FY18YTD
30,641
38,578
43,635
45,150
25,533
183,537
FY17YTD
34,550
35,035
44,255
34,381
29,018
177,239
YoY %
-11.3
10.1
-1.4
31.3
-12.0
3.6
Jul-17
2,963
840
5,691
2,697
773
12,964
1
4,446
9,205
4,288
7,458
5,981
1,731
33,110
Jul-16
2,508
894
5,476
3,472
848
13,198
158
3,923
8,394
3,906
8,208
6,699
0
31,288
YoY %
18.1
-6.0
3.9
-22.3
-8.8
-1.8
-99.4
13.3
9.7
9.8
-9.1
-10.7
5.8
Jun-17
3,532
814
6,684
3,442
871
15,343
0
3,961
10,877
4,770
9,818
6,710
112
36,248
MoM %
-16.1
3.2
-14.9
-21.6
-11.3
-15.5
0.0
12.2
-15.4
-10.1
-24.0
-10.9
-8.7
FY18YTD
12,555
3,271
23,339
11,555
3,510
54,230
1
13,718
37,240
18,350
32,271
25,884
1,843
129,307
FY17YTD
10,394
3,434
14,943
12,681
3,551
45,004
898
16,310
37,506
16,268
33,971
27,282
0
132,235
YoY %
20.8
-4.7
56.2
-8.9
-1.2
20.5
-99.9
-15.9
-0.7
12.8
-5.0
-5.1
-2.2
8 August 2017
2

Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Total Income
Change (%)
Expenditure
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
EBIT
Product Dev. Exp.
Interest
Other Income
EO Exp/(Inc)
Forex Gain/ (Loss)
PBT
Tax
Effective Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
% of Net Sales
Minority Interest
Share of profit of associate
Net Profit
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
2015
2,631,590
13.0
2,210,452
421,138
16.0
133,886
287,252
28,752
48,615
8,987
930
917
217,026
76,429
35.2
140,597
-0.3
5.3
-868
134
139,863
140,465
-1.1
2016
2,730,456
3.8
2,312,693
417,763
15.3
167,108
250,655
34,688
48,891
8,854
18,504
16,169
141,258
30,251
21.4
111,007
-21.0
4.1
-989
5,775
115,793
130,334
-7.2
2017
2,696,925
-1.2
2,327,802
369,124
13.7
179,050
190,074
34,136
42,380
7,545
-11,146
39,101
93,148
32,512
34.9
60,636
-45.4
2.2
-1,022
14,930
74,544
67,288
-48.4
2018E
2,995,325
11.1
2,585,693
409,632
13.7
207,580
202,052
39,234
43,351
6,947
0
0
126,414
38,137
30.2
88,278
45.6
2.9
-1,079
17,884
105,082
105,082
56.2
2019E
3,702,702
23.6
3,115,463
587,239
15.9
247,282
339,957
43,178
46,417
6,553
0
0
256,915
63,321
24.6
193,594
119.3
5.2
-1,197
26,105
218,501
218,501
107.9
(INR Million)
2020E
4,349,964
17.5
3,706,250
643,715
14.8
289,655
354,060
47,665
47,641
6,553
0
0
265,306
63,600
24.0
201,706
4.2
4.6
-1,302
29,506
229,910
229,910
5.2
Balance Sheet (Cons.)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr.Assets
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
2015
6,438
556,181
562,619
692,115
-13,900
1,245,167
1,582,066
744,241
837,825
286,401
46,970
153,367
1,034,685
292,723
125,792
321,158
256,948
1,114,081
574,073
328,305
-79,396
1,245,167
2016
6,792
782,732
789,524
619,612
44,748
1,458,212
1,976,068
911,348
1,064,720
259,189
7,598
237,670
1,102,234
326,557
135,709
304,604
254,033
1,213,200
615,618
460,226
-110,965
1,458,212
2017
6,792
573,827
580,619
744,891
11,740
1,341,781
2,043,106
1,090,398
952,708
336,988
6,733
203,379
1,237,735
350,853
140,756
360,779
291,474
1,395,762
625,326
622,314
-158,027
1,341,782
2018E
6,792
683,149
689,941
726,807
11,740
1,434,099
2,438,894
1,297,978
1,140,916
250,000
6,733
221,263
1,247,199
389,803
164,127
282,921
306,474
1,432,012
672,922
594,962
-184,813
1,434,099
2019E
6,792
905,890
912,682
708,724
11,740
1,639,954
2,787,342
1,545,260
1,242,082
250,000
6,733
247,368
1,516,872
481,858
202,888
396,778
321,474
1,623,102
811,551
608,663
-106,230
1,639,954
(INR Million)
2020E
6,792
1,140,040
1,146,832
690,640
11,740
1,857,322
3,159,438
1,834,915
1,324,523
250,000
6,733
276,875
1,846,436
566,091
238,354
581,643
336,474
1,847,245
953,417
655,474
-809
1,857,322
8 August 2017
3

Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Ratios (Con.)
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Fully Diluted
Normalized EPS ^
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value (Rs/Share)
DPS
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E
Normalized P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2015
43.6
43.6
14.4
-1.1
85.2
174.8
0.0
0.0
9.9
29.9
3.8
0.6
2.5
0.0
23.1
15.7
39.2
17
41
80
2.1
1.2
2016
38.4
38.4
7.2
-12.0
87.6
232.5
0.0
0.0
11.2
60.1
3.7
0.6
1.9
0.0
19.3
15.1
34.5
18
44
82
1.9
0.8
2017
19.8
19.8
-10.6
-48.4
72.5
171.0
0.0
0.0
21.7
-40.6
4.4
0.6
2.5
0.0
9.8
9.2
22.6
19
47
85
2.0
1.3
2018E
30.9
30.9
-2.5
56.2
92.1
203.2
0.3
1.1
13.9
-169.9
4.1
0.6
2.1
0.1
16.5
10.5
25.2
20
48
82
2.1
1.1
2019E
64.3
64.3
25.2
107.9
137.2
268.8
0.3
0.5
6.7
17.1
2.6
0.4
1.6
0.1
27.3
17.0
35.9
20
48
80
2.3
0.8
2020E
67.7
67.7
25.1
5.2
153.0
337.7
0.3
0.5
6.4
17.2
2.0
0.3
1.3
0.1
22.3
15.7
36.0
20
48
80
2.3
0.6
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Int/Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Other Items
CF from Op Activity
Extra-ordinary Items
CF after EO Items
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
CF from Inv Activity
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2015
139,863
7,777
133,864
-41,940
-36,718
136,570
339,415
20,191
359,606
-315,396
-37,570
-352,966
0
122,288
-63,070
-7,204
52,014
58,655
152,629
211,283
2016
110,238
8,258
170,142
-19,939
25,515
96,855
391,069
8,857
399,925
-326,232
-68,134
-394,366
74,332
-47,483
-57,039
-1,739
-31,930
-26,371
219,875
193,505
2017
74,544
7,545
179,050
-65,520
103,236
1,068
299,923
11,146
311,069
-144,837
34,291
-110,546
-283,449
125,280
-42,380
0
-200,550
-27
360,779
360,752
2018E
105,082
6,947
207,580
-38,137
-51,072
1,079
231,481
0
231,481
-308,800
-17,884
-326,684
5,344
-18,084
-43,351
-1,104
-57,195
-152,398
282,921
130,523
2019E
218,501
6,553
247,282
-63,321
35,274
1,197
445,486
0
445,486
-348,448
-26,105
-374,553
5,344
-18,084
-46,417
-1,104
-60,261
10,672
396,778
407,451
2020E
229,910
6,553
289,655
-63,600
79,444
1,302
543,263
0
543,263
-372,096
-29,506
-401,602
5,344
-18,084
-47,641
-1,104
-61,485
80,176
581,643
661,819
8 August 2017
4

Tata Motors
NOTES
8 August 2017
5

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Tata Motors
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Tata Motors
No
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regulation or which would subject MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC)
pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement
with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to
SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these
securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting
Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL
is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States.
Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S.
persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional
investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major
institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the
"Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning
agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this
chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and
therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is
a subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined
in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the
following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other
person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or
solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy
is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their
own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its
own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options,
another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy,
completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be
treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may
be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent
in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this
report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed
therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any
purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be
eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its
directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with
the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to
hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be
suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring
Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE(F&O): INF011041257; BSE(CD); MSE(Cash): INB261041231;
MSE(F&O): INF261041231; MSE(CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset
Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers
wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities
Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
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