10 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
Gujarat Gas
Sell
BSE SENSEX
31,798
S&P CNX
9,908
CMP: INR749
TP: INR691 (-8%)
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EBITDA above estimate led by lower gas cost; volume growth strong
GUJGA reported EBITDA of INR2.7b (+24% YoY, +84% QoQ), ahead of our
estimate of INR1.8b, led by lower RM cost of INR10.6b (-5% QoQ). Reported
PAT came in at INR1b (+39% YoY, +215% QoQ), significantly ahead of our
estimate of INR579m.
EBITDA/scm stood at INR4.8:
EBITDA/scm rose sharply to INR4.8 (+3% YoY,
+81% QoQ), ahead of our estimate of INR3.3, led by lower gas cost. We have
modeled EBITDA/scm at INR5/5.1 for FY18/19.
PNG volumes strong:
PNG industrial/commercial volumes stood at
4.4mmscmd (+25% YoY, +3% QoQ), and PNG household volumes at
0.4mmscmd (+14% YoY, -21% QoQ). We have modeled total PNG volumes at
5/5.6mmscmd for FY18/19
CNG volumes up 11% YoY:
CNG volumes stood at 1.3mmscmd (+11% YoY,
+2% QoQ). We model CNG volumes at 1.4/1.6mmscmd for FY18/19.
Valuation and view
We expect volume growth to continue in FY18/19, primarily led by PNG
industrial and commercial segment. For FY18/19, we model volumes of
6.4/7.2mmscmd and EBITDA/scm of INR5/5.1.
We understand that due to gas not being in GST, sales volume has been
impacted adversely. However, we also understand that state government is
mulling decreasing VAT which may result in the volumes being restored.
Global gas utility companies are trading at 17.0x CY18/FY19E EPS. Due to
higher volatility, we value the company at 15x, ~10% discount to global
peers. At 15x FY19E EPS of INR46.1, we value GUJGA at INR691, implying a
downside of 8%. Maintain
Sell.
FY17
FY18
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2QE
3QE
4QE
12,371 12,309 14,002 14,780 16,911 17,281 18,016
-21.3 -17.1
1.6
20.7
36.7
40.4
28.7
10,243 10,600 12,539 12,082 13,991 14,265 14,972
2,129 1,709 1,463 2,698 2,920 3,015 3,045
17.2
13.9
10.4
18.3
17.3
17.5
16.9
645
653
643
666
725
725
725
541
539
476
496
378
378
378
53
75
71
78
137
137
137
995
593
415 1,615 1,954 2,050 2,079
277
170
84
571
645
676
686
27.8
28.6
20.2
35.4
33.0
33.0
33.0
718
423
331 1,044 1,309 1,373 1,393
158.8
31.5 -63.9
39.4
82.3 224.7 320.3
5.8
3.4
2.4
7.1
7.7
7.9
7.7
5.2
5.3
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
3.6
3.7
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.8
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
4.5
3.5
2.7
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.1
FY17
FY18E
(INR Million)
FY18
1QE Var (%)
15,438
-4.3
26.0
13,581
-11.0
1,857
45.3
12.0
710
-6.2
407
21.7
125
-37.1
864
86.9
285 100.4
33.0
579
80.2
-23.7
3.8
6.2
-2.0
1.3
-2.6
4.4
0.7
0.6
-22.3
3.3
48.3
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
GUJGA IN
137.7
103.3 / 1.6
880 / 487
-1/10/8
67
39.1
2019E
78.3
13.2
6.3
46.1
23.9
187.2
27.4
26.1
16.3
4.0
9.0
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E
Net Sales
50.9
67.0
EBITDA
7.5
11.7
PAT
2.8
5.1
EPS (INR)
20.4
37.2
EPS Gr. (%)
35.7
82.6
BV/Sh (INR)
119.5
149.7
RoE (%)
17.8
27.6
RoCE (%)
14.5
23.3
P/E (x)
36.8
20.1
P/BV (x)
6.3
5.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
16.8
10.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Standalone - Quarterly Earning Model
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
Total volume (mmscmd)
CNG
PNG - Industrials/commercial
PNG - Households
EBITDA (INR/scm)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
12,247
-26.7
10,073
2,173
17.7
632
534
62
1,070
321
30.0
748
27.7
6.1
5.1
1.1
3.5
0.4
4.7
50,929 66,988
-16.6
31.5
43,455 55,310
7,474 11,678
14.7
17.4
2,672 2,840
1,518 1,629
372
489
3,655 7,698
852 2,579
23.3
33.5
2,803 5,119
35.7
82.6
5.5
7.6
5.4
6.4
1.2
1.4
3.8
4.6
0.5
0.5
3.8
5.0
Swarnendu Bhushan
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.