Gujarat State Petronet
BSE SENSEX
31,214
S&P CNX
9,711
11 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
CMP: INR180
TP: INR171 (-5%)
Neutral
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EBITDA marginally above estimate; in-line transmission volumes
Reported revenue rose 15% YoY (+21% QoQ) to INR2.9b, falling short of our
estimate of INR3.1b, primarily due to lower implied tariffs. EBITDA of INR2.8b
(+15% YoY, +21% QoQ) was ahead of our estimate of INR2.7b due to lower O&M
expenses at INR504/mscm (-69% YoY, -32% QoQ). PAT came in at INR1.5b (in-line;
+26% QoQ, +20% YoY) – the difference at PAT level declined due to (a) lower
depreciation at INR430m (est. of INR507; flat YoY, -7% QoQ), (b) lower interest
cost at INR106m (est. of INR130; -37% YoY, -9% QoQ) and (c) higher tax rate at
36.2% (est. of 34.3%, 25.8% in 4QFY17 and 35.5% in 1QFY17).
In-line transmission volumes; lower implied tariff
Transmission volumes grew 7% YoY (+15% QoQ) to 26.9mmscmd (in-line) in
1QFY18.
Implied transmission tariff stood at INR1,157/mscm (est. of INR1,200; +8%
YoY, -3% QoQ).
GSPL’s board has approved 11% equity investment in Swan LNG.
Swan LNG is
implementing Greenfield LNG Port facility, a Floating Storage & Regasification
Unit (FSRU) with a regasification capacity of 5mmtpa of LNG at Jafrabad
(Gujarat), the total project cost is ~INR40b.
Valuation and view
We model (a) transmission tariff of INR1,200/mscm in FY18/19 v/s actual
INR1,157 in 1QFY18 and (b) volumes of 28/32mmscmd in FY18/FY19 v/s actual
26.9mmscmd in 1QFY18.
Medium-term risk is some volumes (~5mmscmd) going away with the start of
RIL’s petcoke gasification project. For every 5% variation in volumes/tariff,
earnings change by ~6%. The stock trades at 13.6x FY19E adj. EPS of INR13.3.
Our 10x FY19E P/E based TP stands at INR171. Maintain
Neutral.
FY17
2Q
2,564
-0.7
2,245
87.6
-3.8
436
148
304
1,965
666
33.9
1,298
1,298
7
2.3
24.6
1,079
FY18E
2QE
3QE
3,238 3,173
26.3
18.9
2,828 2,768
87.3
87.3
26.0
21.7
507
507
130
130
253
253
2,444 2,384
839
818
34.3
34.3
1,605 1,566
1,605 1,566
24
32
2.9
2.8
28.0
28.5
1,200 1,200
FY17
FY18E
(INR Million)
FY18 Var. vs
1QE
est
3,086
-4.0%
19.7
2,690
2.6%
87.2
15.4
507 -15.3%
130 -18.7%
253 -35.0%
2,306
3.6%
792
9.1%
34.3
1,515
0.7%
1,515
0.7%
25
2.7
0.7%
27.0
-0.4%
1,200
-3.6%
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
GUJS IN
563.0
101.5/ 1.6
204 / 119
9/0/18
110
62.3
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
10.3
12.6
14.4
Sales
8.9
11.2
12.8
EBITDA
5.0
6.3
7.5
Adj. PAT
8.8
11.1
13.3
Adj. EPS (INR)
11.5
26.5
19.1
EPS Gr. (%)
80
88.5
98.8
BV/Sh.(INR)
11.6
13.2
14.2
RoE (%)
9.9
11.3
12.0
RoCE (%)
20.5
16.2
13.6
P/E (x)
2.3
2.0
1.8
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
% Change
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
EPS (INR)
Transmission Vol. (mmscmd)
Implied adj. tariff (INR/mscm)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
2,579
-0.5
2,330
90.4
2.6
430
167
147
1,881
668
35.5
1,213
1,213
8
2.2
25.1
1,073
3Q
2,668
3.4
2,275
85.3
0.6
465
165
177
1,822
636
34.9
1,186
1,186
-9
2.1
26.2
1,095
4Q
2,446
5.5
2,013
82.3
-1.6
460
116
273
1,710
441
25.8
1,270
1,270
28
2.3
23.4
1,197
1Q
2,963
14.9
2,760
93.1
18.4
430
106
164
2,389
864
36.2
1,525
1,525
26
2.7
26.9
1,157
4QE
3,261 10,256 12,635
33.3
1.8
23.2
2,821 8,864 11,177
86.5
86.4
88.5
40.1
-0.5
26.1
586 1,791 2,030
163
596
529
342
901 1,012
2,414 7,378 9,631
828 2,411 3,349
34.3
32.7
34.8
1,585 4,966 6,281
1,585 4,966 6,281
25
7
26
2.8
8.8
11.2
28.6
24.8
28.0
1,243 1,111 1,200
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Swarnendu Bhushan – Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
– Research Analyst
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309