11 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
Oil India
Buy
BSE SENSEX
31,214
S&P CNX
9,711
CMP: INR279
TP: INR316(+13%)
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EBITDA ahead of estimate led by lower opex
Oil India’s (OINL) revenues of INR23.3b (+5% YoY, -7% QoQ) were in line with
our estimate of INR23.2b. Reported EBITDA of INR8.7b (+1% YoY, +30% QoQ)
was significantly above our estimate of INR7.3b, led by lower other
expenditure of USD5.4/boe v/s USD8.3 in 4QFY17 and USD6 in 1QFY17. Adj.
PAT of INR4.5b (-9% YoY) was lower than our estimate of INR5.3b due to lower
other income of INR1.5b (est. of INR4.6b; -36% YoY, -81% QoQ).
Realization at USD48.4/bbl:
In 1QFY18, gross realization stood at USD48.4/bbl
(est. of USD49.1; +12% YoY, -8% QoQ), led by lower oil prices. Production of oil
stood at 0.85mmt (+6% YoY, +2% QoQ) and of gas at 0.72bcm (-1% YoY, flat
QoQ). Total production grew 2% YoY (+1% QoQ) to 1.57mmtoe. Sales of oil
stood at 0.82mmt (+4% YoY, +2% QoQ) and of gas at 0.6bcm (-2% YoY, +1%
QoQ). Total sales grew 2% YoY (+2% QoQ) to 1.42mmtoe.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
OINL IN
801.5
251.7 / 3.9
367 / 258
7/-29/-10
212
33.9
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Sales
93.5
93.5 106.0
EBITDA
29.5
30.0
37.3
Adj. PAT
27.0
22.4
24.9
Adj. EPS (INR)
19.3
27.9
31.1
EPS Gr. (%)
7.2 -17.2
11.3
BV/Sh.(INR)
362.9 377.7 394.2
RoE (%)
5.7
7.5
8.0
RoCE (%)
6.4
5.9
6.2
P/E (x)
14.4
10.0
9.0
P/BV (x)
0.8
0.7
0.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.3
9.4
8.1
Div. Yield (%)
5.0
3.9
4.3
Valuation and view
With OPEC and non-OPEC agreeing to extend oil production cut until March
2018, we expect stability in crude oil prices and realizations of the company.
We model Brent of USD50/55/bbl in FY18/19.
Our SOTP-based fair value stands at INR316 (incl. investment value of INR123).
We value the company at 8x FY19E adj. EPS of INR28.4, and add investments of
INR123 in IOCL, NRL and BCPL. The stock trades at 9x FY19E EPS of INR31.1.
Dividend yield is attractive at ~5%. Maintain
Buy.
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Change (%)
D,D&A
Interest
OI (incl. Oper. other inc)
PBT before exceptionals
Exceptional item
PBT after exceptionals
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Change (%)
Adj. EPS (INR)
Key Assumptions (USD/bbl)
Exchange rate (INR/USD)
Gas Price (USD/bbl)
Gross Oil Realization
Net Oil Realization
1Q
22.2
-19.2
8.6
38.8
-20.4
2.3
1.0
2.4
7.7
0.0
7.7
2.8
36.2
4.9
-36.2
6.2
66.9
3.4
43.1
43.1
FY17
2Q
22.4
-6.5
7.5
33.3
-2.9
2.5
1.0
4.8
8.8
0.0
8.8
2.9
33.7
5.8
-14.0
7.2
67.0
3.4
44.6
44.6
3Q
23.8
7.1
6.6
28.0
7.1
2.8
1.0
3.2
6.1
0.0
6.1
1.5
25.1
4.5
18.8
5.7
67.4
2.8
49.2
49.2
4Q
25.1
32.3
6.7
26.7
13.0
3.3
1.0
8.0
10.4
11.5
-1.1
-1.3
-12.5
0.2
-95.9
14.6
67.2
2.8
52.5
52.5
1Q
23.3
5.0
8.7
37.5
1.3
2.9
1.0
1.5
6.4
0.0
6.4
1.9
29.4
4.5
-8.9
5.6
64.4
3.4
48.4
48.4
FY18
2QE
3QE
22.5
22.2
0.2
-6.7
6.7
6.3
29.7
28.5
-10.8
-4.9
3.0
3.0
1.0
1.0
4.6
5.0
7.3
7.4
0.0
0.0
7.3
7.4
2.4
2.4
33.0
33.0
4.9
4.9
-15.4
8.7
6.1
6.2
65.5
3.2
48.7
48.7
66.0
2.8
48.7
48.7
4QE
23.5
-6.4
6.1
25.8
-9.8
2.9
1.0
7.9
10.1
0.0
10.1
3.3
33.0
6.8
3,407.3
8.4
66.5
2.3
48.7
48.7
FY17
93.5
0.9
29.5
31.5
-4.0
10.9
4.0
18.4
33.0
11.5
21.5
6.0
18.1
15.5
-32.8
33.7
67.1
3.1
47.3
47.3
FY18E
91.5
-2.2
27.8
30.4
-5.7
11.8
3.9
19.1
31.2
0.0
31.2
10.1
32.3
21.1
36.4
26.4
65.6
2.9
48.6
48.6
FY18
1QE
23.2
8.5
7.3
31.4
-6.1
3.0
1.0
4.6
7.9
0.0
7.9
2.6
33.0
5.3
7.5
6.6
64.4
3.4
49.1
49.1
(INR Billion)
Var vs
est (%)
1%
20%
-3%
5%
-67%
-20%
-20%
-28%
-15%
-15%
0%
0%
-1%
-1%
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Swarnendu Bhushan – Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale – Research Analyst
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309