Parag Milk Foods
BSE SENSEX
31,214
S&P CNX
9,711
11 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR236
TP: INR245(+4%)
Neutral
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Sales in-line; Medium-term target unchanged
PARAG reported net sales growth of 7.7% YoY (est. of +6%) to INR4.1b
in
1QFY18. EBITDA declined 7.7% YoY (est. of -18.7%) to INR294m, while adj. PAT
grew 3% YoY (est. of -24.3%) to INR105m. Sales in 1QFY18 were impacted by
destocking (majorly in the last 15 days of June), farmer strike in Maharashtra
(affected liquid milk sales in May/June), and impact on the cheese business
from low exports (hardening of INR) and price hikes to institutional players.
Gross margin expanded 50bp YoY to 29%.
Higher other expenses (+160bp YoY
to 17.3%) and employee costs (+10bp YoY to 4.6%) led to EBITDA margin
contraction of 120bp YoY to 7.1%. Lower tax rate at 8.1% led to adj. PAT
growth, despite the EBITDA decline.
Key concall highlights:
(1) RM prices higher YoY, but no change QoQ. Expect
milk prices to come down 3QFY18 onward, but not sharply. (2) GST benefits
will be neutral-to-positive for PARAG; will take one quarter to know the exact
impact. (3) Target remains unchanged: 14-15% revenue CAGR with 5% net
margin over next 2-3 years; margin target does not take into account GST-led
benefits.
Valuation and view:
Opportunity size in Dairy is huge, and in turn, offers strong
growth visibility for branded players. PARAG, with its strengths in procurement,
distribution, innovation and management bandwidth, is best placed among
peers. While rest of the listed dairy players are either regional or have
dominant B2B positioning, PARAG offers a pan-national branded dairy play
with a B2C focus. The crucial factor to monitor remains RoE improvements over
the medium term. Until RoE improves, target multiples would not be more
than 20x, even if earnings momentum is strong. We have revised FY18E EPS
upward by 23% due to margin beat and lower tax rate guided for FY18. We
maintain
Neutral
with a target price of INR245 (18x June‘19 EPS).
(INR Million)
FY17
2Q
4,728
0.7
1,444
30.5
1,067
377
-8.9
8.0
115
64
23
222
78
35.4
143
47.8
3.0
3Q
4,461
15.1
987
22.1
1,131
-145
-137.8
-3.2
109
89
20
-322
-54
16.8
-268
-284.5
-6.0
4Q
4,283
3.4
1,390
32.4
871
519
29.6
12.1
168
88
59
322
3
0.9
319
98.4
7.5
1Q
4,129
7.7
1,199
29.0
905
294
-7.7
7.1
116
79
15
115
9
8.1
105
3.0
2.5
FY18
2QE
3QE
5,580
4,996
18.0
12.0
1,649
1,355
29.5
27.1
1,203
1,017
445
338
18.0
LP
8.0
6.8
115
109
64
62
23
20
290
187
78
51
27.0
27.0
211
137
47.6
LP
3.8
2.7
FY17
4QE
5,131
19.8
1,563
30.5
940
623
20.2
12.1
123
51
24
473
160
33.8
313
-2.0
6.1
17,307
5.2
4,916
28.4
3,846
1,070
-27.8
6.2
490
336
118
362
65
18.0
297
-37.2
1.7
FY18E
19,835
14.6
5,766
29.1
18,135
1,700
58.9
8.6
462
256
82
1,064
298
28.0
766
157.9
3.9
FY18
1QE
4,065
6.0
1,093
26.9
825
268
-18.7
6.6
88
74
11
117
35
30.0
82
-24.3
2.0
Var.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
PARAG IN
84.1
19.8 / 0.3
354 / 203
2/-28/-40
75
51.8
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
17.3
19.8
23.1
EBITDA
1.1
1.7
2.1
PAT
0.3
0.8
1.0
EPS (INR)
3.6
9.1
12.5
Gr. (%)
-46.4 152.6
37.0
BV/Sh (INR)
78.2
87.3
99.7
RoE (%)
6.0
11.0
13.3
RoCE (%)
6.9
10.1
12.0
P/E (x)
65.3
25.9
18.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
19.7
12.1
9.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Consolidated - Quarterly Earning Model
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
Gross Profit
Ma rgi n (%)
Tota l Expendi ture
EBITDA
YoY Cha nge (%)
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
Adj PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
Ma rgi ns (%)
E: MOSL Es ti ma tes
1Q
3,835
2.6
1,095
28.6
777
318
11.8
8.3
98
96
16
140
38
27.2
102
45.5
2.7
(%)
1.6
9.7
9.6
-2.1
28.6
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Vishal Punmiya – Research Analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research Analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428