22 August 2017
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
31,259
-0.8
Nifty-50
9,754
-0.8
Nifty-M 100
17,782
-1.5
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,428
0.1
Nasdaq
6,213
-0.1
FTSE 100
7,319
-0.1
DAX
12,066
-0.8
Hang Seng
10,752
0.5
Nikkei 225
19,393
-0.4
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
52
0.0
Gold ($/OZ)
1,287
-0.6
Cu (US$/MT)
6,551
1.5
Almn (US$/MT)
2,089
0.9
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
64.1
0.0
USD/EUR
1.2
0.1
USD/JPY
109.1
0.1
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
6.5
0.0
10 Yrs AAA Corp
7.4
0.0
Flows (USD b)
21-Aug
MTD
FIIs
-0.3
-1.8
DIIs
0.1
1.7
Volumes (INRb)
21-Aug
MTD*
Cash
287
309
F&O
5,044
6,618
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
17.4
19.2
23.9
YTD.%
8.5
15.4
2.5
5.1
14.4
1.5
YTD.%
-5.3
11.0
18.6
22.6
YTD.%
-5.5
11.5
-6.8
YTDchg
0.0
-0.2
YTD
7.0
5.8
YTD*
290
5,181
Today’s top research
idea
NTPC: Kudgi and Solapur projects on track
Earnings growth to accelerate; valuations attractive
v
NTPC has strong pipeline of CoDs. There is good visibility of 3.7GW of organic
and 1GW of inorganic growth at NTPCsa. This will add INR81b or 18.4% to
regulated equity in FY18.
v
In addition, 445MW will be added to commercial capacity of JVs in FY18. The
visibility of CoDs for FY19 too is improving, with expected commissioning of
2.65GW in FY18. We expect regulated equity to grow at ~20% CAGR and
consolidated PAT to grow at 12% CAGR over FY17-20. Capitalization would
start to outpace capex, boosting RoE and driving stock re-rating.
v
The stock trades at 1.3x FY19E BV. We value the stock at INR204/share even
after factoring 150bp regulatory risk to RoE from FY20 in our DCF model.
Buy.
Research covered
Cos/Sector
NTPC
Infosys
Marico
MindTree Consulting
Gateway Distriparks
Metals Weekly
Key Highlights
Kudgi and Solapur projects on track
The uncertainty discount over buyback premium
Confidence on long-term prospects intact
Well placed to address the Digital opportunity
Rail profitability impacted sharply by increased imbalance
Aluminum and zinc prices increase on supply measures
Piping hot news
ONGC board approves HPCL takeover
v
The board of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp today gave 'in-principle'
approval to acquire government's 51.11 per cent stake in Hindustan
Petroleum Corp Ltd, the company said in a regulatory filing.
Chart of the Day: EcoScope (State-wise details of growth in tax collections, revenue expenditure
and capital expenditure, % YoY, #)
(% YoY)
Karnataka (KA)
Madhya Pradesh (MP)
Maharashtra (MH)
Punjab (PB)
Rajasthan (RJ)
Tamil Nadu (TN)
Uttar Pradesh (UP)
West Bengal (WB)
14 state governments
# April-June period
Tax collection
FY17
FY18
11.0
12.5
5.1
9.6
(4.5)
6.8
(2.8)
10.2
9.3
6.9
16.1
19.5
22.1
14.7
17.2
14.0
(21.2)
16.3
Revenue spending
FY17
FY18
13.5
10.5
10.3
36.6
12.1
(7.3)
4.0
22.4
44.2
14.7
10.5
2.7
15.5
0.1
1.8
11.1
15.6
11.0
Capital spending
FY17
FY18
14.1
34.4
46.6
128.2
1,349.1
19.3
(33.1)
55.6
94.7
59.5
(28.5)
6.6
(94.1)
(26.1)
88.9
(78.2)
(18.0)
(24.8)
Source: CAG, State government finance ministries, CGA, MOSL
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.