30 August 2017
Annual Report Update | Sector: Utilities
Tata Power
Sell
BSE SENSEX
31,394
S&P CNX
9,796
CMP: INR77
TP: INR71 (-8%)
Optimized CGPL’s capital structure
Raising estimates; Maintain Sell
Post analyzing Tata Power’s (TPWR) FY17 annual report, we have raised our
estimates. Key highlights:
CGPL gets INR45b quasi equity; another INR29b needed over three years
CGPL’s (Coastal Gujarat Power, Mundra) EBITDA declined 58% YoY to INR5.4b
in FY17, as fuel under-recoveries nearly doubled to INR0.58/kwh (INR15b).
Finance cost declined 48% YoY to INR6.8b on conversion of INR45b in quasi
equity. FCF generation improved due to a sharp increase in trade payables to
145 days, historical low capex of INR467m, and lower interest payments.
We are raising estimates for CGPL, given higher fuel price increase by CERC (v/s
our estimate) for escalable portion of fuel cost, lower PLF and a stronger INR.
CGPL will require INR29b equity infusion or re-financing to meet INR20b debt
repayments and fund negative free cash flows over FY18-20E.
Coal JVs are funding negative free cash flows (some of under-recoveries) at CGPL
Coal JVs’ disclosure has improved. PAT grew ~5x YoY to INR6.7b and dividend
payout was ~56% in FY17. INR3.7b dividend from coal JVs nearly offset the
INR3.3b negative free cash flow (FCF) at CGPL. Coal prices are expected to drive
~40% PAT growth in FY18. We expect 100% payout by coal JVs w.e.f. FY18.
Delhi distribution: Strong FCF on WC release, but regulated equity is muted
Delhi distribution is generating strong FCF on working capital release and a
recovery of regulatory assets, but regulated equity growth is muted.
Despite capex of ~INR8b in the last two years, Delhi’s reported regulated
equity is broadly unchanged at INR11.6b in FY17.
Renewable energy: Strong free cash flow, but intense competition hurts growth
Capacity increased from 294MW in FY16 to 1,459MW (excl. parents’ 500MW),
and EBITDA increased from INR2.2b to INR8.6b on M&A in FY17.
Capacity will increase further by 400MW in FY18E. However, growth will slow
to 200MW (400MW earlier) each year due to rising competitive intensity. PAT
is expected to increase at a CAGR of ~38% over FY17-20E to INR4.5b.
Leverage increased under Ind-AS; Maintain Sell with SOTP of INR71
Consolidated net debt to EBITDA ratio rose from 5.1x to 6.4x under Ind-AS on
exclusion of JVs. We expect leverage to decline due to the lack of value-
accretive re-investment opportunities, as management highlighted pulling back
from investment opportunity in RE due to intense competition.
We are raising PAT estimates by 14%/10%/5% for FY18/19/20 on upgrades at
CGPL and tax savings. EPS is expected to increase at 14% CAGR to INR7.7 over
FY17-20E. Stock is trading at a P/E of 10.8x FY19E.
Net worth has become volatile due to fair value accounting under Ind-AS. It no
longer represents the historical meaning of shareholders’ contribution and
retained earnings. Therefore, we abandon P/BV basis for valuations and switch
to SOTP-based valuation. Maintain
Sell
rating with an SOTP of INR71.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INRm)/Vol m
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
TPWR IN
2,705
91/67
-3/-14/-11
214.4
3.3
391
67.0
FY17 FY18E FY19E
279.0
58.5
14.0
5.2
83.8
43.5
11.9
6.8
15.3
1.8
313.2 325.2
68.8
19.6
7.3
40.4
48.1
15.8
6.5
10.9
1.6
72.1
19.9
7.3
1.4
55.7
14.2
6.6
10.8
1.4
Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-17 Mar-17 Jun-16
33.0
24.7
26.4
15.9
33.0
23.5
27.3
16.2
33.0
24.5
26.1
16.3
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tata Power Co.
Sensex - Rebased
93
86
79
72
65
Dhruv Muchhal – Research Analyst
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549
Sanjay Jain – Research Analyst
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.