7 September 2017
Annual Report Update | Sector: Cement
BSE SENSEX
31,663
S&P CNX
9,930
Shree Cement
Buy
CMP: INR18,480
TP: INR22,360 (+21%)
Expanding footprint in new regions
On capacity expansion spree for the next 2-3 years
We went through Shree Cement's (SRCM) annual report for FY17. Our key
takeaways:
Diversification strategy continues; adding capacity in newer markets:
SRCM
continues its endeavor to diversify its end markets by adding capacity in newer
markets of East and South India over the next two years. It will be adding up to
6.4m tonnes in the East and 3m tonnes in the South over the next couple of years.
This will reduce its dependence on the North from 100% in 2014 to less than 65%
in FY20; currently, the North accounts for ~78% of SRCM’s capacity.
Aggressive capacity addition program continues:
SRCM has increased capacity at
a CAGR of 17% over FY12-17 by debottlenecking and diversifying into newer
markets. Capacity addition far ahead of the industry has resulted in strong market
share gains for SRCM. It is likely to increase capacity by ~32% over the next two
years, which will result in continued trend of market share gains.
Capex cost remains lowest in the market:
In FY17, SRCM increased capacity by
~14% to 29.3m tonnes. The associated capex for the expansion was INR7.6b. This
translates into capex per tonne of USD32 as against the industry standard of
USD50-70/tonne. Of the total capacity addition of 3.7m tonnes, 2.1m tonnes was
by way of debottlenecking, which typically entails lower capex cost.
Cost leadership maintained:
SRCM has been able to mitigate the impact of sharp
increase in petcoke prices in FY17 by building low cost inventory and improving
power consumption norm. Petcoke prices increased ~21% in FY17, while SRCM’s
unitary cost of power and fuel declined by ~6%. We expect the lag impact of
increase in petcoke prices to be seen in SRCM’s unitary power and fuel cost.
Sweating assets to optimal utilization:
SRCM has been known to utilize assets to
optimal level to improve profitability and return ratios. It has seen lower plant load
factor for its merchant power at Ras due to weak merchant power demand.
Additionally, it is facing captive power deficit for its eastern operations. It shifted
the idle boiler unit, and subsequently, the turbine from Ras to its eastern unit, thus
saving significantly on capital cost.
Securing resources for sustainable growth in the East:
SRCM has secured fuel
requirement for expanded operations in Raipur unit by bidding for and winning
three coal linkages from multiple fields, which will ensure uninterrupted supply of
fuel with no major price volatility. Additionally, to support line-3 of clinker unit in
Raipur, it has secured limestone deposit adjacent to the present unit; this can
support operations of ~2.5m tonnes of clinker capacity.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
SRCM IN
34.8
20560 / 12477
4/7/-5
643.8
9.6
292.0
35.2
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Sales
84.3
98.9 123.0
EBITDA
23.7
25.0
31.9
NP
13.4
16.0
19.1
Adj EPS (INR)
384.4 460.4 547.8
EPS Gr. (%)
5.4
19.8
19.0
BV/Sh. (INR)
2,210 2,623 3,125
RoE (%)
18.4
19.1
19.1
RoCE (%)
17.5
17.7
18.0
Payout (%)
35.1
10.1
8.5
Valuation
P/E (x)
48.1
40.1
33.7
P/BV (x)
8.4
7.0
5.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
26.0
23.6
18.1
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-17 Mar-17 Jun-16
Promoter
64.8
64.8
64.8
DII
14.6
14.7
15.4
FII
14.7
14.6
13.8
Others
5.9
6.0
6.0
FII Includes depository receipts
Abhishek Ghosh – Research analyst
(Abhishek.Ghosh@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Pradnya Ganar – Research analyst
(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4322
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.