Detailed Report | Sector: Healthcare
th
13 Annual Global Investor Conference
BSE Sensex
32,401
S&P CNX
10,141
Lupin
TP: INR1,125 (+12%)
Mr Nilesh Gupta
MD
Lupin
CMP: INR1,002
Buy
CEO TRACK
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
174.9 169.1 198.6
EBITDA
44.9
36.2
46.5
Net Profit
25.6
18.7
25.4
EPS (INR)
56.6
41.4
56.3
EPS Gr.(%)
12.4 -26.9
36.0
BV/Sh. (INR)
298.9 329.8 375.5
RoE (%)
20.9
13.2
16.0
RoCE (%)
13.3
8.8
10.8
P/E (x)
17.5
24.2
17.8
P/BV (x)
3.4
3.0
2.7
Prepping for next wave of growth
Takeaways from CEO track
We hosted Mr Nilesh Gupta, Managing Director of Lupin (LPC), as part of ‘CEO Track’ at our
annual conference. Key takeaways:
Mr Gupta has categorized the evolution of the Indian pharmaceutical industry into
Wave 1, Wave 2 and Wave 3. According to him, the India pharma industry is at the end
of Wave 2. Although the next two years will pose challenges for LPC in the US, the
company will continue focusing on the complex generics, biosimilars and specialty
businesses over the medium term.
Mr Gupta believes that the domestic market can continue recording a 12% CAGR in
the medium term. However, the overhang related to 1) new draft policy, 2)
government’s focus on generic-generic and 3) Jan Aushadhi scheme can exert pressure
in the near term.
Over 1995-2015, India became a global generic powerhouse, as exports as % of total
revenues reached >45%.
India pharma – the road ahead: In the US, channel consolidation can continue exerting
additional pressure in the near term, as the last leg of consolidation will get over in
the next few months. Also, GDUFA -2 will lead to faster approvals (which, in turn, will
create more competition). Filing costs have also increased.
Quality and compliance: In 2015-16, Indian facilities were issued 20 warning letters
out of the total 52 (ex-US). A constantly evolving and holistic regulatory compliance
effort is a must today. According to Mr Gupta, good regulatory compliance does cost
money and not necessarily gets you a premium.
Focus areas for LPC in specialty business: ADHD, movement disorders, hormones, and
niche and small indications in women’s health.
Focus areas for LPC in complex generics: Inhalation and complex generics.
Existing model facing challenges in US
Over the last two decades, the Indian pharma companies have actively transformed
themselves from API manufacturers to finished dosage suppliers. Currently, ~40% of
generics volumes supplied in the US are from India. Notably, five out of the top-10
global generics companies are Indian. However, Mr Gupta believes that the existing
model is facing challenges, and not delivering the same kind of growth as before. In
Kumar Saurabh-Research analyst
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Ankeet Pandya-Research analyst
(Ankeet.Pandya@MotilalOswal.com)
September 2017
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.