25 September 2017
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
31,922
-1.4
Nifty-50
9,964
-1.6
Nifty-M 100
18,394
-2.9
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,502
0.1
Nasdaq
6,427
0.1
FTSE 100
7,311
0.6
DAX
12,592
-0.1
Hang Seng
11,109
-0.8
Nikkei 225
20,296
-0.3
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
57
1.3
Gold ($/OZ)
1,296
0.2
Cu (US$/MT)
6,416
-0.4
Almn (US$/MT)
2,137
-0.5
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
64.8
-0.1
USD/EUR
1.2
0.5
USD/JPY
112.1
-0.2
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
6.7
0.0
10 Yrs AAA Corp
7.5
0.0
Flows (USD b)
22-Sep
MTD
FIIs
-0.2
-1.1
DIIs
0.1
1.5
Volumes (INRb)
22-Sep
MTD*
Cash
340
322
F&O
6,997
5,637
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
19.9
21.7
28.2
YTD.%
11.8
19.4
2.3
9.7
18.2
6.2
YTD.%
2.2
11.8
16.2
25.4
YTD.%
-4.5
13.5
-4.3
YTDchg
0.1
0.0
YTD
5.7
8.1
YTD*
292
5,323
Today’s top research idea
Dish TV India: Cost synergies not fully factored in stock price;
Expect healthy EBITDA growth for merged entity in FY19
v
Videocon D2H’s merger should drive synergies of INR2.4b/INR4b in FY19/20
(management expects synergies of INR5.1b in FY19), implying combined
EBITDA of INR26.8b/INR31.9b in FY19/20.
v
DITV’s ARPU should gradually recover, as (a) the effects of demonetization
wane, (b) HD contribution rises, (c) GST leads to better tax compliance by
LCOs and (d) competitive intensity diminishes with consolidation.
v
DD Freedish remains a near-term risk, but the FTA market may not favorably
offset broadcaster’s loss of Pay TV subscription revenue. Thus, the risk of DD
Freedish may subside beyond 1-2 years.
v
We expect DTH operators to be insulated from RJio’s wireline launch, given it
will be more urban-specific with slow scalability and high ARPU offerings.
v
DITV is trading at EV of 5.8x FY19E EBITDA, including merger synergies. Buy
with a TP of INR106 (8x FY19E EBITDA of INR26.8b, incl. synergies).
Research covered
Cos/Sector
Dish TV
Hindustan Unilever
Cement
Key Highlights
Cost synergies not fully factored in stock price
Expect gradual improvement
North companies better placed for 2HFY18
Piping hot news
Opec, Russia hold steady on cuts as oil market improves
v
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and Russia said
they were about halfway toward clearing a global oil glut and urged fellow
producers to stay focused and finish the job, while stopping short of additional
action to reassure a jittery market.
Chart of the Day: OMCs’ earnings are highly sensitive to GRM; expect OMCs to clock
strong GRM in 2QFY18
Sensitivity to USD1/bbl change in GRM (%)
IOC
Expect USD9.5/bbl GRM in 2QFY18 vs
USD6.5/bbl in 1QFY18 and USD4.3/bbl
in 2QFY17
HPCL
Expect USD10/bbl GRM in 2QFY18 vs
USD8.8/bbl in 1QFY18 and USD4.2/bbl
in 2QFY17
BPCL
Expect USD10/bbl GRM in 2QFY18 vs
USD4.9/bbl in 1QFY18 and USD4.6/bbl
in 2QFY17
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.