Bajaj Finance
BSE SENSEX
31,924
S&P CNX
10,017
11 October 2017
Update
| Sector:
Financials
CMP: INR1,924
TP: INR2,300 (+20%)
BUY
Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose much
Laying the foundation for the next decade
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
BAF IN
574
1,989 / 762
2/47/68
1,118.3
17.1
1,542
42.1
n
n
n
We recently met with the heads of Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) SME, Rural, Commercial and
Risk Management operations. We were enthused by the company’s efforts to lay the
foundation for the next phase of its journey – BFL 2.0.
Furthermore, the recent QIP equips the company with the much-needed ammunition
to sustain its 30%+ AUM growth trajectory over the foreseeable future, and
importantly, without any EPS dilution.
For FY18-20, while our new EPS estimates are marginally accretive, our BVPS
estimates have been upgraded by 20-30%. We believe that valuations must be viewed
in relation to the overall market and the company’s continued outperformance versus
peers. Confident about management’s planning and execution, we expect BAF to
outperform its peers, and thus, do not foresee any meaningful multiple contraction
over the medium term. We raise our target price to INR2,300 (6.0x Sep 2019E BVPS).
Buy.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2017 2018E 2019E
NII
54.7
77.6 102.7
PPP
36.4
52.5
70.8
PAT
18.4
26.0
36.1
EPS (INR)
32.0
45.4
62.9
EPS Gr. (%)
43.6
41.6
38.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
167
285
338
RoA (%)
3.5
3.6
3.7
RoE (%)
21.6
20.1
20.2
Payout (%)
14.0
12.5
12.5
Valuations
P/E (x)
60.1
42.4
30.6
P/BV (x)
11.5
6.8
5.7
Div. Yield (%)
0.2
0.3
0.4
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-17 Mar-17 Jun-16
Promoter
57.9
57.9
57.4
DII
5.9
5.4
5.5
FII
19.1
19.8
20.1
Others
17.1
16.9
17.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Bajaj Fin.
Sensex - Rebased
1,950
1,550
1,150
750
A tech enterprise in the business of finance
One of the key themes resonating in all our meetings was the large-scale use of
technology and analytics in all aspects of the business. For example, the company
uses the vast digital footprint available, along with other sources of data (such as
credit bureaus), to assess customer creditworthiness even before a loan application
is made. The company then approaches the customer with a pre-approved loan,
which not only improves customer satisfaction, but also significantly reduces the
turnaround time. For example,
the turnaround time for a pre-approved mortgage
is one day compared to 15 days for peers. BAF has already pre-approved loans for
0.9m doctors across the country, and targets to pre-approve for 2-3m SMEs in the
country over the next 18-24 months. BAF has upgraded its data systems, and is
improving its lending management systems to scale up the volume of CD loans
from 11m per year to 25m per year in the next three years.
Balancing growth and profitability with a unique strategy
The company categorizes its businesses into two segments:
‘scale builders’
and
‘profit maximizers’.
Scale builders are segments that have a large runway for
growth with minimal asset quality risk and moderate RoE (~15%). These include
segments like mortgages and commercial lending, among others. Profit maximizers
are the high-RoE (>20%) businesses. These include consumer durables and personal
loans, etc. The company balances growth across both segments, with a target to
maintain reasonable growth (20-25%) and strong returns (20% RoE). With a high
cross-sell ratio,
BAF is one of the few companies that do not look at return ratios
per product or segment, but instead per customer.
Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.