23 October 2017
Q2FY18 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Havells India
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
32,507
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,185
HAVL IN
Operating performance exceeds expectations
625
Operating performance impressive led by better-than-estimated margins:
340.8 / 5.0
Revenue grew 22.4% YoY to INR17.8b (est. of INR19b) in 2QFY18. However,
554 / 304
operating profit of INR2.6b (+26.3% YoY) was ahead of our estimate of
8/3/16
INR2.2b, led by price hikes in the cables & wires segment, lower ad spend
614.0
and withdrawal of dealer schemes. PAT of INR1.7b (+17.3% YoY) was above
38.4
CMP: INR542
TP: INR570 (+5%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2018E
83.2
10.7
7.2
11.5
20.5
59.0
19.5
19.7
47.1
9.2
2019E
100.4
13.6
8.9
14.3
23.9
67.2
21.2
21.9
38.0
8.1
2020E
114.7
15.8
10.5
16.8
17.7
76.8
21.9
22.8
32.3
7.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
our estimate of INR1.4b.
Core business (ex-Lloyd) growth muted on weak demand and low level of
restocking:
Core business revenue grew at a muted 4% YoY to INR15.1b
(+6.7% YoY, adj. for excise impact on exempted zones), below our estimate
of INR15.8b, due to weak demand in construction and industrial segments
and lower-than-expected restocking by retailers. Despite muted revenue
growth, operating profit increased 17% YoY to INR2.4b and adjusted EBIDTA
margin improved 180bp YoY to 15.8%, driven by price hikes taken in the
cables & wires segment, low advertising spend and withdrawal of dealer
schemes (2.3% v/s 3.3% in 2QFY17). Net profit improved 9% YoY to INR1.1b.
Lloyd’s consumer business grows 11% YoY:
The newly acquired Lloyd
business recorded revenue of INR2.7b (+11% YoY). Operating profit stood at
INR189m and EBIDTA margin at 7.0%. Cost-control measures led to margin
improvement on a QoQ basis (7.0% v/s 4.8% in 1QFY18).
Working capital cycle contraction led by increase in payable days:
Core net
working capital cycle contracted to -1 day from 30 days in 2QFY17. During
the quarter, creditor days were up to 89 from 48 in 2QFY17 due to vendor
financing and extended credit cycle provided by Lloyd’s vendors.
Valuation and view:
We raise our earnings estimate for FY18/19 by 5% each
to factor in better-than-estimated operating margins driven by cost-control
measures. We maintain our
Neutral
rating and raise our target price to
INR570, as we roll over our exit multiple to Dec-19E EPS of INR16.5.
FY17
2Q
3Q
14,522 15,060
8.7 13.2
2,034 1,907
7.6
4.0
14.0 12.7
308
301
19
15
323
264
-
189.5
2,030 1,877
572
537
28.2 28.6
1,458 1,530
22.0 27.6
1,458 1,135
21.1
-4.0
FY18
2Q
3QE
17,774 20,883
22.4 38.7
2,569 2,958
26.3 55.1
14.5 14.2
349
320
67
70
287
100
-
-
2,440 2,668
730
747
29.9 28.0
1,710 1,921
17.3 25.6
1,710 1,921
17.3 69.2
FY17 FY18E
4QE
25,978 61,353 83,240
51.9
6.2
35.7
3,424 8,241 10,675
49.1
9.2
29.5
13.2
13.4
12.8
309 1,196 1,314
79
122
250
115 1,343
850
-
3,151 8,266 9,962
803 2,298 2,769
25.5
27.8
27.8
2,347 5,969 7,192
147.9
-34.2
20.5
2,347 5,969 7,192
36.9
16.9
20.5
(INR Million)
MOSL
Var.
2QE
19,030
-6.6%
31.0
2,165
18.6%
6.5
11.4
330
30
120
0.0
1,925
26.7%
539
28.0
1,386
23.4%
-4.9
1,386
23.4%
-1.6
Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
Adj EBITDA
Change (%)
Adj EBITDA margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Extra-ordinary Items
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adj PAT
Change (%)
1Q
14,668
17.1
2,004
23.7
13.7
280
16
314
-
2,022
567
28.0
1,456
36.3
1,456
22.2
4Q
17,102
17.2
2,296
3.5
13.4
308
71
419
(768)
2,337
622
26.6
947
-74.1
1,715
5.0
1Q
18,605
26.8
1,724
-14.0
9.3
336
34
348
-
1,703
489
28.7
1,214
-16.6
1,214
-16.6
Ankur Sharma – Research Analyst
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah – Research Analyst
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.