Hindustan Unilever
BSE SENSEX
33,043
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,295
HUVR IN
2,164.3
2,750.9 / 42.4
1287 / 783
-1/25/35
1283
32.8
25 October 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR1,274 TP: INR1,440(+13%)
Remarkable growth in EBITDA augurs well for future
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
313.0 336.9 384.2
Net Sales
60.5
70.4
83.7
EBITDA
42.5
49.4
59.7
PAT
19.6
22.8
27.6
EPS (INR)
1.9
16.2
21.0
Gr. (%)
30.0
30.1
32.6
BV/Sh (INR)
66.5
75.9
88.0
RoE (%)
88.5
101.1 116.3
RoCE (%)
64.9
55.8
46.2
P/E (x)
42.5
42.3
39.1
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
HUVR’s 2QFY18 net sales rose 5.9% YoY to INR83.1b.
Domestic consumer
business grew 10% YoY, with 4% underlying volume growth. EBITDA increased
19.5% YoY to INR16.8b (est. of INR15.6b) and PAT (bei) by 14.2% YoY to
INR12.4b (est. of INR11.9b). EBIT margin expanded by 390bp YoY for Home
care, 130bp for Personal care, 110bp by Foods and 280bp for Refreshment.
Segmental performance:
Home care and Personal care revenues were up 13%
and 8% YoY, respectively. Sales of Foods and Refreshments – the relatively
small segments – were up 10% and 11% YoY, respectively.
Gross margin expanded 320bp YoY to 52.7%.
High ad spends (+150bp YoY) and
a slight increase in employee costs (+20bp YoY) were partially offset by lower
other expenditure (-70bp YoY). Thus, EBITDA margin expanded 230bp YoY to
20.2%. Comparable margin expanded 180bp YoY.
1HFY18 comparable domestic consumer business grew 8% YoY,
with EBITDA
margin expansion of 170bp YoY.
Concall highlights:
(1) Expect gradual improvement in rural demand. (2) Input
costs starting to inflate. Management expects further inflation. (3) Lever Ayush
now available nationally across channels, but with a focus on urban areas.
Valuation view:
Revival of rural growth is already underway, and is likely to
pick up steam. HUL has all the levers for earnings revival in place, especially
when the imminent rural recovery is allied with the benefits of low base of
preceding years, return of price part of sales growth, lower promotion spends
and continuing premiumization. 2QFY18 again demonstrated the company’s
ability to grow volumes in a difficult operating environment, increase
advertising levels and yet report robust profitable growth. Consequently, we
expect EPS CAGR of 18% over FY17-20, well above 6.1%/10.6%/10.1% on 3-
year/5-year/10-year EPS CAGR. Return ratios and dividend yield are best-of-
breed. We maintain target multiple at 10% premium to 3-year average
(effectively 48x Sep 2019E EPS), leading to a TP of INR1,440. Maintain
Buy.
(INR Million)
4Q
4.0
82,130
6.4
16,510
12.2
20.1
1,080
60
830
16,200
4,360
26.9
11,180
7.6
11,830
1Q
0.0
85,290
4.9
18,660
14.1
21.9
1,140
60
1,130
18,590
5,630
30.3
12,920
14.6
12,830
FY18
2Q
3QE
4.0
9.0
83,090 85,537
5.9
11.0
16,820 16,335
19.7
20.5
20.2
19.1
1,150
1,173
60
60
2,040
902
17,650 16,004
5,250
4,881
29.7
30.5
12,360 11,123
14.2
20.9
12,760 11,123
4QE
7.0
89,461
8.9
18,543
12.3
20.7
1,148
62
946
18,279
5,396
29.5
12,883
15.2
12,883
FY17 Ind AS FY18 Ind AS Estimate
Variance
2QE
0.8
5.1
4.0
318,887
343,377
78,427
5.9%
2.7
7.7
0.0
60,463
70,358
15,615
7.7%
5.1
16.4
11.2
19.0
20.5
19.9
3,958
4,611
1,163
219
242
60
5,254
5,018
2,781
61,541
70,522
17,173
2.8%
19,058
21,157
5,238
31.0
30.0
30.5
42,474
49,366
11,935
3.6%
3.2
16.2
10.3
44,893
49,366
11,935
Quarterly performance
Y/E March
Domestic volume growth (%)
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
EBITDA
YoY Cha nge (%)
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
Adjusted PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
Reported Profit
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
4.0
81,270
3.6
16,347
8.1
20.1
933
60
1,076
16,431
5,411
32.9
11,277
6.1
11,727
FY17
2Q
3Q
-1.0
-4.0
78,427 77,060
1.4
-0.7
14,046 13,560
5.1
-5.2
17.9
17.6
945
1,000
49
50
2,528
820
15,580 13,330
4,807
4,480
30.9
33.6
10,818
9,199
9.3
-10.2
10,956 10,380
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research Analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1545
Vishal Punmiya – Research Analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1547
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.