Kotak Mahindra Bank
BSE SENSEX
33,043
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,295
KMB IN
Steady quarter; loan growth gaining momentum
1,839
Standalone results:
PAT grew 22% YoY to INR9.94b (3% miss). Operating
1,853 / 28.5
profit increased 20% YoY, led by healthy NII growth (+16% YoY, even as NIM
1114 / 692
shrunk 17bp QoQ to 4.33%), steady fee income growth (+29% YoY) and
-5/0/11
controlled operating expenses. Asset quality remains healthy, with the GNPL
2103
ratio declining by 11bp QoQ to 2.47% and the coverage ratio by 260bp QoQ
69.9
25 October 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials
CMP: INR1,010
TP: INR1,179(+17%)
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2018E 2019E
NII
93.4 112.0
OP
71.3
90.4
Cons. NP
61.0
79.1
Cons. EPS (INR)
32.1
41.6
EPS Gr. (%)
19.4
29.7
Cons. BV. (INR)
232
272
Cons. RoE (%)
14.8
16.5
RoA (%)
1.8
1.9
Payout (%)
4.7
4.7
Valuations
P/E(X) (Cons.)
31.5
24.3
P/BV (X) (Cons.)
4.3
3.7
Div. Yield (%)
0.1
0.1
2020E
134.6
114.6
98.8
51.9
25.0
323
17.4
2.0
4.7
19.4
3.1
0.1
to 49.7%. The bank received RBI inspection report and no divergence was
reported as of March 2017.
Loan growth gained momentum, coming in at 21% YoY (+7% QoQ), led by
strong traction in CV, small business and personal banking segments.
Deposit growth stood at 17% YoY/1% QoQ.
Other highlights: a) CASA growth remained strong at 44% YoY (62% YoY
growth in SA deposits). CASA ratio thus increased 390bp QoQ to 47.8%. b)
SMA2 advances declined to 16bp of loans v/s 21bp in 1QFY18, while OSRL
declined to INR650m (4bp of loans).
Other businesses:
a) Profitability in the securities business improved to
INR1.18b, up 23% YoY, while Kotak Life Insurance also reported strong
earnings growth. b) K-Sec market share stood at 1.9% (stable QoQ). c) Asset
management business average AUM increased 9% QoQ (+57% YoY), led by
strong inflows in equity AUM (+102% YoY).
Valuation and view:
The bank’s share in consolidated profits now stands at
~69% (67.6% in 2QFY17), and we expect this to increase further as synergy
benefits show up fully in FY18. Among subsidiaries, KM Securities, KM Life
Insurance and Kotak AMC reported healthy earnings growth. We expect ~26%
earnings CAGR over FY17-19, led by a revival in loan growth and controlled opex.
Strong presence across geographies/products and healthy capitalization (Tier1 of
~19%) place the bank in a sweet spot to capitalize on growth opportunities and
gain market share. Comfort on asset quality remains high, with no SDR/5:25,
negligible SMA2 (16bp) and OSRL (4bp). At our SOTP based TP of INR1,179, KMB
will trade at 4.0x Sep19E consolidated BV.
Buy.
FY17
2Q
FY18E
2Q
23,127
15.9
17,248
19.8
9,943
22.3
FY17
3Q
23,530
14.8
18,501
21.1
10,554
20.0
4Q
24,334
12.6
19,613
15.2
11,715
20.0
1,619
811
250
1,333
295
507
0
1,041
-129
17,441
24.2
81,261
17.8
59,848
48.1
34,115
63.2
5,150
1,960
460
3,610
860
560
125
3,030
-385
49,485
43.0
93,445
15.0
71,316
19.2
41,340
21.2
6,014
2,461
490
5,002
1,032
1,163
0
4,091
-600
60,991
23.3
FY18E
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
1Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
Kotak Bank (standalone)
Net Interest Income
19,191
19,954
20,503
21,614
22,456
% Cha nge (Y-o-Y)
20.1
18.9
16.1
16.4
17.0
Operating Profit
13,150
14,401
15,277
17,020
15,954
% Cha nge (Y-o-Y)
120.3
37.8
26.8
42.5
21.3
Net Profit
7,420
8,133
8,798
9,765
9,127
% Cha nge (Y-o-Y)
291.0
42.8
38.6
40.3
23.0
Other Businesses
Kota k Pri me
1,200
1,300
1,330
1,330
1,320
Kota k Ma h. Inves tments
400
530
480
560
450
Kota k Ma h. Ca pi ta l Co
230
50
70
110
50
Kota k Securi ti es
600
960
850
1,210
1,250
Interna ti ona l s ubs
130
310
220
210
170
Kota k Ma h. AMC & Trus tee Co.
190
70
160
130
150
Kota k Inves tment Advi s ors
110
10
0
0
0
Kota k OM Li fe Ins ura nce
710
630
680
1,010
1,030
Con.a dj a nd MI
-240
30
80
-280
-80
Conso. PAT
10,750
12,023
12,668
14,045
13,467
% Cha nge (Y-o-Y)
108.0
27.4
33.9
33.2
25.3
E: MOSL Es ti ma tes , Qua rterl y numbers va ry from ful l yea r number due to di fference
1,500
1,575
550
650
-10
200
1,180
1,239
280
287
230
276
0
0
1,000
1,020
-266
-125
14,407
15,676
19.8
23.7
i n reporti ng
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540|Anirvan
Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91223982 5505
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.