25 October 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials
RBL Bank
Buy
BSE SENSEX
33,043
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg. Val, INR m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,295
RBL IN
Strong growth with improving profitability and healthy asset quality
361.7
RBL’s 2QFY18 PAT increased 68% YoY (7% below estimate), mainly due to
1,33.1 /2.1
opex missing estimates by 5% (higher expansion costs), despite total income
600 / 320
(INR6.6b, +4%/+40% QoQ/YoY) being largely in line with estimates. Key
-2/-15/35
positives are: a) Loan growth of 8% QoQ and 35% YoY. b) Fee income growth
983
of 38% YoY, driven by a 150% increase in distribution/CC fees. c) Margin
100.0
CMP: INR524
TP: INR665 (+27%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2018E 2019E
NII
17.2
21.8
OP
13.4
17.8
NP
6.7
9.4
NIM (%)
3.4
3.2
EPS (INR)
16.4
23.0
BV/Sh. (INR)
159.0
178.0
ABV/Sh. (INR)
154.3
171.7
RoE (%)
12.4
13.7
RoA (%)
1.2
1.3
Valuations
P/E(X)
32.1
22.8
P/BV (X)
3.3
2.9
P/ABV (X)
3.4
3.1
Div. Yield (%)
0.5
0.7
2020E
28.8
23.6
12.6
3.2
30.8
203.4
195.9
16.2
1.3
17.0
2.6
2.7
0.9
improvement of 20bp QoQ to 3.7%, driven partly by a reduction in cost of
funds from CASA inflows and partly by capital from QIP.
Absolute GNPAs increased 6% QoQ (+77% YoY) to 1.44% of loans (-2bp
QoQ). Sequential decline in asset quality was caused by a 30%/20% increase
in DB&FI/BBB portfolios, where GNPA ratios stood at 2.81%/1.49%
(+42bp/+8bp QoQ), while asset quality in Commercial Banking improved
with a decline in GNPA to 2% from 2.6% in the earlier quarter.
Loan growth was led by non-wholesale book growth of 41% YoY, increasing
the share of non-wholesale to 40.4% from 38.8% a year ago. Strong CASA
growth of 56% YoY (ahead of deposit growth of 31% YoY) led to CASA ratio
improving 380bp YoY (+160bp QoQ) to 23.7%.
Other highlights:
a) PAR>90 dpd in micro-banking stood at 4.68% (the bank
maintained PAR guidance of 5% and credit cost guidance of 2.5% on this
book). b) Post QIP in August 2017, Tier 1 ratio stood at 13.87%. c) Fees to
assets improved 10bp QoQ to 1.6%. d) Cost to core income ratio stood at
57% v/s 58% in 1Q.
Valuation view:
With a diverse product portfolio, no legacy issues, highly
capable management and low market share, we expect RBL to report industry-
leading loan CAGR of ~35% over FY17-20. We expect stable/improving margins
due to a changing loan mix toward high-yielding loans, a sharp fall in cost of bulk
deposits and an improvement in the CD ratio. Strong balance sheet growth is
expected to drive operating leverage. We cut FY18E PAT by ~5% to account for
continued high expansion costs, and maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR665 based on
3.5x Sept-19E BV.
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540|Anirvan
Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91223982 5505
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.