1 November 2017
Q2FY18 Results Update | Sector: Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Buy
BSE SENSEX
33,600
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
our est., but flat EBITDA margin of 34.4% implies a beat of 180bp to our est.
Lean cost structure supports strong EBITDA growth:
Bharti has created a
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
lean cost structure. This is evident from Africa’s 800bp margin improvement
Y/E Mar
954.7 875.8 946.3
Net Sales
in the last four quarters, despite a 2% revenue decline YoY. India wireless too
353.3 314.5 348.1
EBITDA
has seen a 7%/1% YoY decline in network/employee cost, despite accelerated
45.3
15.0
25.8
PAT
network rollout. We believe this offers Bharti strong ARPU sensitivity to
11.3
3.8
6.5
EPS (INR)
EBITDA, which should drive healthy operating leverage, as ARPU recovers in
-4.6 -66.9
72.2
Gr. (%)
FY19E.
168.8 171.0 176.3
BV/Sh (INR)
Expect India ARPU recovery in FY19 to drive growth:
RJio has taken four
6.8
2.2
3.7
RoE (%)
price actions since turning paid, signaling ARPU accretion, which has been
5.4
3.8
4.9
RoCE (%)
hostage to competition. Post IUC and Jiophone launch impact in 2HFY18, we
47.5 143.4
83.3
P/E (x)
believe ARPUs should improve from FY19. Bharti’s strong spectrum/data
3.2
3.1
3.1
P/BV (x)
network portfolio and data volume of meager 260m GB (i.e. less than one
fifth of RJio) indicate a huge scope to improve ARPUs (26% below pre-RJio
launch) through value-accretive offerings. Management’s guidance of 25%
Estimate change
capex increase to INR250b should therefore be more front-loading and
TP change
reduce capex beyond 3-4 quarters.
Rating change
Maintain Buy with revised TP of INR680:
We have revised consol. EBITDA by
2/5% for FY18/19E due to higher Africa EBITDA. We expect consol. EBITDA
growth of -11%/11% in FY18/19E on an 8% India wireless EBITDA recovery in
FY19E. We have revised our SOTP-based TP to INR680 v/s INR490 earlier, led
by a) reducing Africa biz’s equity value to -INR25 v/s -INR80 earlier; and b)
improving India biz’s equity value to INR583, assigning 10.5x EV/EBITDA on
Sept’19 EBITDA. Bharti can offer 7-8% FCF yield as the market bottoms out.
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Gross Revenue
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
MI & P/L of Asso. Cos.
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
1Q
2Q
2,55,465 2,46,515
7.9
3.4
1,59,985 1,52,113
95,480 94,402
37.4
38.3
50,402 49,560
19,399 19,057
2,787
1,568
28,466 27,353
3,536
66
24,930 27,287
10,089 11,136
40.5
40.8
222
1,544
14,619 14,607
16,724 14,646
70.7
25.9
6.5
5.9
FY17
FY18
FY17
9,54,683
-1.1
6,01,386
3,53,297
37.0
1,97,730
76,974
10,336
88,929
11,697
77,232
34,819
45.1
4,416
37,997
45,291
-4.6
4.7
FY18E
8,75,838
-8.3
5,61,372
3,14,466
35.9
2,01,231
81,267
15,419
47,386
2,289
45,097
21,701
48.1
9,539
13,857
15,008
-66.9
1.7
2QFY18E
2,16,555
-12.2
1,41,536
75,018
34.6
49,282
21,459
3,698
7,975
0
7,975
4,380
54.9
1,458
2,138
2,138
-85.4
1.0
Var (%)
0.6
-2.1
5.6
173.6
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3QE
4QE
2,33,357 2,19,346 2,19,581 2,17,769 2,16,952 2,21,535
-3.0
-12.1
-14.0
-11.7
-7.0
1.0
1,48,542 1,40,746 1,41,997 1,38,549 1,39,102 1,41,724
84,815 78,600 77,584 79,220 77,851 79,811
36.3
35.8
35.3
36.4
35.9
36.0
48,350 49,418 48,192 46,873 53,083 53,083
19,356 19,162 18,274 23,266 19,985 19,742
3,487
2,494
3,698
3,907
3,907
3,907
20,596 12,514 14,816 12,988
8,689
10,893
2,040
6,055
503
1,786
0
0
18,556
6,459
14,313 11,202
8,689
10,893
11,841
1,753
8,136
5,341
3,650
4,575
63.8
27.1
56.8
47.7
42.0
42.0
1,678
972
2,504
2,431
2,043
2,561
5,037
3,734
3,673
3,430
2,997
3,757
5,775
8,146
3,890
4,364
2,997
3,757
-54.6
-45.5
-76.7
-70.2
-48.1
-53.9
2.5
3.7
1.8
2.0
1.4
1.7
S&P CNX
10,441
BHARTI IN
Cost-structuring measures show results
3,997
Africa delivers, finally:
Consol. EBITDA of INR79.2b was up only 2% QoQ (-
2,152.2 / 33.3
16% YoY, 6% beat) due to a 1% QoQ drop in revenue. Africa surprised with a
545 / 284
7% QoQ revenue jump (-2% YoY) to INR52b, backed by a 5% dollar ARPU rise;
31/44/49
Africa EBITDA surged 23% QoQ to INR16.8b on a leaner cost structure. India
1,733.5
wireless revenue drop of 5% QoQ (-17% YoY) to INR122.5b was in line with
32.9
CMP: INR538
TP: INR680 (+26%)
62.9
40.5
60.4
Aliasgar Shakir – Research analyst
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 022 6129 1565
Hafeez Patel – Research analyst
(Hafeez.Patel@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3010 2611
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.