1 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Technology
Tech Mahindra
Buy
BSE SENSEX
33,600
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,441
TECHM IN
Profitability resurrection on track
976
Enterprise led growth:
TECHM’s 2QFY18 revenue of USD1,179m grew 3.6%
477.2 / 7.4
QoQ. In CC terms, growth at 2.3% QoQ was a tad ahead of our estimate of
515 / 358
+1.7% and implied cross-currency tailwinds of 130bp. The driver this quarter
0/5/-8
was Enterprise, which saw strong growth of 6.3% QoQ. Even excluding the
1290
integration of HCI, the segment grew 3.9% QoQ. While Telecom was flat in 2Q,
63.9
CMP: INR489
TP: INR560(+15%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
291.4
309.1
Net Sales
41.8
43.6
EBITDA
27.5
31.8
PAT
30.9
35.8
EPS (INR)
-11.9
15.9
Gr. (%)
187.9
196.9
BV/Sh (INR)
18.4
18.9
RoE (%)
15.2
15.6
RoCE (%)
15.8
13.7
P/E (x)
2.6
2.5
P/BV (x)
2019E
346.9
50.6
33.5
37.7
5.3
223.3
18.2
15.2
13.0
2.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
it is expected to pick-up in 2HFY18 on account of seasonal support and
stability in LCC.
Steep margin improvement despite wage hikes:
This was the second quarter
that TECHM saw a 4% reduction in Software Professionals headcount (3,409
employees), cost benefits from which aided the 80bp EBITDA margin beat to
14.5%, also supported by the absence of visa expenses and an increase in
utilization (+400bp QoQ). PAT at INR8.4b grew 4.7% QoQ, against our
expectation of -2.7%, primarily led by the beat on profitability and higher
other income aided by favorable hedge positions.
Multiple levers yet in hand:
The margin trajectory has been looking upward
for TECHM since the past two quarters – a cumulative improvement of 250bp
from 12% in 4QFY17. With a seasonally strong 2H coming up, the path is not
likely to alter in the near term. Even beyond that period, although utilization
has little juice to squeeze out from current levels, visibility of profitability
recovery stems out of automation, offshoring, yield management, and
improved margins in subsidiaries.
Valuation view:
Our earnings estimates for FY18/19 are up 5.5/2.5%, led by
the 2Q beat, but mildly negated by lower other income (a result of outflow of
USD140m for the IP partnership struck this quarter, details of which remain
opaque for now). TECHM trades at 13.7/13.0x FY18/19E earnings. The
remainder tailwinds and consequent improvement of profitability are likely to
feed positively into the valuation multiple, resulting in us valuing forward
earnings at 14x (v/s 13x earlier) to derive a price target of INR560, upside of
15%. Maintain
Buy.
(
FY18E
2Q
3Q
4Q
1,179
1,201
1,228
3.6
1.9
2.2
76,064 78,675 81,039
6.1
4.1
8.1
29.3
30.9
31.2
14.7
16.5
13.8
11,057 11,352 11,883
14.5
14.4
14.7
11.0
11.4
11.6
3,222
1,343
1,260
386
326
311
25.3
23.5
23.5
8,362
7,572
7,920
4.7
-9.4
4.6
29.7
-11.5
34.7
9.4
8.5
8.9
117,225 122,008 124,525
81.0
78.6
79.5
16.0
35.9
33.4
33.9
FY17
4,351
7.8
291,408
10.0
29.4
15.1
41,843
14.4
11.0
6,836
1,286
26.0
27,447
-12.0
31.9
117,693
77.5
36.2
Est.
2Q
1,175
3.3
75,582
5.5
28.4
14.7
10,356
13.7
10.4
2,706
311
23.5
7,772
-2.7
20.5
8.7
121,105
78.7
36.4
bp)
0.3
33bp
0.6
67bp
88bp
5bp
6.8
84bp
63bp
19.0
24.2
7.6
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Revenue (USD m)
QoQ (%)
Revenue (INR m)
YoY (%)
GPM (%)
SGA (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
EBIT Ma rgi n (%)
Othe r i ncome
Inte re s t e xpe ns e
ETR (%)
PAT excl. BT amort & EOI
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
EPS (INR)
Headcount
Uti l e xcl . tra i ne e s (%)
Attri ti on (%)
Offs hore re v. (%)
FY17
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
1,032
1,072
1,116
1,131
1,138
0.9
4.0
4.1
1.4
0.6
69,209 71,674 75,575 74,950 73,361
10.0
8.3
12.8
8.9
6.0
29.5
30.6
30.7
26.9
28.0
14.6
15.7
15.0
14.9
15.3
10,290 10,701 11,865
8,987
9,347
14.9
14.9
15.7
12.0
12.7
12.0
11.5
12.4
8.2
9.4
1,519
1,387
1,552
2,378
4,106
274
345
349
318
370
25.9
30.8
20.2
28.2
25.4
6,561
6,447
8,560
5,879
7,985
-23.5
-1.7
32.8
-31.3
35.8
5.4
-17.9
12.8
-31.5
21.7
7.4
7.3
9.6
6.6
9.0
107,216 111,743 117,095 117,693 115,990
78.0
78.0
77.0
77.0
77.0
21.0
19.0
18.0
17.0
17.0
36.6
36.5
36.1
35.7
36.3
-3.2
226bp
-48bp
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra – Research Analyst
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele – Research Analyst
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531