Divi's Laboratories
BSE SENSEX
33,600
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,441
DIVI IN
Regulatory issues impact revenues
265
Revenue declined 10% YoY (~4% miss), while EBITDA of INR2.8b was ~8%
244.3 / 3.8
below our estimate. Apart from loss of sales due to the import alert, lower
1,319 / 533
volumes due to batch-by-batch testing at Unit-2 (for exempted product list)
0/35/-49
1,759.05
contributed to muted revenue performance. EBITDA margin contracted
47.9
~600bp YoY to 31.1% due to lower turnover, and remediation expense of
1 November 2017
Q2FY18 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR920
TP: INR800 (-13%)
Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
41.0
36.7
EBITDA
14.3
11.7
PAT
10.6
8.6
EPS (INR)
39.9
32.4
Gr. (%)
-5.8
-18.9
BV/Sh (INR)
201.8
194.8
RoE (%)
22.0
16.3
RoCE (%)
21.8
16.3
P/E (x)
23.0
28.4
P/BV (x)
4.6
4.7
2019E
42.9
15.0
10.7
40.3
24.4
217.0
19.6
19.5
22.8
4.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
~INR170m related to the import alert at Unit II. PAT of INR2.1b (down ~32%
YoY) was ~4% below our estimate.
Remediation over at Unit-2:
DIVI has already completed remediation for
observations highlighted by the USFDA in a re-inspection. Management too
has met the USFDA in late Oct-17. The company believes that till the import
alert resolution does not happen, the sales run-rate will remain at 2Q levels.
Capex plan:
DIVI spent ~INR4.5b as capital work in progress till end-FY17 to
expand capacity at Unit-1 and 2. The company plans to spend ~INR3.65b in
FY18 (~INR1.6b already spent in 1H) for capacity expansion. This expanded
capacity will be ready for commercial use in FY19.
Unit-1 USFDA inspection is due:
Unit-1 accounts for 35% of total revenue,
and its US exposure stands at ~11% of total revenues. This plant was last
inspected in June 2014, and an inspection is due over the coming few days.
It will be critical for the company to come out clear in the USFDA inspection
(particularly since the FDA had cited data integrity issues at Unit-2).
Buyback/special dividend could be near-term trigger:
DIVI has cash of
~INR17b. There is a possibility of a buyback/special dividend (like DRRD) in
the near term, which could provide near-term support to the stock price.
Things moving on right track, but resolution timeline still uncertain:
Although an early re-inspection of Unit-2 is a positive surprise, we will wait
to review the 483s. We maintain
Neutral
with a target price of INR800 @
18x FY19E PER (v/s INR720 @ 18x FY19E PER). We have cut our FY18E EPS
due to a weak 1H performance and slower ramp-up of sales in 2H as well.
Kumar Saurabh – Research analyst
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Ankeet Pandya – Research analyst
(Ankeet.Pandya@MotilalOswal.com )
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.