Sector Update| 1 November 2017
Automobiles
Maruti Suzuki
CMP: INR8,235
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
TP: INR9,466 (+15%)
Buy
MSIL IN
302.1
Domestic sales grew 9.9% YoY to 136k
2488/38.5
8283/4770
MSIL’s Sep-17 wholesales came in at 146,446 units (+9.5% YoY), marginally lower than
-4/13/20
our estimate of 150,456 units. YTD growth was at 14.7%, with a residual monthly run-
Volumes up 9.5% YoY to 146.4k units (below est. of 150.5k)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
800.4 956.2 1,103.0
EBITDA
124.8 159.1 183.8
Adj. PAT
85.3 113.3 133.3
Adj. EPS
(INR)*
288.1 381.0 447.8
EPS Gr. (%)
15.8 32.3
17.5
BV/Sh. (INR) 1,378 1,632 1,930
RoE (%)
20.5 23.0
22.9
RoCE (%)
28.6 31.7
31.4
Payout (%)
36.2 32.1
32.7
Valuations
P/E (x)
28.6 21.6
18.4
P/CE (x)
21.7 17.0
14.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.3 13.1
10.9
Div. Yield (%)
1.0
1.2
1.5
*Cons.
Snapshot of volumes for Oct-17
YoY
Company Sales
Maruti Suzuki
LCVs
Vans
Mini Segment
Compact (incl
Dzire Tour)
Mid Size - CIAZ
UVs
Total Domestic
Export
Oct-17 Oct-16
146,446 133,793
872
80
12,669 12,790
32,490 33,929
62,480 52,597
4,107 6,360
23,382 18,008
136,000 123,764
10,446 10,029
rate of 153k units.
Domestic volumes grew 9.9% YoY to 136k (est. of 139.5k), led by growth in the
compact (+18.8% YoY) and UV (+29.8% YoY) segments.
Growth in the compact segment was led by Baleno and new Dzire, while that in UVs
was led by Brezza and new S-cross.
Ciaz sales declined 35.4% YoY to 4.1k (est. of 4.8k).
Export volumes increased 4.2% YoY to 10,446 units (est. of 11,000 units).
The stock trades at 28.6x/21.6x FY18E/19E consol. EPS of ~INR281/375. Maintain Buy.
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
Sep-17
FY18YTD FY17YTD
chg
(%) chg
9.5
163,071 -10.2 1,033,135 900,706
879
-0.8
4,229
163
-0.9
13,735 -7.8
91,788 90,545
-4.2
38,479 -15.6 252,217 241,588
18.8
-35.4
29.8
9.9
4.2
72,804
5,603
19,900
151,400
11,671
-14.2
-26.7
17.5
-10.2
-10.5
427,726
38,242
147,630
961,832
71,303
348,901
37,970
109,967
829,134
71,572
(%)
chg
14.7
1.4
4.4
22.6
0.7
34.2
16.0
-0.4
FY18
estimate
1,798,133
8,000
161,802
432,948
760,103
63,159
245,218
1,671,231
126,902
Residual
Growth
Gr. (%)
(%)
14.6
14.5
6.4
4.6
30.0
-2.0
25.3
15.7
2.3
13.9
4.8
40.9
-5.9
13.8
15.3
5.9
Residual FY18 YTD
Monthly Monthly
Run rate Run rate
153,000 147,591
754
604
14,003 13,113
36,146 36,031
66,475
4,983
19,518
141,880
11,120
61,104
5,463
21,090
137,405
10,186
Jinesh Gandhi - Research analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Research analyst: Deep Shah
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1533 /
Suneeta Kamath
(Suneeta.Kamath@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129
1534
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.