Glenmark Pharma
BSE SENSEX
33,573
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg. Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,424
GNP IN
US
282
183.0 / 2.8
973 / 568
-2/-39/-54
730.6
53.5
3 November 2017
Q2FY18 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR627
TP: INR650(+4%)
Neutral
growth to pick up; high debt remains an overhang
Net sales increased marginally by ~2% YoY (-5% QoQ) to INR22.2b (4% miss).
EBITDA declined ~11% YoY to INR3.6b (2% beat), with the margin coming in
at 16% (-230bp YoY, -740bp QoQ). Employee expenses included annual
employee bonus of ~INR1.1b in 2Q. Adjusted for this, EBITDA came in below
the previous quarter’s level (note that 1QFY18 included Zetia sales with
>80% GM). According to management, the improvement in margins
(adjusted for employee bonus) can largely be attributed to cost
rationalization.
US – key launches to drive growth; base business erosion to continue:
US
sales for GNP stood at USD113m, significantly below USD162m in 1QFY18,
due to loss of Zetia exclusivity. The company expects US sales to reach
>USD125m in 3Q, led by ramp-up of existing launches (no new launches
assumed). We expect US sales to inch up in 2H on the back of Statera and
Nitro Glycerin ramp-ups and the expected launch of Welchol and Epiduo.
However, base business erosion for GNP remained high at ~13% YoY. It
reported domestic growth of ~8% YoY (adjusted for excise duty impact).
Earnings call highlights:
1) GNP revised down its sales growth guidance for
FY18 to ~8%, from 8-10% previously. EBITDA margin guidance is intact (flat
YoY). 2) Net debt increased to INR34.98b from ~INR33.6b in 1QFY18; the
company expects net debt to come down to INR33.5b by end-FY18. 3) R&D
as % of sales is expected to be 11% in FY18. 4) LATAM recorded >20% YoY
growth (excluding Venezuela). 5) Effective tax rate in FY18 to be ~25%. 6)
GBS- 301 filing to happen in 1QCY18 in US. 7) Cash tax outflow remained
high in the quarter at ~INR1.8b.
Valuation view:
Weak cash flow conversion and high net debt remain key
concerns for GNP. Maintain
Neutral
with a TP of INR650 @ 15x FY19E EPS.
We cut FY18/19E EPS by 12/ 17%, as we build in slower ramp-up in margins
(GNP expects a challenging business outlook in the US for next two years at
least). Any big in-licensing deal in innovation business could act as a positive
catalyst.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
89.7
94.4
EBITDA
18.2
18.0
PAT
11.1
10.7
EPS (INR)
39.3
37.9
Gr. (%)
58.0
-3.4
BV/Sh (INR)
159.2
193.5
RoE (%)
24.7
19.6
RoCE (%)
19.1
17.1
P/E (x)
16.0
16.5
P/BV (x)
3.9
3.2
2019E
106.9
19.6
12.1
42.8
12.9
232.7
18.4
19.2
14.6
2.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Kumar Saurabh – Research analyst
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.