Union Bank of India
BSE SENSEX
33,686
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,453
UNBK IN
Loss
led by muted PPoP growth and high provisions
687
UNBK reported a loss of INR15.3b. PPoP growth of -6%/+7% QoQ/YoY was
114.6 / 1.7
nullified by elevated provisions of INR35.5b (119% YoY). Provisions included
205 / 116
INR327m of additional provisions towards standard accounts in telecom and
30/-20/4
power sector; however, NPA provisions also remained elevated at INR34.6b,
740
owing to historically high write-offs of INR11.1b.
34.6
NII growth was muted at 3%/2% QoQ/YoY, impacted by INR738m of interest
4 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials
CMP: INR173 TP: INR175(+1%)
Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2018E 2019E
NII
95.1
103
OP
73.2
77.9
NP
-9.8
4.3
EPS (INR)
-13.5
6.0
EPS Gr. (%)
-267.3 -144.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
283.4
289
RoE (%)
-4.7
2.1
RoA (%)
-0.2
0.1
P/E(X)
-12.8
29.1
P/BV (X)
0.61
0.60
2020E
119
90.4
14.2
19.5
227.3
306
6.6
0.2
8.9
0.57
reversals on SDR/S4A accounts. Domestic/Global NIM came in at
2.19%/2.08% (2.20%/2.06% in 1QFY18). Trading gains of INR4.8b (37% of
other income) led to 7% growth in other income.
Gross slippages moderated to INR26.9b (4.1% slippage ratio) vs INR44.5b
last quarter, while recoveries and upgrades were subdued at INR5.8b,
leading to net slippage ratio of 3.03% (5.8% in 1Q). Total pool of NSL (NNPL +
OSRL + other stressed loans) increased to INR353.8b (12.2% of advances) on
a sluggish loan book. Agri slippages moderated to INR4.2b (INR6.9b in 1Q). 5
large accounts contributed INR10b (of which 2 were steel accounts and 1
construction account)
Other highlights:
(1) RAM portfolio grew 9% YoY, led by 19% growth in retail
(2) CASA deposits grew 14% YoY, led by 19% growth in SA deposits. Avg.
daily CASA ratio improved marginally QoQ to 34.1%.
Valuation and view:
Balance sheet recalibration is evident from stronger
focus on RAM portfolio. However, ageing of the NPL portfolio and continued
elevated slippages and credit costs will pressurize earnings. Resultantly, we
expect RoA/RoE to remain sub-optimal at 0.3/6% for FY19. We cut earnings
sharply for FY18/19E to factor in pressure on NIMs and higher credit costs.
Maintain
Neutral
with a TP of INR175 (0.6x Sept 19 BV) view of prolonged
pressure on profitability.
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393 |
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Union Bank of India
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance (INR m)
Y/E March
Net Interest Income
% Change (YoY)
Other Income
Net Income
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
% Change (YoY)
Other Provisions
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
% Change (YoY)
2QFY18A 2QFY18E
23,207
23,197
2
2
12,173
12,521
35,381
35,717
15,991
19,390
7
35,547
-16,157
-850
-15,307
-966
17,094
18,623
2
17,000
1,623
454
1,169
-34
Var. (%)
0
-3
-1
-6
4
109
-1,095
-287
-1,410
Employee expenses beat as bank has adequate provisions
Beat led by controlled opex
Elevated write-offs led to provisions miss
Comments
Higher provisioning led to PAT miss despite PPoP beat
Source: MOSL, Company
Absolute net stressed loans increased QoQ; Net stressed loans at 12.2% vs
12.0% in 1Q
Slippages came in at INR26.9b with spike in MSME slippages (INR6.5b vs.
INR5.9b in 1Q). Corporate slippages were down 50% QoQ to INR14.9b vs
INR29.7b last quarter
GNPA/NNPA decreased 28bp/77bp QoQ to 12.3%/6.7% as the company wrote
off INR11.1b of loans, a 50 quarter high. Recoveries and upgrades were muted
at INR5.8b. SMA2 book for the quarter stood at INR136.15b (vs INR 187.1b in
2QFY17).
Gross stress loans increased 4% QoQ to INR548.1b (17.8% of gross advances, v/s
17.5% in 1Q). Net stressed loans increased QoQ to INR353.8b (12.2% of loans
v/s 12.0% in 1Q). Standard restructured, SDR, 5:25, S4A and SR book stood at
1.8%/1.7%/1.18%/0.6% and 0.3% of loans respectively.
Other highlights
Global NIM came in at 2.08%. Cost of funds decreased QoQ to 4.89% (vs 5.03%
in 1QFY18) but was negated by fall in yield on advances to 7.91% (vs 8.05% last
quarter)
Healthy growth in key focus areas:
Retail segment (+19% YoY), MSME (+7%
YoY) and Agriculture (+4% YoY). Share of RAM advances decreased to 54.1% v/s
55.4%/54.9% in 1QFY18/2QFY17. Within industries, infrastructure (+32% YoY)
and trade (+19% YoY) demonstrated strong growth.
CASA grew by 14% YoY and CASA ratio declined 190bp QoQ to 33.6%, led by
strong SA deposit mobilization (+19% YoY). Average daily CASA ratio stood at
34.1% v/s 33.9% in 1QFY18.
4 November 2017
2

Union Bank of India
2QFY18 conference call highlights
P&L related
Employee expenses have gone down because they have adequate provisions
The bank guided to 3.3% credit cost for FY18 and 2.25% NIM by 4QFY18
The bank is targeting a cost income ratio of ~40%
B/S related
The bank guided to strong traction in home loan growth for the next 2 years
Cost of funds has a disadvantage due to bulk of 2 year TDs at 9%, will decline
with re-pricing of the same
Average ticket size in MSME is INR5m
The bank has INR200b of exposure to private power
Asset quality related
2QFY18 slippages included INR10b from top 5 accounts (of which 2 steel, 1
construction)
Increase in restructured book was because in many project loans, DCCO went
above 2 years
Stressed asset overlaps: SDR book – INR13.83b (10 accounts) overlap with OSRL,
S4A book –INR7.65b (2 accounts) overlap with OSRL, 5:25 book – 10% overlap
with OSRL
SR book stands at INR10b
2QFY18 SMA2 book at INR136.15b, compared to INR187.1b in 2QFY17. SMA2
book to continue declining further
70% NNPA is below INR500m
Slippages over next 2 quarters to be at similar level as 2Q. Recoveries and
upgrades should be significantly higher in 2H (at least INR20b). GNPA should be
< 13%
The bank is targeting FY18 delinquency of 4.5% for FY18, and PCR above 60% by
FY18
INR47b (18 accounts) of exposure to the 2nd list of accounts given by the RBI
SDR account during the quarter has total account size of INR30b
Other business updates
The bank plans to raise INR20b of equity in 1st tranche (FY18), total approval for
INR45b of capital
4 November 2017
3

Union Bank of India
Maintain Neutral with a
target price of INR175 (0.6x
Sept 19 BV)
Valuation and view
We like management’s key focus areas of (a) to consolidate loan book (Guidance
of +8-10% YoY in FY18) (b) focus on core profitability (c) focus on cost
rationalization, and (d) capital conservation. Moderate balance sheet growth
will keep the CASA ratio in tact which in turn will cushion margins.
Strong focus of the bank on recoveries, helped by enabling resolutions by the
RBI will help in stable/improving asset quality trends. However, legacy large
corporate exposures remain a key overhang, and elevated net stress additions
are expected to continue. Ageing of NPLs will continue to impact NIM and
create pressure on credit cost. As a result we expect RoA/RoE to remain at sub
optimal levels at 0.3/6% for FY18.
We cut earnings estimates sharply FY18/19 (building in loss of INR 9.8b for FY18,
and 69% PAT estimate cut for FY19) to build in higher credit costs and
suppressed NIM. Tier 1 ratio stands at 8.5%. We maintain neutral with a TP of
INR175 (0.6x Sept 19 BV). Key assumptions are risk free rate of 7%, beta of 1.6,
cost of equity of 15%, explicit period growth of ~8% and terminal growth of
5%.
Exhibit 2: One year forward P/BV
2.0
1.4
0.8
0.2
P/B (x)
Min (x)
Avg (x)
+1SD
Exhibit 3: One year forward P/E
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.5
Max (x)
-1SD
19.0
13.0
P/E (x)
Min (x)
Avg (x)
+1SD
17.4
12.3
8.5
4.6
3.0
Max (x)
-1SD
0.6
7.0
1.0
11.8
0.3
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
4 November 2017
4

Union Bank of India
Exhibit 4: DuPont Analysis: Elevated stress addition to keep pressure on return ratios in the near term
Y/E MARCH (%)
Net Interest Income
Fee income
Fee to core Income
Core Operating Income
Operating Expenses
Cost/core Income ratio
Employees
Emp/Total Exp Ratio
Others
Core Operating Profits
Trading and others
Operating Profits
Provisions
NPA
Others
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate
RoA
Leverage (x)
RoE
FY2012
2.73
0.47
14.6
3.19
1.60
50.1
1.00
62.2
0.61
1.59
0.52
2.11
1.02
0.61
0.41
1.09
0.37
34.1
0.72
20.7
14.9
FY2013
2.63
0.42
13.7
3.04
1.57
51.7
0.96
61.1
0.61
1.47
0.47
1.94
0.88
0.54
0.34
1.07
0.32
29.6
0.75
20.0
13.6
FY2014
2.37
0.40
14.4
2.76
1.65
59.6
0.99
60.3
0.65
1.12
0.45
1.57
0.95
0.63
0.31
0.62
0.11
17.9
0.51
20.5
10.4
FY2015
2.30
0.42
15.3
2.71
1.67
61.6
1.03
61.6
0.64
1.04
0.54
1.58
0.83
0.69
0.14
0.76
0.27
36.0
0.48
20.9
10.1
FY2016
2.11
0.40
15.7
2.51
1.60
63.9
0.94
58.7
0.66
0.91
0.53
1.44
0.99
1.18
-0.20
0.45
0.11
23.4
0.34
20.4
7.0
FY2017
2.08
0.41
16.5
2.49
1.50
60.4
0.80
53.3
0.70
0.98
0.75
1.73
1.65
1.41
0.25
0.08
-0.05
-62.1
0.13
20.6
2.7
FY2018E
2.01
0.43
17.6
2.44
1.54
63.0
0.81
52.5
0.73
0.90
0.64
1.55
1.69
1.69
0.00
-0.14
0.06
-43.5
-0.21
22.5
-4.7
FY2019E
1.98
0.45
18.5
2.43
1.57
64.7
0.81
51.6
0.76
0.86
0.63
1.49
1.37
1.36
0.01
0.13
0.04
34.0
0.08
25.1
2.1
FY2020E
2.04
0.47
18.7
2.50
1.57
62.6
0.78
50.0
0.78
0.94
0.61
1.55
1.18
1.16
0.02
0.37
0.13
34.0
0.24
27.0
6.6
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 5: DuPont Analysis: ROA still weak led by weak margins and higher credit costs
Y/E MARCH
Net Interest Income
Fee income
Fee to core income
Core Income
Operating Expenses
Cost to Core Income
Employee cost
Others
Core operating Profits
Non Interest income
Trading and others
Operating Profits
Provisions
NPAs
Others
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate
RoA
Leverage (x)
RoE
2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16
2.33
2.32
2.25
2.21
2.15
2.04
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.44
0.48
0.45
17.7
17.7
22.9
16.5
18.3
18.0
2.83
2.81
2.92
2.65
2.63
2.48
1.74
1.67
1.71
1.48
1.69
1.59
61.7
59.5
58.6
55.8
64.2
63.9
1.05
1.06
1.02
0.88
1.03
0.92
0.69
0.62
0.70
0.59
0.66
0.66
1.08
1.14
1.21
1.17
0.94
0.90
0.91
0.96
1.21
0.81
0.98
0.91
0.41
0.46
0.54
0.37
0.50
0.46
1.49
1.60
1.75
1.54
1.44
1.36
0.88
0.93
1.07
0.67
0.44
1.26
0.67
0.74
0.88
0.50
0.94
1.27
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.17
-0.50
-0.01
0.61
0.67
0.68
0.88
1.00
0.10
0.20
0.34
0.21
0.34
0.33
0.02
32.3
50.7
30.9
38.7
32.7
18.6
0.41
0.33
0.47
0.54
0.67
0.08
20.1
20.1
20.5
20.9
20.2
19.4
8.34
6.64
9.67
11.25 13.55
1.56
4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18
2.10
2.08
2.18
1.93
2.11
1.99
2.01
0.55
0.45
0.48
0.43
0.57
0.54
0.52
20.9
17.9
18.0
18.1
21.2
21.3
20.7
2.65
2.53
2.66
2.36
2.68
2.53
2.53
1.68
1.50
1.53
1.47
1.50
1.42
1.38
63.4
59.3
57.5
62.3
56.1
56.2
54.6
0.94
0.85
0.84
0.78
0.74
0.73
0.70
0.74
0.65
0.69
0.69
0.76
0.69
0.69
0.97
1.03
1.13
0.89
1.17
1.11
1.15
1.00
1.03
1.09
1.21
1.28
1.26
1.05
0.45
0.58
0.61
0.78
0.71
0.72
0.53
1.42
1.61
1.74
1.67
1.89
1.83
1.68
1.57
1.34
1.55
1.51
2.16
1.51
3.07
2.02
1.33
1.53
1.43
1.33
1.67
2.99
-0.45
0.01
0.02
0.08
0.83
-0.15
0.08
-0.16
0.27
0.19
0.16
-0.27
0.31
-1.40
-0.25
0.10
0.02
0.07
-0.37
0.21
-0.07
162.0
38.9
11.4
42.6
134.9
67.0
5.3
0.10
0.16
0.17
0.09
0.10
0.10
-1.32
19.7
19.7
20.1
21.1
21.2
20.9
22.2
1.90
3.25
3.40
1.98
2.03
2.16 -29.31
Source: MOSL, Company
4 November 2017
5

Union Bank of India
Story in Charts
Exhibit 6: Credit costs soared to 4.9% (highest in 10 qtrs)
Net Slippage Ratio (%)
3.1
1.5
1.3
0.9 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.1
0.8
2.0
Credit Cost (%)
4.9
2.4 2.4 2.2 2.7
2.1
42 42 44 44 44 43
47 46 46
44 44 44 44
44 42 42 43
Exhibit 7: GNPA % decreased 28bp QoQ to 12.4%
Gross NPA (%)
Net NPA (%)
PCR (%)
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 8: Corporate slippages moderated this quarter
Corporate Slippage (INR b)
5
6
4
SME Slippage (INR b)
Exhibit 9: Slippage from RL forms 9% of total slippages (%)
Share of NPA in RL (%)
41
51
38
33
16
Slippages from RL (%)
35
9
7
13
9
5 52
2
8
2
8
4 5
3 23
6 2
2
13 10
9
7 10 12
4
5
2
10
23
7
30
29 25 30
20
15
26
25
26
29
35
51
57
65
65
65
71
70
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 10: Global margins was flat (+2bp) QoQ (%)
Exhibit 11: Fee income growth stayed strong
Fee Inc. (INR b)
YoY Gr. (%)
6
8 16
33 22
21 16 21 25
20
8
6 14
5 -4
-4
-13
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
4 November 2017
6

Union Bank of India
Exhibit 12: Quarterly Snapshot
FY16
INR m
Profit and Loss
Interest Income
Loans
Investment
Others
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
Other Income
Trading profits
Forex Income
Recoveries
Core Fees
Total Income
Operating Expenses
Employee
Others
Operating Profits
Provisions
NPA provisions
Provisions on Invst.
Others
PBT
Taxes
PAT
Ratios (%)
Fees of Total Income
Cost to Core Income
Tax Rate
CASA (Cal)
Loan/Deposit
Reported
Yield on Funds
Cost of Funds
Spreads
Margins
Margins - Cumulative (%)
Yield on Funds
Cost of Funds
Spreads
Margins - Cumulative
Franchise
Branches
ATM
1Q
82,599
61,811
18,370
2,419
61,298
21,302
7,832
1,950
1,260
400
4,222
29,134
14,252
8,533
5,719
14,882
6,424
4,800
2,050
-426
8,458
3,270
5,188
14.5
55.8
38.7
28.3
75.8
8.7
6.5
2.2
2.4
8.7
6.5
2.2
2.4
4,082
6,877
2Q
81,415
58,979
19,731
2,705
60,398
21,017
9,595
2,590
1,760
550
4,695
30,612
16,505
10,055
6,450
14,107
4,325
9,240
-1,130
-3,785
9,782
3,200
6,582
15.3
64.2
32.7
28.6
74.5
8.4
6.3
2.2
2.3
8.6
6.4
2.2
2.4
4,095
6,909
3Q
79,094
57,719
18,917
2,458
59,129
19,965
8,927
2,570
1,640
340
4,377
28,892
15,551
9,042
6,509
13,342
12,377
12,430
210
-264
965
180
785
15.1
63.9
18.6
30.6
77.5
8.2
6.1
2.1
2.2
8.5
6.3
2.2
2.3
4,131
6,960
4Q
78,880
58,072
18,334
2,474
58,033
20,847
9,964
2,060
1,840
560
5,504
30,811
16,715
9,363
7,352
14,096
15,647
20,080
420
-4,853
-1,551
-2,512
961
17.9
63.4
162.0
32.4
78.0
8.1
6.0
2.2
2.3
8.4
6.2
2.2
2.3
4,196
6,883
1Q
78,766
57,635
18,765
2,366
57,744
21,023
10,399
3,160
2,310
360
4,569
31,421
15,171
8,590
6,581
16,251
13,530
13,470
-420
480
2,721
1,058
1,663
14.5
59.3
38.9
31.5
75.8
7.9
5.8
2.1
2.3
7.9
5.8
2.1
2.3
4,199
6,893
2Q
82,081
58,171
21,043
2,868
59,307
22,774
11,394
4,660
1,320
430
4,984
34,169
15,972
8,736
7,236
18,197
16,203
15,980
-120
343
1,994
227
1,767
14.6
57.5
11.4
31.5
73.4
7.7
5.6
2.1
2.3
7.8
5.7
2.1
2.3
4,210
7,151
FY17
3Q
82,498
56,939
23,084
2,475
61,132
21,366
13,397
6,940
1,280
450
4,727
34,763
16,250
8,654
7,597
18,513
16,701
15,820
810
71
1,811
771
1,040
13.6
62.3
42.6
36.8
69.2
7.2
5.3
1.9
2.0
7.6
5.6
2.0
2.2
4,233
7,496
4Q
83,255
56,687
24,059
2,509
59,384
23,870
14,456
5,820
1,460
770
6,406
38,326
16,986
8,362
8,623
21,341
24,441
15,050
6,040
3,351
-3,101
-4,183
1,082
16.7
56.1
134.9
34.4
75.7
7.4
5.2
2.1
2.3
7.6
5.5
2.1
2.2
4,278
7,518
1Q
FY18
2Q
Variation (%)
QoQ
YoY
1
0
2
2
0
3
-14
-27
-1
175
-9
-3
0
-2
2
-6
109
85
-139
-130
-558
-136
-1,413
-103
-48
-6,170
-190
127
-13
-14
1
2
-6
-7
1
2
0
1
0
-1
4
-5
0
2
7
2
3
28
10
4
0
-8
10
7
119
117
-1,483
-323
-910
-474
-966
94
-182
-614
210
197
-91
-69
-22
-22
-94
-73
-21
-21
2
7
81,530 82,224
57,377 57,543
21,477 21,949
2,677
2,733
59,104 59,017
22,426 23,207
14,147 12,173
6,520
4,770
1,370
1,360
200
550
6,057
5,493
36,573 35,381
16,007 15,991
8,213
8,058
7,794
7,933
20,566 19,390
17,037 35,547
18,760 34,650
-4,260 1,660
2,537
-763
3,529 -16,157
2,363
-850
1,166 -15,307
16.6
56.2
67.0
35.5
74.1
6.9
5.0
1.9
2.1
6.9
5.0
1.9
2.1
4,282
7,574
15.5
55.7
5.3
33.6
75.3
6.8
4.9
1.9
2.1
6.9
5.0
1.9
2.1
4,295
7,674
Source: MOSL, Company
4 November 2017
7

Union Bank of India
Exhibit 13: Quarterly Snapshot continued
INR b
Balance Sheet
Loans
Deposits
Investments
HTM
AFS
Deposits Break Up
CASA Deposits
% of total Deposits
Savings
% of total Deposits
Current
% of total Deposits
Term Deposits
% of total Deposits
Loan Break Up
Agriculture
SME Loans
Retail Loans
Other loans
Asset Quality
Opening
Additions
Deductions
Upgradation and recovery
Write offs
Closing
Annualized Slippage Ratio (%)
Credit cost (%)
GNPA (%)
NNPA (%)
Outstanding Standard Restructured loans
% of the loan book
Of which NPA
% of restructured loans
O/S standard Restructured loans
% of the loan book
1Q
FY16
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY18
1Q
2Q
Variation (%)
QoQ
YoY
4
3
6
0
17
-3
3
-23
6
11
7
8
-1
23
14
19
-6
4
2,556 2,540 2,619 2,775 2,683 2,781 2,768 3,013 2,949 3,078
3,273 3,307 3,274 3,427 3,387 3,615 3,798 3,784 3,758 3,860
1,012 1,045 923 892 1,021 1,190 1,352 1,121 1,215 1,284
736 688 701 708 736 788 796 670 783 784
282 361 285 310 291 407 562 463 427 499
926
28.3
713
21.8
214
6.5
2,347
71.7
944
28.6
734
22.2
210
6.4
2,363
71.4
1,002
30.6
750
22.9
251
7.7
2,272
69.4
1,109
32.4
811
23.7
297
8.7
2,318
67.6
1,066
31.5
821
24.2
245
7.2
2,321
68.5
1,140
31.5
906
25.1
235
6.5
2,474
68.5
1,397
36.8
1,101
29.0
296
7.8
2,401
63.2
1,303
34.4
1,041
27.5
262
6.9
2,481
65.6
1,334
35.5
1,048
27.9
287
7.6
2,424
64.5
1,296
33.6
1,075
27.9
221
5.7
2,564
66.4
362 362 369 388 392 412 407
464 476 489 555 553 583 571
327 336 348 328 355 375 376
1,403 1,367 1,413 1,504 1,383 1,412 1,414
130.3
15.1
4.0
2.4
1.6
141.4
2.6
0.8
5.5
3.1
141.3
5.5
50.0
26.2
141.3
5.5
141.4
19.3
5.3
2.6
2.7
155.4
3.2
1.5
6.1
3.4
139.1
5.5
56.0
28.7
139.1
5.5
155.4
34.1
4.6
2.0
2.6
185.0
5.6
2.0
7.1
4.1
136.2
5.2
73.0
34.9
136.2
5.2
185.0
61.7
4.9
4.0
1.0
241.7
9.7
3.1
8.7
5.3
85.7
3.1
90.6
51.4
85.7
3.1
241.7
36.0
4.9
4.9
0.0
272.8
5.8
2.1
10.2
6.2
72.5
2.7
95.3
56.8
72.5
2.7
272.8
34.0
8.2
6.7
1.5
298.6
5.5
2.4
10.7
6.4
56.4
2.0
105.8
65.2
56.4
2.0
298.6
32.9
7.5
3.6
4.0
324.0
5.2
2.4
11.7
7.0
55.2
2.0
105.8
65.2
55.2
2.0
441 441 429
619 607 623
404 424 447
1,549 1,478 1,579
324.0
29.5
16.4
9.3
7.2
337.1
4.4
2.2
11.2
6.6
56.9
1.9
105.1
64.9
56.9
1.9
337.1
44.5
8.8
5.4
3.4
372.9
6.9
2.7
12.6
7.5
38.6
1.3
105.1
71.3
38.6
1.3
372.9
26.9
16.9
5.8
11.1
382.9
4.1
4.9
12.4
6.7
52.7
1.7
108.8
70.1
52.7
1.7
-3
3
6
7
11
-40
92
7
226
3
-288
221
-28
-77
37
40
4
7
19
12
37
-21
107
-14
650
28
-147
242
162
31
-6
-31
37
40
-6
-31
Source: MOSL, Company
4 November 2017
8

Union Bank of India
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
2012
Interest Income
2,10,285
Interest Expense
1,42,354
Net Interest Income
67,931
Change (%)
9.3
Non Interest Income
24,482
Net Income
92,413
Change (%)
11.9
Operating Expenses
39,875
Pre Provision Profits
52,538
Change (%)
22.0
Provisions (excl tax)
25,410
PBT
27,128
Tax
9,256
Tax Rate (%)
34.1
PAT
17,871
Change (%)
-14.2
Profits for Equity SH
17,766
Change (%)
-14.5
Equity Dividend (Incl tax)
5,128
Core PPP*
39,702
Change (%)
24.1
*Core PPP is (NII+Fee income-Opex)
2013
2,51,247
1,75,819
75,428
11.0
25,520
1,00,949
9.2
45,122
55,827
6.3
25,185
30,642
9,063
29.6
21,579
20.7
21,485
20.9
5,602
42,216
6.3
2014
2,93,494
2,14,701
78,793
4.5
28,215
1,07,009
6.0
54,828
52,181
-6.5
31,511
20,670
3,708
17.9
16,962
-21.4
16,862
-21.5
2,967
37,238
-11.8
2015
3,20,840
2,36,401
84,439
7.2
35,230
1,19,669
11.8
61,434
58,235
11.6
30,401
27,834
10,017
36.0
17,816
5.0
17,764
5.3
4,589
38,264
2.8
2016
3,21,988
2,38,857
83,131
-1.5
36,317
1,19,448
-0.2
63,022
56,426
-3.1
38,772
17,654
4,138
23.4
13,516
-24.1
13,516
-23.9
1,615
35,626
-6.9
2017
3,26,600
2,37,566
89,033
7.1
49,646
1,38,679
16.1
64,378
74,301
31.7
70,875
3,426
-2,126
-62.1
5,552
-58.9
5,552
-58.9
0
42,181
18.4
2018E
3,37,684
2,42,585
95,099
6.8
50,785
1,45,884
5.2
72,665
73,219
-1.5
80,056
-6,837
2,977
-43.5
-9,814
-276.8
-9,814
-276.8
-1,143
42,750
1.3
(INR Million)
2019E
3,61,184
2,57,806
1,03,378
8.7
56,590
1,59,968
9.7
82,072
77,896
6.4
71,339
6,557
2,229
34.0
4,328
-144.1
4,328
-144.1
504
44,835
4.9
2020E
3,96,119
2,77,321
1,18,798
14.9
62,962
1,81,760
13.6
91,369
90,391
16.0
68,929
21,461
7,297
34.0
14,165
227.3
14,165
227.3
1,650
54,683
22.0
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Equity Share Capital
Preference Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Of which Equity Networth
Deposits
Change (%)
of which CASA Dep
Change (%)
Borrowings
Other Liabilities & Prov.
Total Liabilities
Current Assets
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
Asset Quality
GNPA (INR m)
NNPA (INR m)
GNPA Ratio
NNPA Ratio
PCR (Incl Tech. Write off)
E: MOSL Estimates
2012
6,615
5,505
1,110
1,39,715
1,46,331
1,45,221
22,28,689
10.1
6,97,051
8.4
1,79,095
67,999
26,22,114
1,56,751
6,23,636
6.8
17,78,821
17.8
23,358
39,549
26,22,114
54,499
30,250
3.02
1.70
62.2
2013
7,078
5,968
1,110
1,65,884
1,72,962
1,71,852
26,37,616
18.3
8,16,349
17.1
2,37,973
72,787
31,21,338
1,62,104
8,08,304
29.6
20,81,022
17.0
24,790
45,117
31,21,338
63,138
33,534
2.99
1.61
65.2
2014
7,413
6,303
1,110
1,77,341
1,84,754
1,83,644
29,76,756
12.9
8,78,005
7.6
2,93,166
83,133
35,37,809
2,30,729
9,37,232
16.0
22,91,044
10.1
26,085
52,720
35,37,809
95,638
53,403
4.10
2.33
60.0
2015
6,358
6,358
0
1,91,251
1,97,609
1,97,609
31,68,699
6.4
9,26,505
5.5
3,53,600
96,252
38,16,159
2,23,780
8,44,617
-9.9
25,56,546
11.6
26,820
1,64,397
38,16,159
1,30,308
69,190
4.98
2.71
59.2
2016
6,874
6,874
0
2,22,038
2,28,912
2,28,912
34,27,200
8.2
11,08,758
19.7
3,09,574
81,273
40,46,959
2,92,762
8,92,084
5.6
26,73,540
4.6
39,399
1,49,175
40,46,959
2,41,698
1,40,259
8.71
5.25
51.0
2017
6,874
6,874
0
2,32,888
2,39,762
2,39,762
37,83,916
10.4
13,03,087
17.5
4,12,259
91,108
45,27,044
3,28,225
11,21,490
25.7
28,64,666
7.1
38,944
1,73,720
45,27,044
3,37,108
1,88,321
11.19
6.57
51.4
2018E
7,264
7,264
0
2,22,972
2,30,237
2,30,237
41,62,307
10.0
14,80,185
13.6
4,36,222
1,02,734
49,31,501
3,38,082
12,89,713
15.0
30,65,192
7.0
38,736
1,99,778
49,31,501
4,15,469
2,10,629
12.71
6.87
56.1
(INR Million)
2019E
7,264
7,264
0
2,25,552
2,32,816
2,32,816
46,82,596
12.5
17,47,887
18.1
4,61,144
1,16,484
54,93,040
3,69,886
14,83,170
15.0
33,71,712
10.0
38,528
2,29,745
54,93,040
4,17,414
1,77,768
11.56
5.27
64.7
2020E
7,264
7,264
0
2,36,821
2,44,086
2,44,086
53,14,746
13.5
20,66,295
18.2
4,87,087
1,32,557
61,78,476
3,93,987
17,05,645
15.0
37,76,317
12.0
38,320
2,64,206
61,78,476
(%)
3,95,269
1,35,716
9.79
3.59
73.4
4 November 2017
9

Union Bank of India
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Spreads Analysis (%)
Avg. Yield-Earning Assets
Avg. Yield on loans
Avg. Yield on Investments
Avg. Cost-Int. Bear. Liab.
Avg. Cost of Deposits
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoA
Int. Expense/Int.Income
Fee Income/Net Income
Non Int. Inc./Net Income
Efficiency Ratios (%)
Cost/Income*
Empl. Cost/Op. Exps.
Busi. per Empl. (INR m)
NP per Empl. (INR lac)
* ex treasury
Asset-Liability Profile (%)
Loans/Deposit Ratio
CASA Ratio
Investment/Deposit Ratio
G-Sec/Investment Ratio
CAR
Tier 1
2012
9.2
9.7
7.6
6.2
6.3
3.0
3.0
2013
9.3
9.9
7.9
6.7
6.8
2.7
2.8
2014
9.4
9.9
8.3
7.0
7.1
2.5
2.5
2015
9.5
9.9
8.1
7.0
7.0
2.5
2.5
2016
9.0
9.0
8.7
6.6
6.7
2.4
2.3
2017
8.3
8.3
8.6
6.0
6.1
2.3
2.3
2018E
7.8
8.0
7.3
5.5
5.6
2.3
2.2
2019E
7.6
7.7
7.3
5.3
5.4
2.3
2.2
2020E
7.4
7.4
7.3
5.1
5.1
2.3
2.2
14.8
0.7
67.7
17.9
26.5
15.0
0.7
70.0
17.4
25.3
10.4
0.5
73.2
19.3
26.4
10.1
0.5
73.7
20.9
29.4
7.0
0.3
74.2
21.2
30.4
2.7
0.1
72.7
19.5
35.8
-4.7
-0.2
71.8
20.6
34.8
2.1
0.1
71.4
21.5
35.4
6.6
0.2
70.0
21.6
34.6
45.3
62.2
122.3
5.8
46.9
61.1
137.2
6.8
53.7
60.3
147.7
5.0
54.6
61.6
154.8
5.0
57.1
58.7
166.7
3.8
54.5
53.3
172.4
1.5
57.1
52.5
180.3
-2.6
58.4
51.6
191.2
1.1
56.6
50.0
206.7
3.4
79.8
31.3
28.0
80.9
11.9
8.4
78.9
31.0
30.6
76.4
11.5
8.2
77.0
29.5
31.5
74.4
10.8
7.5
80.7
29.2
26.7
86.1
10.2
7.5
78.0
32.4
26.0
80.1
10.6
8.1
75.7
34.4
29.6
78.1
11.8
9.0
73.6
35.6
31.0
77.5
10.5
7.9
72.0
37.3
31.7
75.8
9.7
7.2
71.1
38.9
32.1
74.8
9.1
6.8
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
Change (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
Change (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend Per Share (INR)
Dividend Yield (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
236
11.7
197
32.3
-18.5
8.0
263
11.4
0.7
224
0.8
36.0
11.6
4.8
8.0
4.6
267
1.7
0.6
208
0.8
26.8
-25.7
6.5
4.0
2.3
288
7.5
0.6
211
0.8
27.9
4.4
6.2
6.0
3.5
294
2.2
0.6
151
1.1
19.7
-29.6
8.8
2.0
1.1
311
6.0
0.6
120
1.4
8.1
-58.9
21.5
0.0
0.0
283
-9.0
0.6
80
2.2
-13.5
-267.3
-12.8
-1.4
-0.8
289
1.9
0.6
117
1.5
6.0
-144.1
29.1
0.6
0.3
306
6.0
0.6
175
1.0
19.5
227.3
8.9
1.9
1.1
4 November 2017
10

Union Bank of India
NOTES
4 November 2017
11

Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock
broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed
public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock
Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange Of India Ltd. (MSE) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited
(CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are
available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf
Pending Regulatory Enquiries against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited by SEBI:
SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold
inquiry and adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL requested SEBI to provide all documents, records, investigation report relied upon by SEBI which were referred in Show Cause Notice and also sought personal
hearing. The matter is currently pending.
MOSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in
the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a)
from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and
earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other
potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s),
as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the
research report.
Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12 month period. MOSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject company in
the past 12 months.
In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, MOSL or any of its associates may have:
a)
managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
b)
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
c)
received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
d)
Subject Company may have been a client of MOSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
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The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or
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Union Bank of India
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Union Bank of India
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary
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products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research
Analysis in Hong Kong.
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and
therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
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the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following
representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person
or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of
offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or
appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations
as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to
determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative
products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of
the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the
views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time
without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities
mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities
functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is
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information due to any errors and delays.
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Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE(F&O): INF011041257; BSE(CD); MSE(Cash): INB261041231;
MSE(F&O): INF261041231; MSE(CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset
Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth
management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities
Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
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