6 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
Gujarat Gas
Sell
BSE SENSEX
33,731
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,452
GUJGA IN
Roller coaster continues; both volume and EBITDA/scm poor
137.7
GUJGA reported EBITDA of INR2.0b (-3% YoY, -25% QoQ), below our
131.6 / 2.0
estimate of INR2.3b, led by a lower-than-expected margin. PAT came in at
945 / 487
INR611m (-12% YoY, -41% QoQ), significantly below our estimate, led by
-1/9/51
higher-than-expected interest cost and lower-than-expected other income.
66
39.1
PNG volumes strong:
PNG industrial/commercial volumes stood at
CMP: INR956
TP: INR721 (-25%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E
Net Sales
50.9
62.5
EBITDA
7.4
10.1
PAT
2.2
4.1
EPS (INR)
16.1
29.7
EPS Gr. (%)
7.0
85.1
BV/Sh (INR)
119.5
143.6
RoE (%)
14.0
22.6
RoCE (%)
14.4
19.4
P/E (x)
59.5
32.2
P/BV (x)
8.0
6.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
20.7
15.2
2019E
76.4
12.7
6.1
44.1
48.4
179.5
27.3
25.4
21.7
5.3
11.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
4.0mmscmd (+13% YoY, -9% QoQ), and PNG household volumes at
0.5mmscmd (+5% YoY, +4% QoQ). Sequential decline in volumes was led by
non-inclusion of gas under GST, state bringing in a cut in VAT with a delay,
and flooding-related shutdowns by consumers. According to management,
the volumes lost have been made up for at the exit of the quarter.
CNG volumes up 7% YoY:
CNG volumes stood at 1.3mmscmd (+7% YoY, -1%
QoQ). Unless CNG volumes become a larger contributor, the company would
continue witnessing volatility in volumes and margins, in our view.
EBITDA/scm stood at INR3.8:
EBITDA/scm rose declined to INR3.8 (-13%
YoY, -21% QoQ), below our estimate of INR4.4, led by higher gas cost. We
have modeled EBITDA/scm at INR4.5/5.0 for FY18/19E.
Valuation and view
We expect volume growth to continue in FY18/19, primarily led by the PNG
industrial and commercial segment. For FY18/19E, we model volumes of
6.2/7.0mmscmd and EBITDA/scm of INR4.5/5.0.
We understand that with gas not being included under the GST, sales
volumes have been impacted adversely. However, the state government
decreased VAT, resulting in some restoration in volumes.
Propane and LPG are emerging as new and significant alternatives in areas
like Morbi.
We value the company at 15x (unchanged). At 15x average FY19-20E EPS of
INR48.1, we value GUJGA at INR721, implying a downside of 25%. Maintain
Sell.
FY17
FY18E
(INR Million)
FY18
2QE Var (%)
14,836
-6.2
19.9
12,555
-5.3
2,281
-11.2
15.4
725
-5.8
336
48.4
127
-30.1
1,347
-30.7
445
-27.4
33.0
903
-32.3
25.7
6.1
5.6
1.9
1.3
-1.1
3.9
2.7
0.4
3.9
4.4
-12.8
Standalone - Quarterly Earning Model
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
Total volume (mmscmd)
CNG
PNG- Indust./comm.
PNG - Households
EBITDA (INR/scm)
1Q
12,247
-26.7
10,073
2,173
17.7
632
534
62
1,070
321
30.0
748
27.7
6.1
5.1
1.1
3.5
0.4
4.7
FY17
FY18
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3QE
4QE
12,370 12,309 14,002 14,780 13,914 16,360 17,463
-21.3
-17.1
1.6
20.7
12.5
32.9
24.7
10,276 10,600 12,539 12,082 11,888 13,909 14,566
2,094 1,709 1,463 2,698 2,027 2,451 2,897
16.9
13.9
10.4
18.3
14.6
15.0
16.6
645
653
643
666
683
746
746
541
539
476
496
499
255
255
52
75
71
78
89
145
145
959
593
415 1,615
934 1,595 2,041
265
170
84
571
323
526
674
27.6
28.6
20.2
35.4
34.6
33.0
33.0
695
423
331 1,044
611 1,069 1,367
150.3
31.5
-63.9
39.4
-12.1 152.7 312.6
5.6
3.4
2.4
7.1
4.4
6.5
7.8
5.2
5.3
6.1
6.1
5.7
6.3
6.5
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
3.6
3.7
4.3
4.4
4.0
4.5
4.6
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
4.4
3.5
2.7
4.8
3.8
4.2
5.0
50,927 62,517
-16.6
22.8
43,488 52,444
7,440 10,072
14.6
16.1
2,672 2,840
2,090 1,504
371
456
3,050 6,184
839 2,094
27.5
33.9
2,210 4,090
7.0
85.1
4.3
6.5
5.4
6.2
1.2
1.3
3.8
4.4
0.5
0.5
3.8
4.5
Swarnendu Bhushan- Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale- Research Analyst
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.