8 November 2017
Q2FY18 Results Update | Sector: Textiles
Arvind
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
33,219
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,303
ARVND IN
Demerger of brands and retail business to create long-term
258.2
117.5 / 1.8
value
462 / 322
GST transition, coupled with high cotton prices, impacts margins:
ARVIND’s
3/-8/-18
revenue grew 12% YoY to INR26.3b (est. of INR26.1b) in 2QFY18. Brands and
645.7
Retail grew 34% YoY to INR10.3b, while Textiles grew 1% YoY to INR14.4b.
57.1
CMP: INR414
TP: INR425(+3%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
92.4
105.2
EBITDA
9.4
9.1
PAT
3.2
2.7
EPS (INR)
12.4
10.5
Gr. (%)
1.2
-15.0
BV/Sh (INR)
138.1
145.0
RoE (%)
10.3
7.4
RoCE (%)
8.8
6.8
P/E (x)
30.9
36.3
P/BV (x)
2.8
2.6
2019E
121.2
11.5
4.3
16.5
56.5
156.7
10.9
8.8
23.2
2.4
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
EBITDA declined 9% YoY to INR2,123m (est. of INR2,506m), with the margin
contracting 190bp to 8.1% (est. of 9.6%) on account of higher raw material
costs (+300bp to 48.7% of net sales). Adjusted PAT stood at INR632m (est. of
INR835m) v/s INR813m in 2QFY17.
Branded Apparel and Engineering businesses to demerge:
The board has
approved the demerger of (i) Branded Apparel from the parent company to
Arvind Fashions and (ii) Engineering undertaking to Anup Engineering.
Shareholders will be entitled for one equity share of Arvind Fashions for
every five shares of ARVIND, and for one equity share of Anup Engineering
for 27 shares of ARVIND. It is important to note that this is a mirror image
being created, as the number of shares for Arvind Fashions stands at 52m
v/s listed ARVIND at 258.4m shares. Hence, the ratio stands at one new
share of Arvind Fashion for five shares of ARVIND. We believe the demerger
is positive for minority shareholders over the medium-to-long term.
Valuation and view:
We cut FY18/FY19E EBITDA by 10%/8% and
consequently FY18E/FY19E PAT by 18%/12% to factor in lower margins in
Textiles and higher growth in Brands and Retail, which is a lower-margin
business compared to Textiles. While we have cut our margin estimate for
Textiles and value it at 6x FY19E EV/EBITDA, we have increased our multiple
on Brands and Retail to 24x FY19 EV/EBITDA, which we believe is where
Arvind Fashions would trade post its listing, given its strong unique
positioning, future ready portfolio and increasing size of scale. Maintain
Neutral
with a TP of INR425.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Niket Shah – Research analyst
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1535
Aksh Vashishth – Research analyst
(Aksh.Vashishth@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1553