8 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Metals
Rain Industries
BSE SENSEX
33,219
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,303
RINDL IN
336
114.3 / 1.8
352 / 41
83/211/561
286
58.9
CMP: INR340 TP: INR492 (+45%)
Buy
CPC market tailwinds driving strong earnings growth
Raising earnings and target price; Maintaining Buy
Rain Industries (RAIN) reported very strong earnings growth, driven by structural
changes in market dynamics for its carbon business. Consolidated EBITDA increased
49% YoY to INR6.7b, beating our estimate of INR5b by a wide margin, due to both
stronger margins (USD118/t v/s est. of USD85) and volumes (475kt v/s est. of 425kt
CPC volumes) in the carbon business. Chemical division was affected by fire at one
of its plant in Europe, seasonally low demand and higher input prices. Despite
lower prices, margins in the cement business improved due to the benefit of waste
heat recovery and operational improvements. Adj. PAT rose 29% YoY to INR2.5b.
We believe earnings momentum will continue because:
Average realized price of CPC at USD337/t is still significantly lower than
USD500-600/t seen during 2010-11. At that time, the key driver of prices was
shortage of key input (GPC). On the other hand, the market is now facing
shortage of CPC, while the GPC market is not as tight. Further, RAIN has
invested in desulfurization plants and mixers, which allow it to use higher sulfur
GPC relative to competitors. Therefore, we believe CPC margins for RAIN will
settle at a higher level than the USD120/t achieved in 2011. We are raising
estimates for CPC volumes by 3%/8%/2% for CY17E/CY18E/CY19E.
Similarly, we expect CT Pitch margins to benefit from supply-side correction in
its key market and additional demand from aluminum production ramp-up in
North America and graphite industry. As the 200kt pet tar distillation expansion
project in Europe is on track, we are raising volumes by 9% to 700kt for CY19E.
We are also raising the estimates for carbon margins from USD100/t to
USD120/t. As a result, consolidated EBITDA has increased by 17/22/21% for
CY17E/CY18E/CY19E and target price to INR492/sh. (earlier INR362), based on
SOTP. Maintain
Buy.
INR million
CY16
2Q
3Q
4Q
25,315 22,400 23,831
-4
-17
1
4,441 4,536
4,082
17.5
20.2
17.1
1,513 1,430
1,440
862
855
927
322
159
53
2,388 2,410
1,767
162
-224
-933
2,550 2,185
834
987
466
626
38.7
21.3
75.1
1,563 1,719
208
-2
42
64
1,403 1,901
1,077
-12.3
45.7 -1,505.7
1Q
24,680
14
4,414
17.9
1,536
1,366
206
1,718
-670
1,048
400
38.2
647
55
1,263
331.5
CY17
CY16 CY17E
2Q
3Q
4QE
26,371 30,508 32,300 93,164 113,860
4
36
36
-9
22
4,678 6,738 7,302 15,056 23,132
17.7
22.1
22.6
16.2
20.3
1,483 1,463 1,483 5,867 5,964
1,295 1,335 1,175 3,461 5,171
475
256
242
704 1,179
2,375 4,195 4,887 6,432 13,175
0
0
0
-996
-670
2,375 4,195 4,887 5,436 12,505
819 1,662 1,496 1,648 4,377
34.5
39.6
30.6
30.3
35.0
1,556 2,534 3,390 3,788 8,128
41
78
40
69
213
1,515 2,456 3,351 4,715 8,585
8.0
29.2 211.1
46.8
82.1
v/s Est.
3QE
%
28,680
6
28
4,961
36
17.3
1,472
-1
1,111
20
225
13
2,603
61
0
2,603
61
762
118
29.3
1,841
38
40
93
1,801
36
3.3
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Dec
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
113.9 133.9 146.1
EBITDA
23.1
28.6
30.8
NP
8.6
13.1
14.5
Adj. EPS (INR)
25.5
38.9
43.0
EPS Gr(%)
165.2
52.3
10.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
112.7 149.2 189.9
RoE (%)
25.2
29.7
25.4
RoCE (%)
21.3
26.2
26.4
P/E (x)
13.3
8.7
7.9
P/BV
3.0
2.3
1.8
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E December
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
As % of Net Sales
Interest
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT (before EO Inc.)
EO Income(exp)
PBT (after EO Inc.)
Total Tax
% Tax
Reported PAT
Min. Int. & assc.
Adjusted PAT
Change (YoY %)
1Q
21,617
-15
1,997
9.2
1,484
817
171
-133
0
-133
-432
324.5
299
6
293
-23.9
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sanjay Jain – Research Analyst
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal – Research Analyst
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549