8 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
GSK Consumer
Upgrade to Neutral
BSE SENSEX
33,219
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,303
SKB IN
42.1
237.5 / 3.7
5800 / 4650
8/-2/-22
112
27.5
CMP: INR5,467 TP: INR5,400 (-1%)
Market share continues to decline, schemes impact gross margins
GSK Consumer (SKB) posted 3.2% YoY sales growth
(including operating
income) to INR11.2b. EBITDA grew 6.6% YoY to INR2.6b (our estimate:
INR2.3b), while adjusted PAT grew 4.7% YoY to INR1.9b (our estimate:
INR1.75b). Like-to-like GST-adjusted sales grew 4.8% YoY. Like-to-like domestic
sales grew 6% YoY while exports declined 26% YoY. Domestic volumes grew
2.5% YoY (on base of 3% decline in 2QFY17) and price increase was around 4%
(taken in 1QFY18; SKB has not taken price increase since then).
Gross margin shrank 130bp YoY to 64.7%
.
High raw material costs along with
higher ad spend (up 50bp YoY to 12.3%) were set off by decrease in other
expenditure (down 210bp YoY to 17.3%) and lower staff costs (down 50bp YoY
to 13.6%). EBITDA margin expanded 70bp YoY to 23.4% in 2QFY18.
Concall highlights:
(1)
Management is working towards attaining double-digit
revenue growth.
(2)
Market share decline has been arrested sequentially, but
YoY as well as over March 2017, share decline continues.
Valuation and view:
SKB remains an inferior business relative to peers, with
category growth showing no signs of recovery to earlier levels. There are also
no indications of market share recovery. Volume growth remains moribund,
despite a weak base quarter after quarter for three years now. With a lower
proportion of rural sales compared to peers, the company does not have any
major tailwind going forward on volumes and earnings. EBITDA and PAT CAGR
of 13-14% over FY18-20E will be significantly inferior to peers and so will RoE of
~22%. We continue to value the core business at ~25% discount to the non-
alcoholic consumer peer valuations of 39.2x (which amounts to 30x) and add
cash per share, as cash earnings to PBT is over 20%. The stock has been a
significant underperformer, with flattish return over the past three years.
However, with the sector re-rating, of late, average consumer peer valuations
have gone up in the last few months, limiting downside. We therefore upgrade
from Sell to Neutral with a target price of INR5,400 (on September 2019E EPS).
(INR Million)
FY17
FY18
3Q
-17.0
8,604
-11.5
6,927
1,677
19.5
-9.5
171
6
559
2,059
695
33.8
1,364
-8.3
4Q
-1.0
11,019
2.3
8,848
2,171
19.7
1.5
177
9
710
2,695
936
34.7
1,759
8.4
1Q
0.0
9,853
4.4
8,190
1,664
16.9
-18.3
170
5
557
2,045
723
35.3
1,322
-17.7
2Q
2.5
11,153
3.2
8,540
2,614
23.4
6.6
177
6
550
2,981
1,057
35.5
1,924
4.7
3QE
12.0
9,894
15.0
7,867
2,027
20.5
20.9
172
7
531
2,379
833
35.0
1,547
13.4
FY17
FY18E
FY18
2QE
6.0
10,965
1.5
8,641
2,324
21.2
-5.2
170
7
549
2,697
944
35.0
1,753
-4.6
Var.
(%)
1.7%
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Dec
2017 2018E 2019E
39.9
42.8
48.1
Net Sales
8.3
8.8
10.1
EBITDA
6.6
6.8
7.7
PAT
156.1 160.8 182.3
EPS (INR)
0.9
3.0
13.4
Gr. (%)
742.4 759.2 856.2
BV/Sh (INR)
22.2
21.4
22.6
RoE (%)
22.2
21.5
22.6
RoCE (%)
35.0
34.0
30.0
P/E (x)
7.4
7.2
6.4
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E Mar
HFD Volume Growth (%)
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
Tota l Exp
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
YoY Cha nge (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
Adj PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
-6.0
9,439
-5.2
7,404
2,035
21.6
-0.6
147
6
592
2,474
868
35.1
1,606
2.9
2Q
-3.0
10,803
-1.1
8,351
2,452
22.7
3.0
148
6
578
2,876
1,039
36.1
1,837
-0.1
4QE
5.0
-6.8
4.5
11,900 39,864 42,801
8.0
-3.6
7.4
9,431 31,530 34,028
2,468 8,335 8,773
20.7
20.9
20.5
13.7
-1.0
5.3
167
642
686
10
28
28
702 2,439 2,340
2,994 10,104 10,399
1,024 3,537 3,636
34.2
35.0
35.0
1,970 6,566 6,763
12.0
-4.5
3.0
12.5%
10.5%
9.8%
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
– Research Analyst
(Krishnan.sambamoorthy@motilaloswal.com ); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
– Research Analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.