Alkem Laboratories
BSE SENSEX
33,315
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,322
ALKEM IN
Strong numbers; operating leverage impact visible
120
Revenue increased ~14% YoY to INR18.6b (8% beat; adjusted for GST,
231.5 / 3.6
revenue growth stands at ~20%). EBITDA rose 48% YoY to INR4.6b (48%
2238 / 1535
beat), with the margin at ~24.7% (+570bp YoY and 1740bp QoQ), as other
0/-8/-3
expense declined ~500bp YoY (as % of sales). R&D expense stood at
87
INR901m (4.8% of sales). PAT increased ~13% YoY to INR3.2b (29% beat).
33.0
Strong domestic business growth; expect better growth in 2H:
Alkem’s
11 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR1,937 TP: INR1,950(+1%)
Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017
2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
58.5
63.7
EBITDA
10.0
10.9
PAT
8.9
8.2
EPS (INR)
74.6
68.8
Gr. (%)
6.0
-7.7
BV/Sh (INR)
373.7
427.1
RoE (%)
21.9
17.2
RoCE (%)
20.1
16.0
P/E (x)
26.0
28.1
P/BV (x)
5.2
4.5
2019E
74.6
13.5
10.8
90.7
31.8
497.4
19.6
21.8
21.3
3.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
domestic business grew robustly by 15% YoY to INR14.1b, led by channel
refilling post GST. The company is expanding its presence in the domestic
business via new product launches and expanding into new therapies. Alkem
maintained its guidance for mid-teens growth in FY18; with channel refilling
post GST, it is confident to achieve this target. Inventory levels are at ~30
days post GST, up from 17 days in 1QFY18; the company expects this to
improve, going forward.
Key launches to drive US business:
US sales came in at USD47.5m. We
expect ramp-up in the US business in the coming quarters, led by the
expected launch of 8-10 products in FY18. Also, 2H is expected to improve
on the back of seasonally strong quarter for Benzonatate and the launch of
Nexium/Prasugrel.
Key concall takeaways:
a) Price erosion is in single-digit for Alkem. b)
Company is entering OTC business and expects to break-even in 2-3 years. c)
Expects higher than market growth rate going ahead. d) Planning to file 12-
15 ANDAs in FY18. e) Expects in-licensing opportunities in (i) acute segment
in anti-infectives therapy and (ii) chronic in the diabetic segment.
Maintain Neutral:
We continue believing that Alkem is the best way to play
the domestic growth story (>70% of revenue and >85% of EBITDA came from
India in FY17). Having said that, at current valuations, the stock provides
limited room for upside. Our target price of INR1,950 for Alkem is based on
20x 1HFY20E PER (v/s INR1,830 @ 20x FY19E PER).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Kumar Saurabh-Research analyst
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Ankeet Pandya-Research analyst
(Ankeet.Pandya@MotilalOswal.com)