10 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
Bosch
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
33,315
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,322
BOS IN
Below est; Sharp miss on topline; Benefit of BS-4 on revenues not visible
31
Benefit of higher BS-4 ASPs not yet visible:
Revenues grew 6.8% YoY to
691.7 / 9.9
INR28.1b (est. INR34.2b), as against ~6.6% growth in addressable auto
25245 / 18005
industry growth. Auto segment revenues grew ~8.8%, driven by very strong
-8/-23/-23
double digit growth in diesel business and strong double digit growth in
365
gasoline business, but impacted by decline in aftermarket. Non-Auto
29.5
CMP: INR20,458 TP: INR19,965(-3%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2018E
2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
114.4
129.9
EBITDA
20.7
27.0
PAT
14.0
18.4
EPS (INR)
457.8
603.0
Gr. (%)
-3.2
31.7
BV/Sh (INR)
3,154
3,512
RoE (%)
15.2
18.1
RoCE (%)
22.9
26.9
P/E (x)
44.7
34.0
P/BV (x)
6.5
5.8
2020E
148.3
32.3
22.2
727.9
20.7
3,943
19.5
28.6
28.1
5.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
segment grew by 6.7% YoY due to double digit growth in security tech and
solar. Domestic growth came in at 6.5% while exports grew healthy by 40%
YoY led growth mainly from diesel segment exports to European and Brazil.
Product mix, higher trading content impacts EBITDA margin:
EBITDA
margin decreased 50bp YoY (+140bp QoQ) to 18.1% (est 18.5%) mainly led
by lower gross margins (-500bp YoY). RM cost was higher due to unfavorable
mix, higher trading content (due to import of BS4 systems) and also lower
aftermarket sales. Other expenses down 14% YoY (-4.5% QoQ) to INR4b (est
INR5.8b) on one time provision and relocation cost in 2QFY17. Lower other
income further impacted PAT decline by 16.5% YoY to INR3.5b (est INR4.4b).
Earnings call highlights:
a) The management has maintained cautiously
optimistic outlook for 2HFY18. b) Car multimedia business stopped in
2QFY18 impacting revenues. c) Aftermarket marginal negative growth due
to GST. d) Material cost to remain at this level till localization improves. e)
Decline in other income was led by lower MTM gains. f) EV business would
be placed within listed entity, with initial focus on 2W & 3W segment and
later explore other segments.
Valuation and view:
We are downgrading EPS by 15%/14% for FY18/FY19E
to factor in for BS-4 ASPs and its impact on margins. The stock trades at
34x/28x FY19/20E EPS. Maintain
Neutral
with a revised TP of ~INR19,965
(~30x Sep-19 EPS – at 10% premium to 10-year average, but ~15% discount
to 5-year average).
FY18E
2Q
3QE
FY17
4QE
FY18E
Est
2QE
Var.
(%)
Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Y/E March
(INR Million)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
RM Cost (% of sales)
Staff Cost (% of sales)
Other Expenses (% of sales)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT after EO Expense
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
25,418 26,333 26,720 25,746 26,484 28,119 31,262 28,549 104,351 114,413 34,211
-17.8
10.5
10.6
7.7
2.8
4.2
6.8
17.0
10.9
7.6
9.6
31.0
51.3
50.1
54.7
47.6
54.4
55.1
54.5
48.0
51.3
50.1
53.0
210bp
12.8
13.2
14.5
11.0
12.9
12.2
11.3
12.6
12.8
13.2
11.5
70bp
17.3
18.1
20.8
14.1
16.2
14.5
22.0
11.8
17.3
18.1
17.0
-250bp
4,734 4,911 2,667 7,037 4,390 5,080 3,830 7,402 19,604 20,702 6,329
-19.7
18.6
18.6
10.0
27.3
16.6
18.1
12.3
25.9
18.8
18.1
18.5
-40bp
860
889 1,294 1,492 1,062 1,108 1,350 1,538
4,562
5,059 1,150
-4
13
10
17
232
5
0
12
133
272
150
10
-97
1,566 1,890 1,634 1,310 1,295 1,290 1,350 1,489
6,174
5,425 1,350
-4
5,428 5,902 2,991 6,624 4,618 5,262 3,818 7,221 20,944 20,918 6,519
-19.3
1,679 1,673
843 2,219 1,592 1,728 1,260 2,365
7,244
6,945 2,135
-19.1
30.9
28.3
28.2
33.5
34.5
32.8
33.0
32.8
34.6
33.2
32.8
10bp
3,749 4,229 2,148 4,405 3,026 3,533 2,558 4,856 13,700 13,973 4,384
-19.4
3,749 4,229 2,148 4,405 3,026 3,533 2,558 4,856 13,700 13,973 4,384
-19.4
-0.7
10.8
-23.5
-6.8
-19.3
-16.5
19.1
10.2
-9.4
2.0
0.9
Jinesh Gandhi – Research Analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Deep Shah – Research Analyst
(Deep.Shah@MotilalOswal.com) |
Suneeta Kamath – Research Analyst
(Suneeta.Kamath@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Bosch
Exhibit 1: Decline in aftermarket sales due to GST impacts
domestic revenue
Net Sales (INR b)
19
11
5
1
3
10
23
-2 -3
24 25
4
-7
5
Growth (%)
10 11
Exhibit 2:
Domestic and exports drives revenue growth;
domestic aftermarket sales weaker
35.0
Domestic Growth (%)
Exports Growth (%)
40.0
8
3
4
7
8.6
17.4 16.4
2.4
3.3
11.7 12.915.511.4
9.2
8.8 8.1 7.1
6.9
3.6 6.5
-
21 22 24 24 26 24 24
25 25 26 27 26 26 28
(1.2)
(3.2)
(4.2)(1.2)
(5.4)
(7.0)
(18.5) (9.5)
(12.2)
(17.3) (9.1)
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3: Revenue Breakup
INR m
Auto
Growth (%)
Contribution (%)
Non-Auto
Growth (%)
Contribution (%)
Total (post inter segment)
Growth (%)
2QFY16
21,007
(8.0)
88.2
2,862
4.4
12.0
25,690
(6.8)
3QFY16
21,124
(1.2)
85.2
4,042
19.2
16.3
26,187
4.1
4QFY16
21,926
4.2
87.5
3,154
10.7
12.6
26,920
4.9
1QFY17
21,930
11.7
87.0
3,295
(3.2)
13.1
27,235
10.5
2QFY17
22,761
8.3
86.4
3,591
25.4
13.6
28,360
10.6
3QFY17
22,075
4.5
82.6
4,948
22.4
18.5
28,312
7.7
4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18
22,307
23,256
24,205
1.7
6.0
6.3
86.6
87.8
87.9
4,151
3,364
3,980
31.6
2.1
10.8
16.1
12.7
14.5
27,034
28,159
27,522
2.8
4.2
6.8
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 4: EBITDA margins decline 50bp YoY
EBITDA Margins (%)
27.3
22.7
21.0
18.6
18.6
18.3 18.2
18.1
17.6
16.6
16.1
14.3
14.1 15.3
9.2
9.0
10.0
3.3 2.1 4.0 4.5 4.4 2.3 4.7 4.8 4.3 3.5 5.7 4.7 4.9 2.7 7.0 4.4 5.1
EBITDA (INR b)
Exhibit 5: Auto segment drives PBIT
Auto
5
4
26
2
2
4
13
Non-Auto
9
5
3
2
16 13 18
95 96
98 98 96 87 91 95 97 98
84 87 82
74
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 6: PBT break-up
INR m
Auto
Growth (%)
PBIT Margins (%)
Non-Auto
Growth (%)
PBIT Margins (%)
Total
Growth (%)
PBIT Margins (%)
2QFY16
3,847
7.5
16.9
180
22.7
5.8
4,027
8.1
15.6
3QFY16
2,477
191.8
10.9
376
25.8
8.7
2,853
148.6
10.6
4QFY16
4,763
33.8
20.2
496
602.7
14.6
5,259
44.8
19.5
1QFY17
3,999
(9.1)
16.9
199
87.7
5.6
4,198
(6.8)
15.4
2QFY17
4,096
6.5
17.2
145
(19.3)
3.8
4,241
5.3
15.4
3QFY17
2,084
(15.9)
8.8
52
(86.2)
1.0
2,136
(25.1)
7.4
4QFY17
5,152
8.2
21.4
1,005
102.6
22.4
6,158
17.1
21.6
1QFY18
3,468
(13.3)
14.0
501
151.3
13.9
3,969
(5.5)
14.0
2QFY18
4,012
(2.0)
16.6
865
495.1
21.7
4,877
15.0
17.3
10 November 2017
2

Bosch
Valuation and view
Strong industry positioning, technology focus enables high growth visibility
We are downgrading EPS by 15%/14% for FY18/FY19E to factor in for BS-4 ASPs
and its impact on margins.
BOS enjoys very strong and unique positioning in the auto component industry
with focus on technology enabling high value add, strong relationships with
OEMs and strong aftermarket presence
As BOS is at forefront of technological evolution of the Indian auto industry.
However, with BS-4 ASPs apparently lower than originally estimated, revenue
growth would be lower at 9% CAGR over FY17-20E. The next big regulatory
change benefitting BOS would be switchover to BS-6 from FY21.
Operating leverage would drive EBITDA margin improvement of ~300bp to
21.8% by FY20 (over FY17E), driving 11% EPS CAGR over FY17-20E. As a result,
we estimate RoEs to improve to 19.5% and RoICs to 32.6% by FY20.
The stock trades at 34x/28x FY19/20E EPS. Maintain
Neutral
with a revised TP of
~INR19,965 (~30x FY19 Sep EPS – at 10% premium to 10-year average, but ~15%
discount to 5-year average).
Exhibit 6: Revised estimates
(INR b)
Net Sales
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT
EPS (INR)
Rev
114.4
18.1
14.0
457.8
FY18E
Old
129.2
19.0
16.5
540.8
Chg (%)
-11.4
-100bp
-15.3
-15.3
Rev
129.9
20.7
18.4
603.0
FY19E
Old
146.8
21.2
21.3
698.6
Chg (%)
-11.5
-50bp
-13.7
-13.7
Source: MOSL
Exhibit 7: Valuation at premium to 10 year averages
P/E (x)
58.0
46.0
34.0
22.0
10.0
Min (x)
Avg (x)
+1SD
41.5
29.7
17.8
15.3
38.7
Max (x)
-1SD
54.2
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
3.5
P/B (x)
Min (x)
Avg (x)
+1SD
6.6
5.1
2.7
6.3
Max (x)
-1SD
8.7
Source: MOSL
Source: MOSL
10 November 2017
3

Bosch
Exhibit 8: Comparative valuations
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
M&M
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Eicher Motors
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
Exide Industries
Amara Raja Batteries
BOSCH
Endurance Tech
CMP
(INR)*
3,248
3,606
708
1,393
8,165
423
112
30,479
706
201
751
20,485
1,133
Rating
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
TP
(INR)
3,753
3,819
764
1,607
9,466
575
134
36,487
844
254
856
19,965
1,334
P/E (x)
FY18E FY19E
22.4
18.6
19.7
18.6
47.4
27.4
18.6
16.3
28.3
21.4
17.2
6.5
25.0
18.0
36.9
27.2
36.9
25.4
26.6
44.7
41.1
27.1
20.8
22.0
34.0
30.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY18E FY19E
16.9
13.4
12.4
11.8
29.8
18.0
13.8
12.4
17.5
13.7
4.7
2.8
12.2
9.0
28.1
22.7
20.2
15.0
13.8
27.6
18.3
16.2
12.5
11.1
21.0
15.0
RoE (%)
FY18E FY19E
23.3
25.3
33.7
31.1
26.5
35.6
14.5
14.6
20.5
23.0
13.4
28.3
20.4
25.2
36.1
36.4
20.1
12.5
17.3
15.2
20.5
23.2
13.7
18.1
18.1
22.8
Div Yield (%) EPS CAGR (%)
FY18E FY19E
FY17-19E
2.0
2.5
15.0
2.5
2.5
7.1
0.4
0.6
48.3
1.4
1.4
25.6
1.0
1.2
23.8
0.1
0.1
80.8
1.8
2.0
16.9
0.5
0.6
35.2
0.6
1.1
0.6
0.8
0.3
0.7
1.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
41.0
9.1
10.4
12.9
25.0
Source: MOSL
Bosch| Key Operating Indicators
Exhibit 9: Sales to grow 9.2% CAGR over FY17-20R
Net Sales (INR b)
10.4
6.0
1.1
0.3
7.6
Growth (%)
9.6
13.5
14.2
Exhibit 10: Segment Mix to remain stable
Fuel Injection Equipment
Starters & Generators
Others
12
7
11
23
47
CY12
13
8
12
23
44
CY13
15
8
12
26
39
17
8
3
26
46
18
8
4
26
45
Injectors & Nozzles
Power tools
18
8
3
26
45
18
3
8
26
45
18
3
8
27
45
FY15 FY16
(15m)
FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 11: Gross Margins v/s EBITDA margins
EBITDA Margins (%)
15.6
14.0
16.4
19.4
48.8
45.4
46.6
18.8
49.1
47.0
Gross Margins (%)
20.7 21.8
18.1
48.5
48.5
Exhibit 12: Dividend payout
Dividend Payout (%)
40.7
22.9
24.8
24.0
40.7
40.7
40.7
21.2
45.0
CY12
Source: Company, MOSL
CY13
FY15
(15m)
FY16
FY17
FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL
10 November 2017
4

Bosch
Exhibit 13: FCF and Net Cash
CFO (INR b)
Capex (INR b)
FCF (INR b)
Exhibit 14: Cash would be over 63% of the capital employed
Net Cash (INR/sh)
63
66
Net Cash (as % of Cap Employed)
64
64
63
63
48
(5.8)
(3.7)
(4.8)
(7.5)
(6.4)
(5.5)
(6.0)
(6.5)
53
CY12
Source: Company, MOSL
CY13
FY15
(15m)
FY16
FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 15: Over 11% EPS CAGR over FY17-20E…
EPS (INR)
65.2
31.7
11.5
(14.6) (14.3)
(1.8)
(3.2)
20.7
Growth (%)
Exhibit 16: …coupled with improvement in RoIC…
RoIC (%)
26.7
18.6
19.8
13.8
30.4
19.9
27.7
RoE (%)
29.3
18.1
32.6
19.5
23.1
21.2
17.9
15.8
15.2
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
10 November 2017
5

Bosch
Operating metrics
Exhibit 17: Snapshot of Revenue Model
(INR m)
Fuel Injection Equipment
Growth (%)
% of Net Revenues
Injectors, Nozzles and Nozzle holders
Growth (%)
% of Net Revenues
SMG & Auto Electricals
Growth (%)
% of Net Revenues
Portable Electric Power tools
Growth (%)
% of Net Revenues
Others
Growth (%)
% of Net Revenues
Total Gross sale of product
Growth (%)
Less: Excise Duty
Excise Duty (% of Net Sales)
Net Sales
Growth (%)
Service Income
Growth (%)
% of Net Sales
Total Other Operating Income
Net Revenues
Growth (%)
- of which Exports
Growth (%)
% of net revenues
EBITDA
- EBITDA Margins (%)
PAT
EPS (INR/Share)
Core EPS (INR/Share)
CY12
42,960
-3
50
21,423
8
25
9,629
43
11
6,356
12
7
10,954
23
13
91,322
7
7,150
8
84,172
6
1,052
55
1
1,367
86,591
6
9,402
-9
11
13,495
15.6
9,583
305
233
CY13
40,396
-6
46
21,270
-1
24
10,916
13
12
7,146
12
8
12,372
13
14
92,100
1
6,949
8
85,151
1
1,346
28
2
1,070
87,567
1
10,578
13
12
12,277
14.0
8,213
262
193
15M FY15
49,297
-2
41
32,601
23
27
14,448
6
12
9,951
11
8
19,297
25
16
125,594
9
8,180
7
117,414
10
2,000
19
2
1,441
120,855
10
14,625
11
12
19,813
16.4
13,376
426
315
FY16
46,500
18
48
26,300
1
27
3,422
-70
4
8,149
2
8
17,750
15
18
102,121
2
7,405
8
94,716
1
1,200
-25
1
1,098
97,014
0
12,313
5
13
18,781
19.4
15,123
482
354
FY17
49,291
6
47
28,196
7
27
3,931
15
4
8,920
9
9
19,495
10
19
109,834
8
8,074
8
101,759
7
1,451
21
1
1,141
104,351
8
13,229
7
13
19,604
18.8
17,411
570
441
FY18E
54,596
11
48
30,725
9
27
3,105
-21
3
9,964
12
9
21,619
11
19
120,007
9
8,373
8
111,635
10
1,451
0
1
1,327
114,413
10
13,396
1
12
20,702
18.1
13,973
458
354
FY19E
FY20E
61,450
69,156
13
13
47
47
35,444
41,983
15
18
27
28
3,508
4,035
13
15
3
3
11,255
12,589
13
12
9
8
24,128
27,361
12
13
19
18
135,785
155,124
13
14
9,473
10,823
8
8
126,311
144,302
13
14
1,768
2,020
22
14
1
1
1,833
2,022
129,912
148,344
14
14
16,420
18,759
23
14
13
13
26,951
32,270
20.7
21.8
18,406
22,218
603
728
490
604
Source: Company, MOSL
10 November 2017
6

Bosch
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income from Operations
Change (%)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT bef. EO Exp.
EO Items
PBT after EO Exp.
Current Tax
Deferred Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
CY12
86,591
6.0
13,495
15.6
3,670
9,825
55
3,692
13,462
0
13,462
4,155
-276
28.8
9,583
9,583
-14.6
CY13
87,567
1.1
12,277
14.0
3,842
8,435
29
3,526
11,932
0
11,932
4,156
-437
31.2
8,213
8,213
-14.3
15M FY15
120,855
38.0
19,813
16.4
5,484
14,329
143
5,653
19,839
-280
19,558
7,365
-1,183
31.6
13,376
13,568
65.2
FY16
97,014
0.3
18,781
19.4
3,864
14,917
129
6,036
20,824
0
20,824
5,701
0
27.4
15,123
15,123
39.3
FY17
104,351
7.6
19,604
18.8
4,562
15,041
272
6,174
20,944
3,711
24,655
7,244
0
29.4
17,411
14,441
-4.5
FY18E
114,413
9.6
20,702
18.1
5,059
15,643
150
5,425
20,918
0
20,918
6,945
0
33.2
13,973
13,973
-3.2
(INR Million)
FY19E
129,912
13.5
26,951
20.7
5,490
21,461
150
5,856
27,167
0
27,167
8,761
0
32.3
18,406
18,406
31.7
FY20E
148,344
14.2
32,270
21.8
6,021
26,249
150
6,336
32,435
0
32,435
10,217
0
31.5
22,218
22,218
20.7
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Total Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Total Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advances
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Other Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Deferred Tax assets
Appl. of Funds
CY12
314
55,419
55,733
2,304
58,037
39,414
30,781
8,633
4,083
15,286
48,468
10,957
10,270
14,872
12,369
20,985
9,287
4,449
7,249
27,483
2,552
58,037
CY13
314
62,629
62,943
1,831
64,774
43,086
33,705
9,381
4,568
21,851
50,423
12,072
10,735
14,415
13,201
24,438
10,646
6,543
7,249
25,985
2,989
64,774
15M FY15
314
73,156
73,470
1,122
74,592
47,908
38,232
9,676
2,760
28,896
58,805
12,762
11,877
18,960
15,206
29,716
12,165
4,379
13,172
29,089
4,172
74,592
FY16
314
95,035
95,349
149
95,498
55,370
42,096
13,273
1,507
44,495
60,095
11,915
13,225
18,315
16,640
28,831
13,088
5,029
10,713
31,264
4,958
95,498
FY17
305
87,691
87,996
0
87,996
61,796
46,659
15,137
1,289
39,266
57,630
11,804
11,862
17,176
16,788
30,002
13,399
4,767
11,836
27,628
4,676
87,996
FY18E
305
95,975
96,280
0
96,280
61,585
47,417
14,167
1,500
8,698
96,334
12,538
13,792
52,841
17,162
29,096
12,033
5,226
11,836
67,238
4,676
96,280
(INR Million)
FY19E
305
106,885
107,191
0
107,191
67,585
52,907
14,678
1,500
8,698
108,630
14,237
15,661
59,246
19,487
30,991
13,221
5,934
11,836
77,639
4,676
107,191
FY20E
305
120,056
120,361
0
120,361
74,085
58,928
15,157
1,500
8,698
123,848
16,257
17,883
67,457
22,252
33,517
14,904
6,776
11,836
90,331
4,676
120,361
10 November 2017
7

Bosch
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per share
Return Ratios (%)
RoIC
RoE
RoCE
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Working Cap. Turnover (Days)
CY12
305.2
422.1
1,774.9
60.0
22.9
CY13
261.6
383.9
2,004.6
55.0
24.8
15M FY15
432.1
606.8
2,339.8
85.0
24.0
47.4
33.8
8.8
5.2
31.6
0.4
286.1
30.4
19.9
28.7
2.5
1.6
39
34
37
31
FY16
481.6
604.7
3,036.6
85.0
21.2
42.5
33.9
6.7
6.4
33.3
0.4
129.0
27.7
17.9
24.6
1.8
1.0
45
46
49
49
FY17
473.1
622.6
2,883.1
193
40.7
43.3
32.9
7.1
5.8
31.0
0.9
283.4
21.2
15.8
23.1
1.7
1.2
41
39
47
37
FY18E
457.8
623.5
3,154.5
155
40.7
44.7
32.9
6.5
5.0
27.6
0.8
321.5
23.1
15.2
22.9
1.9
1.2
40
41
38
46
FY19E
603.0
782.9
3,511.9
204
40.7
34.0
26.2
5.8
4.4
21.0
1.0
268.4
29.3
18.1
26.9
1.9
1.2
40
41
37
52
FY20E
727.9
925.2
3,943.5
246.3
40.7
28.1
22.1
5.2
3.8
17.3
1.2
362.7
32.6
19.5
28.6
2.0
1.2
40
41
37
56
0.3
82.0
26.7
18.6
24.9
2.2
1.5
46
40
39
53
0.3
169.4
19.8
13.8
19.5
2.0
1.4
50
41
44
48
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest & Finance Charges
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
CF from Operating incl EO
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Others
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
CY12
13,462
3,670
-2,065
-3,631
-1,284
10,152
8,712
-6,138
2,574
2,114
2,231
-1,793
0
289
-25
-1,570
-256
-1,562
5,357
9,515
14,872
CY13
12,566
3,842
-2,343
-4,258
1,552
11,359
10,570
-5,251
5,319
-5,732
2,521
-8,462
0
-473
-28
-2,204
326
-2,379
-271
1,810
1,539
15M FY15
19,559
5,484
-3,474
-6,911
1,316
15,974
13,942
-4,960
8,982
-16,295
9,460
-11,795
0
-709
-86
-2,021
434
-2,382
-235
1,539
1,304
FY16
20,824
3,864
-5,907
-5,701
-2,821
10,259
10,259
-6,208
4,051
-15,600
6,036
-15,772
0
-973
-129
-3,212
0
-4,315
-9,827
1,304
-8,523
FY17
20,944
4,562
-5,903
-7,244
2,497
14,857
14,857
-6,208
8,649
5,229
6,174
5,195
-9
-149
-272
-7,090
0
-7,519
12,533
-8,523
4,009
FY18E
20,918
5,059
-5,275
-6,945
-3,945
9,812
9,812
0
9,812
30,568
5,425
35,993
0
0
-150
-5,690
0
-5,840
39,966
4,009
43,975
(INR Million)
FY19E
27,167
5,490
-5,706
-8,761
-3,996
14,193
14,193
-6,000
8,193
0
5,856
-144
0
0
-150
-7,495
0
-7,645
6,405
43,975
50,379
FY20E
32,435
6,021
-6,186
-10,217
-4,481
17,572
17,572
-6,500
11,072
0
6,336
-164
0
0
-150
-9,047
0
-9,197
8,211
50,379
58,590
10 November 2017
8

Bosch
Corporate profile
Company description
BOS is the best proxy on the Indian automotive
industry, addressing over 40% of the Indian auto
component industry. The company has several
cyclical and structural drivers in place to drive over
20% revenue CAGR over the next 5-6 years. BOS’s
Aftermarket business network is India’s largest
aftermarket network, offering the widest product
portfolio and having the largest independent
service network. Unique industry positioning,
technology focus enables high growth visibility as
reflected in ~34% FY15-18E EPS CAGR.
Exhibit 2: Shareholding pattern (%)
Sep-17
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
70.5
12.9
7.2
9.4
Jun-17
70.5
12.7
7.4
9.4
Sep-16
71.2
11.8
7.7
9.3
Source: Capitaline
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
Exhibit 3: Top holders
Holder Name
GENERAL INSURANCE CORPORATION OF
INDIA
THE NEW INDIA ASSURANCE COMPANY LTD
LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION OF INDIA
(VARIOUS SCHEMES)
ABERDEEN GLOBAL INDIAN EQUITY LIMITED
UNITED INSURANCE COMPANY LIMITED
% Holding
3.2
2.8
2.3
1.0
1.0
Source: Capitaline
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 4: Top management
Name
V K Viswanathan
Soumitra Bhattacharya
Andreas Wolf
S Karthik
Designation
Chairman
Managing Director
Joint Managing Director
Company Secretary
Exhibit 5: Directors
Name
Bernhard Steinruecke
Prasad Chandran
Peter Tyroller
Name
Bhaskar Bhat
Renu S Karnad
Source: Capitaline
*Independent
Exhibit 6: Auditors
Name
Price Waterhouse & Co
Rao Murthy & Associates
Sachin Bhagwat
Type
Statutory
Cost Auditor
Secretarial Audit
Exhibit 7: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
FY18
FY19
FY20
MOSL
forecast
457.8
603.0
727.9
Consensus
forecast
552.0
650.6
769.4
Variation (%)
-17.1
-7.3
-5.4
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Capitaline
10 November 2017
9

Disclosures:
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indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Bosch
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Bosch
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring
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Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE(F&O): INF011041257; BSE(CD); MSE(Cash): INB261041231;
MSE(F&O): INF261041231; MSE(CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset
Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth
management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities
Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
10 November 2017
10