J K Lakshmi Cement
BSE SENSEX
33,034
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,225
JKLC IN
117.7
52.1 / 0.8
514 / 253
12/-25/-17
60.0
54.1
13 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Cement
CMP: INR439
n
TP: INR512 (+16%)
Buy
EBITDA beat led by higher-than-estimated realization
Healthy realization in Gujarat market:
JKLC’s volume increased 10% YoY
(-17% QoQ) to 1.89mt (est. of 1.92mt), as capacity expansion led to strong
volume growth in east. Realization rose 8% YoY (+4% QoQ) to INR4,109 (est.
of INR3,814), led by healthy pricing in Gujarat markets and supported by a
change in commercial terms. Revenue grew 18% YoY (-14% QoQ) to INR7.7b
(est. of INR7.3b), while EBITDA increased 2% YoY (-21% QoQ) to INR954m
(margin: 12.3%; -2pp YoY, -1pp QoQ) v/s our estimate of INR688m,
translating into EBITDA/ton of INR505 (-INR40/t YoY, -INR22/t QoQ;
estimates of INR358/t). Net profit stood at INR132m (-47% YoY) v/s
estimate of a loss of INR107m due to higher-than-estimated EBITDA.
Cost push dents profitability:
Unitary cost per tonne for JKLC increased 10%
YoY (+5% QoQ) due to higher petcoke prices. Freight cost/t increased 16%
QoQ to INR1,082 due to a change in commercial terms. The increase in road
freight rates was partially negated by a decline in lead distance.
Management commentary:
1)
JKLC’s north volume rose 6% YoY to 1.45mt,
while east volume was up 27% YoY to 0.445mt in 2QFY18.
2)
EBITDA/t
differential between north and east is around INR400/t (INR300/t due to
cost differential and realization difference of INR100/t). 3) Commissioning
of WHRS and thermal power plant in east should reduce cost by INR250/t
for the region. 4) OPC is 41%, PPC is 55% and slag is 5% of overall volumes.
Market mix favorable:
We remain positive on JKLC due to its higher
exposure to north/central markets, which we believe are likely to see
highest realization increase due to utilization improvement. However, a
turnaround in east operations would be a key monitorable. The stock trades
at 9.5x/7.6x FY19E/FY20E EV/EBITDA, and USD76/70 per ton on FY19/FY20
capacity. We value JKLC at EV of 9x FY20 EV/EBITDA (implied EV of USD 80
on FY20 capacity), translating to INR512/share. Maintain
Buy.
1Q
2.29
8.0
3,944
7.4
11.7
9,011
15.9
1,203
13.4
439
492
102
374
91
24.4
283
-1.2
3.1
FY18
FY17 FY18E
2Q
3QE
4QE
1.89
2.02
2.41
7.97
8.61
10.0
10.0
5.5
8.7
8.0
4,109 4,259 4,379
3,651
4,176
7.7
16.9
24.0
2.2
14.4
4.2
3.7
2.8
7,767 8,624 10,550 29,104 35,952
18.5
28.6
30.8
11.1
23.5
954 1,166 1,664
3,654
4,988
12.3
13.5
15.8
12.6
13.9
447
440
437
1,724
1,763
489
450
438
1,887
1,869
169
100
57
698
428
188
376
846
742
1,785
56
75
135
(77)
357
29.6
20.0
15.9
-10.4
20.0
132
301
712
819
1,428
-46.9 295.9 242.9 -1,694.8
74.3
1.7
3.5
6.7
2.8
4.0
(INR Million)
2QE Var (%)
1.92
-2
11.0
3,814
8
0.6
-3.3
7,320
6
11.7
688
39
9.4
440
471
100
-123
-253
-16
12.8
-107
-143.0
-1.5
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2018E
2019E
Y/E Mar
36.0
40.5
Net Sales
5.0
6.4
EBITDA
1.4
2.2
PAT
12.1
19.1
EPS (INR)
74.3
57.2
Gr. (%)
128.4
146.2
BV/Sh (INR)
9.9
13.9
RoE (%)
8.1
9.5
RoCE (%)
36.0
40.5
P/E (x)
5.0
6.4
P/BV (x)
2020E
45.8
7.4
3.0
25.2
32.3
170.3
15.9
11.5
45.8
7.4
n
n
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
n
Quarterly performance
Y/E March
Sales Dispatches (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Realization (INR/ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
2.12
27.9
3,673
2.9
7.7
7,772
31.6
1,175
15.1
412
463
104
404
118
29.1
286
-244.1
3.7
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
1.72
1.84
2.28
-1.7
4.0
6.0
3,816 3,645 3,531
3.3
-0.5
3.5
3.9
-4.5
-3.1
6,556 6,709 8,067
1.5
3.5
9.7
937
826
716
14.3
12.3
8.9
412
443
457
471
486
466
179
152
263
233
49
55
-16
-27
-152
-6.8
-54.5 -274.5
249
76
207
-545.5 -1,433.3 -19.8
3.8
1.1
2.6
Abhishek Ghosh – Research analyst
(Abhishek.Ghosh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Pradnya Ganar – Research analyst
(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4322
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.