Grasim Industries
BSE SENSEX
32,942
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,187
GRASIM IN
Margin improvement in VSF and Chemical segments
657
YoY/QoQ numbers not comparable due to merger of ABNL
794.7/12.2
Strong realization drives profits: In 2QFY18, standalone revenue stood at
1300/652
INR40.37b, EBITDA at INR7.85b and PAT at INR6.14b. Realization improved
4/16/39
YoY in the VSF and Chemical segments. Tax rate stood at 27.4% v/s 22.2% in
1514.0
59.9
the corresponding period last year. VFY EBITDA contribution was ~INR610m
14 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Cement
CMP: INR1209 TP: INR1,302(+8%)
Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
449.4
551.3
EBITDA
97.5
127.9
PAT
38.3
54.5
EPS (INR)
81.9
116.8
Gr. (%)
20.8
42.5
BV/Sh (INR)
749.3
861.0
RoE (%)
11.5
14.5
RoCE (%)
11.9
13.3
P/E (x)
14.8
10.4
P/BV(x)
1.6
1.4
2020E
616.0
148.4
62.3
133.5
14.3
989.5
14.4
14.0
9.1
1.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
N.A.
for 2QFY18 (earlier part of the ABNL business).
VSF – realization uptick drives profits:
Volumes
increased 5% YoY on a like-
to-like basis due to inventory restocking by the domestic value chain.
Realization rose 5% YoY, driven by higher global VSF prices. Realization was
weaker QoQ due to the impact of GST. VSF margin stood at 22% (+3pp QoQ,
flat YoY), led by better realization. The lagged effect of softening pulp prices
should be seen in 2HFY18.
Chemical segment – realizations up 19% YoY: Volumes rose 7% YoY on a like-
to-like basis. ECU realizations increased 19% YoY, led by higher caustic
prices, partially offset by negative chlorine realization. Chemical revenue
stood at INR11.68b, with margins of 24.4% (+1.2pp YoY, +1.9pp QoQ).
Margins were impacted by an increase in power cost.
Valuation view:
Grasim’s long-term holding discount to its investment in
Ultratech has been ~40-45%. We expect the company to continue
maintaining its long-term holding discount for its 60% and 57% stakes in
Ultratech and ABCL, respectively. Hence, we value its investments in
Ultratech and ABCL at a 40% discount to current market price, and
investments in other group companies at ~50% discount. We thus arrive at
fair value of INR1,302/share, implying an 8% upside from the current levels.
Maintain
Neutral.
Var.
(%)
0
-3
35
42
Quarterly Performance (Standalone) (INR m)
Y/E March
FY17
FY18
FY17 FY18E
FY18
(Standalone)
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3QE
4QE
2QE
VSF Volume (ton)
121,000 123,994 122,000 133,000 121,000 134,000 134,200 115,794 499,994 504,994 134,000
YoY Change (%)
17.8
9.00
1.1
2.31
0.00
8.07
10.00 -12.94
6.8
1.0
5.0
VSF Realization (INR/ton) 128,039 130,713 137,438 139,960 142,124 137,249 149,808 145,558 135,837 143,685 141,124
YoY Change (%)
13.0
12.0
9.0
11.0
11.0
5.0
9.0
4.0
11.6
5.8
8.0
Net Sales
23,959 24,887 25,260 28,761 27,403 40,373 30,270 10,753 103,457 108,798 29,929
YoY Change (%)
23.8
17.4
9.7
13.1
14.4
62.2
19.8
-62.6
15.3
5.2
20.3
EBITDA
5,078
5,301
5,428
5,254
5,553
7,852
8,012
8,170 21,548 29,587
5,514
Margins (%)
21.2
21.3
21.5
18.3
20.3
19.4
26.5
76.0
20.8
27.2
18.4
Depreciation
1,104
1,119
1,106
1,133
1,103
1,664
1,700
1,695
4,461
6,161
1,160
Interest
231
156
107
83
73
427
440
393
576
1,333
45
Other Income
781
3,587
553
304
658
2,688
450
1,204
4,739
5,000
2,800
PBT before EO Items
4,525
7,612
4,769
4,343
5,036
8,449
6,322
7,286 21,249 27,093
7,109
Extraordinary Inc/(Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
-540
0
0
0
0
0
PBT after EO Items
4,525
7,612
4,769
4,343
5,036
7,909
6,322
7,286 21,249 27,093
7,109
Tax
1,317
1,690
1,455
1,188
1,564
2,164
1,897
2,503
5,649
8,128
2,133
Rate (%)
29.1
22.2
30.5
27.4
31.1
27.4
30.0
34.4
26.6
30.0
30.0
Reported PAT
3,209
5,923
3,314
3,155
3,472
5,745
4,426
4,783 15,600 18,965
4,976
Adj. PAT
3,209
5,923
3,314
3,155
3,472
6,137
4,426
4,783 15,600 18,965
4,976
Margins (%)
13.4
23.8
13.1
11.0
12.7
15.2
14.6
44.5
15.1
17.4
16.6
YoY Change (%)
251.6
55.2
21.9
72.7
8.2
3.6
33.6
51.6
57.0
21.6
-16.0
E: MOSL Estimates
Abhishek Ghosh – Research analyst
(Abhishek.Ghosh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
19
11
15
23
Pradnya Ganar – Research analyst
(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4322
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.