Sector Update | 21 November 2017
Sector Update | Financials
Financials - NBFC
Technology
MSME financing for NBFCs faster
than banks resulting in higher
share for NBFCs (%)
Banks (%)
8
NBFC (%)
MSME lending – Challenging outlook
LAP losing its sheen; some dilution in underwriting standards
CRISIL conducted a webinar on its outlook for the MSME financing sector in India.
NBFCs gaining market share rapidly
18
92
82
FY12
FY17
Against overall system-wide credit growth of ~9% in the past 5 years, the MSME
lending book of banks and NBFCs grew at 13% CAGR to INR14tn currently. With a
more customer-centric, on-the-ground approach, NBFCs have achieved stronger
growth than banks with their MSME lending book growing at 32% CAGR vis-a-vis
10% for banks. Consequently, their market share increased from 8% in FY12 to 18%
in FY17.
Going forward, NBFCs are expected to grow this book at ~20% CAGR,
while that of banks should grow at ~9% CAGR.
LAP a key driver of MSME lending…
As is well known, LAP has been a focused product for several NBFCs over the past
few years, given large scalability potential, attractive margins and modest
delinquencies.
As a result, the LAP portfolio (for banks and NBFCs) grew at 26%
CAGR over FY12-17 as compared to 10% CAGR over the same time period for non-
LAP MSME financing.
It now accounts for 24% of overall MSME lending, compared
to 15% in FY12. For NBFCs alone, it accounts for 67% of the MSME lending book.
However, given increased competition, declining margins and lower demand post
demonetization and GST, the
LAP portfolio is expected to growth at 13-15% CAGR
over the next two years, reaching a size of ~INR4.2t by FY19.
Margins in LAP on the decline (%)
4-4.5
3.7-4.2
3.5-4
…but losing its sheen, of late
In the first half of the decade, NBFCs engaged in LAP enjoyed strong growth with
superior margins, and thus, very good return ratios. However, with increasing
competition over the years, attractiveness of the sector has somewhat faded.
As per
CRISIL, NIMs for NBFCs in LAP declined 30bp from 4-4.5% in FY16 to 3.7-4.2% in
FY17 and is expected to reduce another 20bp in FY18.
At the same time, given
increased delinquencies, GNPL ratio (2-year lagged) increased from 3.1% to 3.9%
over FY15-17. For the whole MSME portfolio of NBFCs, the GNPL ratio increased
from 2.9% to 6.1% over the same time period. Asset quality is expected to worsen in
the near term due to GST-related challenges faced by the unorganised sector.
FY16
FY17
FY18E
Mix for NBFCs – LAP is bulk of
MSME credit
MSME
Secured,
13%
Un-
secured ,
20%
Intense competition leading to moderation in underwriting standards
A key trend observed by CRISIL is that NBFCs have been migrating more towards
lower-ticket LAP due to better yields and lesser competition. Apart from this, there
have been some concerning trends of dilution in underwriting standards witnessed
over the past few quarters. For example, in order to maintain yields,
the share of
commercial properties taken as mortgage for LAP has increased.
Similarly, the
share of unsecured lending by NBFCs is on the rise.
While it currently stands at
20% of overall MSME lending, on an incremental basis, 35% of disbursements are
unsecured. In addition, there have been cases of 3-4 year loan tenures of unsecured
loans being given today (v/s average of 1-2 years). Also, as per CRISIL,
around 35-
40% of disbursements in LAP are balance transfer cases.
LAP, 67%
Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
|
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
21 November 2017
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
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