27 November 2017
Initiating Coverage I Sector: Plastic Products
Nilkamal Limited
BSE SENSEX
33,680
S&P CNX
10,390
CMP: INR1,680
TP: INR2,215 (+32%)
Buy
We recommend BUY on Nilkamal for target price of INR2,215 (20x
September FY19E EPS).
Market leader in moulded furniture (chairs) in India, with strong brand:
Nilkamal is a market leader with ~32% share in the moulded furniture
segment and sells ~1.4 million plastic moulded chairs per annum (one
of the largest in India). The plastics division is the largest revenue
generator for the company at 89% in FY17. The company has been able
to grow this business consistently (8.3% CAGR over FY12-17) on the
back of new products, designs and innovation (ex. Hybrid chairs
combining metal and plastics).
NILK IN
14.9
2275 / 1210
1 /-23 / -1
25.1
0.4
503
36.0
MAXIMUM BUY
PRICE: INR1,780
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
Beneficiary of shift from unorganised to organised:
Market size of
Furniture Industry is ~INR750bn. Of this 85% is unorganized - mainly
carpentered products and there is an accelerated shift towards
organized Ready Furniture sector due to better aesthetics, design,
quality, scalability in manufacturing, paucity of labour and time.
Nilkamal offers ~450 different products in Ready Furniture category
with pan India distribution network. Further GST implementation
would also aid shift from unorganized to organized, where Nilkamal
is a market leader and is best suited to benefit from this shift.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Performance of @home to improve:
Nilkamal's retail division, @home,
Y/E Mar
2018E 2019E 2020E
which had been sluggish over the years, is now witnessing a revival as
Net Sales
21.1
23.1
25.8
well as turnaround at EBIT level. From negative EBIT is the past, the
EBITDA
2.5
2.8
3.2
segment reported INR32mn EBIT profit in FY17 with margin of 1.4%.
PAT
1.3
1.5
1.8
EPS (Rs)
87.3 100.9 120.6
The company is undertaking various initiatives like closing down the
EPS Growth (%)
6.3
15.5
19.5
non-profitable stores, product standardization, improving supply chain
BV/Share (INR) 571.0 651.6 747.4
process, foray into customised kitchens, wall units and wardrobes,
P/E (x)
19.2
16.7
13.9
etc. We believe that the retail business is now at an inflexion point
P/BV (x)
2.9
2.6
2.2
and would pick up pace with the improvement in consumer spending.
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.3
9.1
7.8
We expect Revenue of INR3bn with EBIT margins of 3.2% in FY20.
Div payout (%) 15.5
20.1
20.5
Earnings to grow 14% with stable ROE of 17%:
Over FY12-17, Nilkamal's
RoE (%)
16.3
16.5
17.2
revenue and PAT grew at 7%/17% as EBITDA margin expanded by
RoCE (%)
15.3
15.7
16.6
~110bps. We expect margins to further improve by 110bps over FY17-
Shareholding pattern (%)
20E on the back of better product mix, operational efficiencies and
As On
Sept-17
Jun-17 Mar-17
cost optimization on account of rationalization in the low margin
Promoter
64.1
64.1
64.1
@home division. Going ahead, we expect revenue and PAT CAGR of
MFs
9.6
7.2
5.3
8.4% and 13.7%, respectively, over FY17-20E and EBITDA margins of
FPIs
3.6
4.0
4.9
Others
22.7
24.7
25.7
12.6% in FY20E. RoE is expected to remain largely stable around 17%
over FY17-20E.
Valuation and view:
The company has free cash flows with very low
Investors are advised to refer through
leverage (D/E of 0.14x FY17). Return ratios (RoE) improved from 10%
disclosures made at the end of the Research
in FY15 to ~18% in FY17. Despite steady growth, healthy balance sheet
Report.
and stable RoE the stock is trading at 17x our FY19E EPS. We believe
that with improving product mix and market share shift to organized
players, Nilkamal could command higher valuations. We initiate
Siddhartha Khemka
siddhartha.khemka@MotilalOswal.com
coverage with TP of INR2,215 (20x Sept'FY19 P/E) and recommend Buy.
Tel: +91 22 3010 2452