6 December 2017
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
32,802
-0.2
Nifty-50
10,118
-0.1
Nifty-M 100
19,756
0.0
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,630
-0.4
Nasdaq
6,762
-0.2
FTSE 100
7,328
-0.2
DAX
13,049
-0.1
Hang Seng
11,485
-0.3
Nikkei 225
22,622
-0.4
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
63
0.4
Gold ($/OZ)
1,276
0.2
Cu (US$/MT)
6,513
-4.2
Almn (US$/MT)
2,036
-0.8
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
64.4
0.0
USD/EUR
1.2
0.1
USD/JPY
112.6
-0.2
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
7.1
-0.02
10 Yrs AAA Corp
7.8
-0.01
Flows (USD b)
5-Dec
MTD
FIIs
-0.2
-0.2
DIIs
0.2
0.5
Volumes (INRb)
5-Dec
MTD*
Cash
297
303
F&O
5,110
4,461
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
23.2
23.6
37.7
YTD.%
17.5
25.6
2.6
13.7
22.2
18.4
YTD.%
13.0
10.0
17.9
19.5
YTD.%
-5.1
12.5
-3.9
YTDchg
0.5
0.2
YTD
8.2
13.3
YTD*
307
5,660
Today’s top research Idea
Voltas: AC portfolio overhaul likely post energy rating
norm changes
Voltas-Beko product line to be launched in 2HCY18
We recently met management of Voltas (VOLT). Key takeaways:
New EER norms will force manufacturers to reassess their portfolios and
formulate a renewed strategy to ensure a right product mix/pricing. Inverter
ACs will be rated as five stars, fixed-speed ACs will be rated four stars and
below, and window ACs will have only 2- or 3-star ratings.
Product launch for Arcelik-VOLT JV pushed to 2HCY18 from 2HCY17 due to: a)
higher no. of SKUs being launched and b) more products categories such as
fridges and washing machines to be launched at the same time.
Domestic electro mechanicals business seeing traction in rural electrification,
water and government projects. Overseas, VOLT has not picked up any new
orders in Qatar; deteriorating political climate in Saudi may affect its prospects
in GCC.
Despite competitive pressure in room ACs, VOLT gained market share without
sacrificing margins. A successful transition (ECC norms) would make us turn
positive on VOLT. Meanwhile, we maintain Neutral with TP of INR580.
Research covered
Cos/Sector
Voltas
Dish TV (Result
Update)
D B Corp
MCX
Key Highlights
AC portfolio overhaul likely post energy rating norm changes
Videocon merger synergies to drive earnings
Focus on circulation ramp-up to continue
Volume triggers playing out
Chart of the Day: Economic activity weakened in October 2017; Investments
stagnated and net imports widened
India’s economic activity slowed to 4-month slowest
growth in October 2017…
…pulled by stagnant investments and high net imports
(percentage point)
Please refer to our earlier
report
for details
Shows contribution of different components to EAI’s growth
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

In the news today
Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link
1
Govt unveils Rs8,450 crore
package to revive exports after
GST
The government on Tuesday
announced a series of steps to
revive exports amid disruptions to
supply chains arising from the
implementation of the goods and
services tax (GST). Fresh export
incentives to labour intensive
sectors and services that will…
2
Two major Chinese lenders plan to support a move by China Development
Bank to put Reliance Communications Ltd (RCom) into insolvency court as
they seek to recover about $2 billion in debt, said three people with
knowledge of the matter. Last month, China Development Bank began
insolvency proceedings against RCom, which has been trying for months to
restructure its debt via a debt-for-equity swap. Now, Industrial and
Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the country’s biggest-listed lender by
assets, and Export-Import Bank of China, plan to back CDB, the people
said…
More Chinese lenders plan to file insolvency cases against RCom
3
India decision-day guide:
Watching for a turn toward
hawkish
The Reserve Bank of India will
probably hold interest rates at a
seven-year-low on Wednesday as
growth recovers, while investors
will focus on whether inflation has
quickened decisively enough to
signal future tightening. The
repurchase rate will stay at 6
percent,…
4
The Idea-Vodafone merger is likely
to close faster, as early as next
March-April, six months before
the more conservative September
2018 timeline recently suggested
by Vodafone Group CEO Vittorio
Colao. “Management expects all
approvals for the merger to come
in by March/April 2018,”…
Idea-Vodafone merger likely to
close 6 months earlier, by
March-April
5
Export-oriented auto
manufacturers like Ford India,
Nissan and Volkswagen are
suffering as the current goods and
services tax (GST) system of
making payments upfront and
claiming input tax credit is not
working properly. According to
industry estimates the stuck
amount is around Rs 1,000 crore
as these manufacturers have not
been able to file claims since July.
Industry executives explained that
for export-oriented auto firms,
there are two mechanisms to
expunge tax content in exports…
GST impact: Car exporters
Ford, Nissan, Volkswagen face
Rs 1,000 cr claims hit
6
Services PMI shrinks; new
orders wane
Business activity in the services
sector contracted in November,
following two months of growth,
primarily due to the Goods and
Services Tax, according to a
private sector survey. The Nikkei
India Services Purchasing
Managers’ Index fell to 48.5 in
November from 51.7 in October…
7
Panel moots wide-ranging
revamp to make GST less
taxing
A key committee set up by the
government to simplify the goods
and services tax (GST) has
proposed a wide-ranging revamp
of the reform that was put in place
on July 1 to make compliance
easier. A composition scheme for
services,…
6 December 2017
2

5 December 2017
Update
| Sector:
Capital Goods
Voltas
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
32,870
S&P CNX
10,128
CMP: INR610
TP: INR580(-5%)
AC portfolio overhaul likely post energy rating norm changes
Voltas-Beko product line to be launched in 2HCY18
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
We recently met management of Voltas (VOLT). Key takeaways:
VOLT IN
331
653/300
14/20/74
201.8
3.1
722
69.7
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
60.3
67.9
76.2
EBITDA
5.8
6.7
7.5
PAT
5.1
5.8
6.5
EPS (INR)
15.5
17.5
19.6
Gr. (%)
30.1
13.4
12.0
BV/Sh (INR)
100.0 112.9 127.4
RoE (%)
18.0
16.5
16.3
RoCE (%)
16.5
16.1
16.0
P/E (x)
39.4
34.7
31.0
P/BV (x)
6.1
5.4
4.8
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
Promoter
30.3
30.3
30.3
DII
28.6
27.8
27.2
FII
20.1
19.2
22.4
Others
21.0
22.7
20.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Voltas
Sensex - Rebased
700
600
500
400
300
Room Aircon: New energy ratings to result in complete portfolio overhaul
To comply with the new energy-efficiency rating (EER) norms (which will be
effective January 2018 onward), manufacturers will have to reassess their
existing portfolios and formulate a renewed strategy to ensure a)
a right
product mix
(inverter, fixed aircon) and b)
right pricing
(to pass on the impact
of higher RM costs and rating changes). Under the new EER norms,
inverter ACs
will be rated as five stars, while fixed-speed compressor ACs will be rated four
stars and below.
Each manufacturer will thus have to decide on its strategy on
how best to meet the EER norms.
Window ACs (~20% of the industry) cannot have a 4- or 5-star rating under the
new EER norms. As a result, this segment will have only 2- or 3-star ratings,
which would reduce its share in the overall AC market. VOLT has a +24% share
in window ACs; Daikin, Blue Star, Hitachi are other players present in this
segment.
VOLT is now pushing both inverter and fixed-speed AC – 18 SKUs in inverters as
of 2QFY18, which will be increased further. Share of inverters as a percentage
of sales has increased from 6% previously to 15% in 2QFY18. However, the
margin in inverters is lower than in that in fixed-speed ACs, as sharp price cuts
by a key competitor in invertors has forced other manufacturers to follow suit.
Furthermore, margins are under pressure as old inventory is now sold out and
the company will have to raise prices to factor in higher RM costs. Also, the
interest subvention schemes are hurting margins with a higher number of
consumers preferring to buy under the EMI plans.
VOLT took market share in 2QFY18 – companies that lost market share were
Samsung and Hitachi. VOLT has taken share from these players but 2Q/3Q is
not very relevant as these are seasonally weak quarters.
Arcelik JV with Voltas – launch targeted in 2HCY18
Land acquisition for the new refrigerator plant is almost completed. With EER
changed for fridge in CY17, the JV needs to customize products to (i) comply
with the new norms and b) ensure products are suitable for Indian conditions
before selling in the Indian markets.
Delay in launch due to: a) higher no. of SKUs being launched, and b) more
products categories such as fridges and washing machines to be launched at
the same time. Thus, product launch pushed to 2HCY18 from 2HCY17 earlier.
Until manufacturing starts in India, VOLT will import from Arcelik. It will also
look at outsourced manufacturing.
BEKO is in the mass category – products will be competitively priced v/s the
market leaders like Samsung and LG.
6 December 2017
3

10% margin is being targeted. It intends to be no. 1 or 2 in every segment where
it is present.
It will initially start with refrigerators, washing machines, microwaves and dish
washers. Post five years, the company will look at new products.
Electro mechanicals project segment
The domestic business seeing traction in rural electrification, water and
government projects. Metro projects are witnessing delays in Delhi and
Chennai, but rural electrification projects (INR10b in order book) are doing well,
as the 2019 deadline to electrify all villages is nearing. It bagged orders in
Jharkhand in 2QFY18.
Water is doing well – under the Namami Gange program, it has bagged an order
in Agra; seeing a good pipeline ahead as well.
Blended margins in the projects segment will remain at 5-6%.
Overseas – Qatar witnessing delays on continuing embargo
Qatar:
VOLT has not picked up any new orders in Qatar. It is also seeing delays
in getting material to the site due to the embargo over the last 8-9 months. It
expects new opportunities from the FIFA World Cup 2022. The company is very
selective in picking up orders (INR5b of order book in Qatar).
Dubai Expo, 2020:
Main contractors have been awarded and it now expects
orders for MEP contractors. It is also seeing a revival of previously shelved
projects being bought back for ordering.
Saudi Arabia:
VOLT does not have a meaningful presence in Saudi, but a
deterioration in the political climate here can affect prospects for the entire GCC
region.
Valuation view:
Despite intense competitive pressure in the room AC segment,
VOLT has been able to gain a market share without sacrificing margins. We would
watch out for the company’s a) pricing/positioning on inverters, with the ratings
changes from Jan’18 – a successful transition by VOLT would make us turn positive
on the stock, and b) launch of washing machines and refrigerators in 2HCY18.
Moreover, the projects business has also stabilized with a) margins recovering to 5-
6% and b) a revival in the domestic business. We maintain our
Neutral
rating on the
stock with an SOTP-based target price of INR580.
6 December 2017
4

2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Media
5 December 2017
Dish TV India
BSE SENSEX
32,802
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,118
DITV IN
1,066
85.8 / 1.3
111 / 68
7/-10/-31
481.6
35.6
2019E
34.6
11.7
2.3
2.2
258.1
7.4
34.9
17.9
36.5
10.8
CMP: INR80
TP: INR106(+31%)
Buy
Videocon merger synergies to drive earnings
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
30.1
31.5
Net Sales
9.7
9.7
EBITDA
1.1
0.7
PAT
1.0
0.6
EPS (INR)
-84.2
-40.0
Gr. (%)
4.6
5.2
BV/Sh (INR)
25.1
12.5
RoE (%)
18.0
11.4
RoCE (%)
78.5
130.8
P/E (x)
17.5
15.4
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
EBITDA comes in above estimates:
Dish TV (DITV) delivered healthy EBITDA
growth of 7% QoQ (-18% YoY) to INR2.2b in 2QFY18, 4% above our estimate.
Revenue grew 1% QoQ to INR7.5b, supported by a 2% improvement in
subscription revenue. EBITDA margin improved 160bp QoQ, led by lower
SG&A costs, partly offset by higher transponder cost.
Improving operating environment:
EBITDA margin was also aided by the
gradually reducing churn. Net subscriber addition stood at 188,000 to reach
15.9m (+1% QoQ), while ARPUs strengthened to INR149 v/s INR148 in the
previous quarter. Improvement in monthly churn to ~0.8% v/s 1% in 1QFY18
helped reduce subscriber acquisition cost (to INR1,525/sub) and ad
expenses.
Margin-led growth ahead:
Management continued to guide for 1m annual
subscriber adds in FY18/19 and an ARPU improvement in 2HFY18, led by a)
the fading impact of discounts offered two quarters ago and b) HD
penetration. We believe the EBITDA margin should improve to 30.9% in FY18
v/s 28% in 1HFY18, driven by GST gains, better ARPUs and subscriber adds.
Subsequently, FY18 EBITDA is expected to remain flat, while FY18-20E
EBITDA CAGR should come in healthy at 18%, driven by 10% revenue growth
and a margin improvement. Management maintained FY18/19E synergy
guidance of INR1.8b/INR5.1b from the Videocon merger, which could drive
steep EBITDA growth.
Maintaining our rating and TP:
The stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 7.8x
on FY19E. We maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR106. We have assigned 8x
EV/EBITDA to the combined entity (Dish TV and Videocon d2h), factoring in
INR2.4b synergy gains v/s management’s guidance of INR5.1b. We believe
EBITDA growth driven by merger synergy should drive the stock price.
FY18
1Q
2Q
3QE
7,389 7,486 8,008
-5.1
-3.9
7.1
5,377 5,325 5,396
2,012 2,161 2,612
-24.0 -18.7
4.7
27.2
28.9
32.6
1,822 1,899 1,870
590
611
375
98
77
76
-302
-272
443
-162
-93
151
53.8
34.3
34.0
-139
-179
292
-135.0 -125.9 9.7
-1.9
-2.4
3.7
FY17
4QE
8,596
21.3
5,662
2,934
54.0
34.1
1,841
139
74
1,029
347
33.8
681
-340.0
7.9
FY18E
2QFY18E
7,554
-3.1
5,467
2,087
-21.4
27.6
1,870
261
87
44
15
34.0
29
-95.8
0.4
Var %
-1
-3
4
124bp
2
134
-12
NM
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Revenue
YoY Change (%)
Operating expenses
EBITDA
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Net profit
YoY Change (%)
PAT margin (%)
1Q
7,786
5.7
5,139
2,647
12.3
34.0
1,649
526
115
587
189
32.2
398
-25.0
5.1
FY17
2Q
3Q
7,793 7,480
3.6
-3.0
5,151 4,985
2,642 2,495
3.6
-6.0
33.9
33.4
1,635 1,656
554
591
111
181
565
429
-136
163
(24.1) 37.9
701
267
-19.4 -61.1
9.0
3.6
4Q
7,086
-11.4
5,180
1,906
-26.9
26.9
1,728
573
104
-291
-7
2.4
-284
-105.9
-4.0
30,144 31,479
-1.5
4.4
20,415 21,760
9,729 9,719
-5.1
-0.1
32.3
30.9
6,631 7,432
2,239 1,714
475
325
1,334
898
241
243
18.1
27.0
1,093
656
-84.2 -40.0
3.6
2.1
NM
-277bp
6 December 2017
5

5 December 2017
Update
| Sector:
Media
D B Corp
Buy
BSE SENSEX
32,870
S&P CNX
10,128
CMP: INR362
TP: INR430(+19%)
Focus on circulation ramp-up to continue
We recently hosted DB Corp’s management at our ‘Midcap Conference’.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
DBCL IN
184
395/345
-1/-7/-26
66.5
1.0
134.4
30.2
Ad growth was impacted in October 2017 due to the shift in the festive season to the
previous quarter. However, the ad growth outlook for November appears better due
to a low base of last year (was impacted by demonetization).
Management plans to expand to additional 27 districts of Bihar and also increase
circulation across other legacy markets. Management targets to take total copies to
6m by March 2018 from 5.6m in October 2017. Also, yield improvement taken in the
legacy markets is expected to support growth in 2HFY18 (11% CAGR over FY12-17).
We expect ad/circulation revenue CAGR of 7%/9% over FY17-20, led by an improving
ad market and an increase in the number of circulation copies at healthy pricing.
State elections in its legacy markets next year and the general election in 2019 should
support growth. We expect EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 9%/14% over FY17-20E.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
22.6
24.2
26.1
EBITDA
6.4
6.9
7.5
PAT
3.7
4.0
4.7
EPS (INR)
20.0
21.7
25.4
Gr. (%)
26.0
8.6
16.8
BV/Sh (INR)
86.7 103.8 124.4
RoE (%)
24.6
22.8
22.2
RoCE (%)
23.7
22.3
21.7
P/E (x)
18.1
16.6
14.2
P/BV (x)
4.2
3.5
2.9
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sept-17 Jun-17 Sept-16
Promoter
69.9
69.9
69.9
DII
7.4
7.1
7
FII
15.6
15.8
18.6
Others
7.2
7.3
4.5
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
D B Corp
Sensex - Rebased
480
430
380
330
Ad revenue to grow at 8% in FY18
Ad growth was impacted in October 2017 due to the shift in the festive season to
the previous quarter. Although November appears upbeat due to a low base, the
changes in the GST rates and compliance norms should continue impacting ad
revenue for the company. Sector-wise, the contribution from real estate (earlier 8-
9% of ad revenues; now ~4%), two-wheelers and government continues to
disappoint; however, four-wheelers, durables, lifestyle and education are showing
some recovery. Encouragingly, management expects the education sector
contribution (13-14% of ad revenue) to pick up from 4QFY18. Overall, we expect
11%/8% growth in 3QFY18/FY18.
Expanding reach in Bihar – a positive
DBCL forayed into the Bihar market in 2014 with 11 (of 38) districts at a cover price
of ~INR3. Currently, the market share in Bihar is very miniscule, but the company
expects to expand its reach to the remaining 27 districts in the next few months.
Out of total Bihar ad revenue market, government’s share is ~40-45%. Also, within
a period of one year, DBCL should get empanelled on the board of government
advertising, earning a large pie of the ad market. Besides, national (30-35% share)
and local players are also likely to increase their ad budgets with DBCL in Bihar.
Historically, the company has witnessed breakeven at ~25% revenue market share
(taking ~4 years) in circulation, and a similar trend is expected to be seen in Bihar
as well.
6 December 2017
6

Circulation copies to reach 6m by March, driving 9% circulation growth in
FY18
By employing a circulation expansion strategy, DBCL has managed to increase its
circulation copies to 5.6m (from 5m in July-17), majorly in the dominant markets of
Rajasthan, Gujarat and MP, at a higher cover price. The company has managed to
double its cover price from INR2.5 to ~INR5 in MP, with an increase in the number of
copies from ~1m to ~1.25m. Foray in the 27 new districts of Bihar should further
increase circulation copies. Management expects total copies to reach 6m by March
2018 from 5.6m currently. It also plans to continue with yield improvement in the
legacy markets (11% CAGR over FY12-17). We expect circulation revenue to grow at
9% in FY18. Note that DBCL has no plans of expanding in other new markets.
Digital to see INR150-200m investment over 2-3 years
The DBCL app has been downloaded 10.9m times. The company plans to invest
INR150-200m in digital over the next 2-3 years, mainly toward app upgradation,
video content and online website.
Revenue/EBITDA to grow at 7%/9% over FY17-20E
We expect ad/circulation revenue CAGR of 7%/9% over FY17-20, led by an
improving ad market and an increase in circulation copies at healthy pricing. State
elections in the legacy markets of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2018, and the
general elections in 2019 should also support growth. The recent ~15% increase in
imported newsprint price would not have any major impact on DBCL, as the contract
would be valid for six more months and prices should normalize by then. Unlike
peers, the company has increased its imported newsprint contribution from ~15%
earlier to 40%, focusing on quality. Further, healthy revenue growth in the radio
segment, coupled with EBITDA break-even at the newer stations in CY18, augurs
well. We expect EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 9%/14% over FY17-20.
Maintain Buy with a TP of INR430
DBCL trades at 14.2x P/E on FY19E. We maintain our
Buy
rating, assigning 17x P/E
on FY19E (at a 6% discount to 3-5 year average P/E of 18x), and arrive at a target
price of INR430.
Exhibit 1: Valuation Summary
Valuation
EPS (INR)
PE multiple (x)
Target Price (INR)
CMP (INR)
Upside (%)
FY19E
25.4
17.0
430
361
19%
Source: MOSL, Company
6 December 2017
7

5 December 2017
Update
| Sector:
Others
MCX
Buy
BSE SENSEX
32,802
S&P CNX
10,118
CMP: INR907
TP: INR1,300 (+43%)
Volume triggers playing out
Reiterate Buy; increased competition remains a key risk
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
MCX IN
51
1411 / 899
-8/-17/-49
46.2
0.7
417
100.0
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
2.6
2.8
3.7
EBITDA
0.8
0.9
1.7
PAT
1.3
1.3
2.0
EPS (INR)
24.8
26.5
39.2
Gr. (%)
6.2
6.6
48.0
BV/Sh (INR)
266.4 262.0 281.9
RoE (%)
10.2
10.0
14.4
RoCE (%)
10.0
9.7
14.0
P/E (x)
36.5
34.3
23.1
P/BV (x)
3.4
3.5
3.2
Shareholding pattern (%)
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
As On
Promoter
0.0
0.0
0.0
DII
33.6
35.8
39.8
FII
30.9
25.8
19.6
Others
35.5
38.4
40.6
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Multi Comm. Exc.
Sensex - Rebased
1,690
1,490
1,290
1,090
890
We hosted MCX at our recent Midcap Conference. In our discussions, we covered a range
of topics such as volumes on the exchange, potential triggers, and competitive threats.
Some notable highlights:
Post demonetization, a series of problems has kept a revival in bullion at bay – gold
volumes have declined 47% and silver volumes have declined 31% in the last 12
months. However, there has been a strong volume uptick in base metals.
The recently-launched options constitute 5% of total gold volumes; MCX expects
~20% contribution towards the end of FY18. A basket approval on the rest of the
eligible contracts can be expected soon, as clearing and settlement on the first expiry
has been seamless. MCX would begin charging on options once it has more
commodities covered and once participation reaches a satisfactory level.
While there are triggers in the form of new products and higher participation, threat
also exists from increased competitive intensity on the Universal Exchange License
proposition. Current SEBI criteria for the launch of options protect MCX; any
relaxation would reverse the situation and pose additional risks.
Cash deployment – may contemplate owning technology in the future
MCX may consider various options for its technology agreement with Financial
Technologies, including buying the platform out, once the contract runs down by
FY22. While this could cost INR2b-2.5b, buying out would result in opex savings of
up to INR500m per annum, before the cost of a few employees who will be
brought on-board. With its current cash balance of INR13b, MCX has the ability to
weather the storm in case of predatory pricing. Of the cash balance, INR2.5b is
member margin. The clearing corporation subsidiary would need parking of INR3b,
of which INR1b has been capitalized and INR2b would need to be put in.
Bullion volume still a drag
Post demonetization, a series of problems has kept a revival in bullion at bay – gold
volumes have declined 47% and silver volumes have declined 31% in the last 12
months. GST-related uncertainty, low inventory and share loss of smaller players in
the jewelry market have resulted in the share of bullion in overall volumes on MCX
coming off to 24% as at November 2017 versus 29% in the previous year. On the
other hand, base metals have been seeing a pickup in volumes across aluminum
(14% YoY LTM), copper (4%), lead (18%), nickel (18%) and zinc (33%), which
together contribute 42% of volume (versus 37% in the previous year).
Options pick-up reasonable so far
Earlier in October, MCX introduced options on its 1kg gold contract. While with one
expiry down, options constitute 5% of the total gold volume, the company expects
~20% contribution towards the end of FY18. A basket approval on the rest of the
eligible contracts can be expected soon, as clearing and settlement on the first
expiry has been seamless. MCX would begin charging on options once it has more
commodities covered and once participation reaches a satisfactory level. Pricing on
6 December 2017
8

options is expected to yield 25-30% of that on futures contracts for the same
underlying. Six more contracts on MCX will qualify for trading in options, and that
should help drive volumes. The parallel in equities, if any cue (options volumes are
~5x futures volumes), is encouraging.
Other triggers to volumes
MCX is hopeful of increased liquidity in longer duration contracts as institutional
participation increases, led by permission to AIFs and mutual funds for taking
exposure in the commodities market. MCX is currently in discussions with 20+ AIFs,
while only one has started to trade on MCX. Another positive recent development
that would further propel the level of participation is that the RBI has opened up
broking subscriptions for banks, which would extend reach and make it wider
compared to the current network of national distributors.
Universal license a matter of time
Universal exchanges are bound to happen, thanks to Finance Ministry plans. This
would enable both BSE and NSE to enter into the commodities segment, thereby
intensifying competition. Predatory pricing is likely, given that the commodities
space is greenfield for the new entrants. MCX may have to take price cuts to
maintain its share in the market. At the same time, a small offset is that this would
also open up additional opportunities for MCX, of which, it intends to tap the
currencies market.
Our views on MCX
Regulator’s drive in sync with our positive thesis:
Our positive thesis on MCX
stems from the belief that it is a platform on its transformation journey from
catering largely to speculative interests of a small set of participants to a deeper
ecosystem that eventually acts as a platform for hedgers across commodities.
The ideas brought forth during the event re-emphasized those endeavors of the
regulator-exchanges combine, and growth in the exchange’s liquidity will be an
indicator of the progress. We expect FY19 volumes to increase to INR330b/day
from FY17 levels of INR235b, driving earnings CAGR of 24% during this period.
Our price target of INR1,300 discounts forward earnings by 30x. Maintain
Buy.
The multiple will be revisited basis the volumes ramp up once options expand to
all commodities.
Options criteria protect MCX’s turf:
MCX’s monopolistic hold in the non-
agricultural commodities was strengthened by the criteria for an exchange to
launch options – INR10b+ average daily turnover for a year in the commodity of
interest. We believe this criterion protects MCX’s turf amid likelihood of
competition being allowed in the commodities derivatives segment.
Any policy relaxation for new exchanges is a potential risk:
It is natural that the
new exchanges will seek relaxation on this criterion, and any change to the
prevailing regulation is a risk. It will further the competition's agenda to
undercut MCX's prevailing charges, thereby eliciting a response from the leader
to respond with requisite aggression. Even if it holds on to its leading market
share, the interim financial performance will take a dent.
6 December 2017
9

In conversation
1. BHARAT FORGE : To invest Rs700cr in domestic capex;
Defence orders healthy; Baba Kalyani, CMD
Confident of not only maintaining growth rate but aim to do better than that
going forward.
Company also has big expansion plans for the domestic market. Would spend Rs
500 crore expanding capacity within their facilities outside Pune and also spend
Rs 200 crore to set up facility in Andhra Pradesh for light weight components.
Orderbook for oil and gas business is also pretty strong. Almost 4-5 times last
year. Manufacturing more and more products in that segment in an effort to
increase the share of that in the total pie. The response from customers is very
encouraging.
North American economy is doing extremely well and so the company is
benefiting from that. However, only 12 percent of company’s revenues comes
from North American Class 8 Trucks. No longer highly dependent on that
market, although market share in that market has gone up.
On defence business, order pipeline is healthy and beginning to get export
orders as well. Recently test-fired two artillery guns in Pokhran and will be going
for winter-trial to Sikkim. Expect defence orders to come through in the next 24
months.
Regarding BEML, pursuing it but the process has not started in the way it was
expected. With regards to Amtek Auto, doing due diligence by the middle of this
month.
Demand for aluminium power train products have increased multifold in
Europe.
2. SHALBY HOSPITALS : To use large part of IPO proceeds to pare
debt; 2 hospitals mature; Vikram Shah, Chairman and MD
Company is the largest joint preplacement center in the entire world.
Large part of the IPO proceeds will be used to pare debt and some for
improvisation of facilities and buying equipment.
Once the balance sheet is free of debt, can leverage it after six months.
Return on capital employed very high compared to peers and so are also able to
remain EBITDA positive at 27-28 percent occupancy. Confident of maintaining
margins above 20 percent going forward.
Bed capacity is over 2000 beds and 840 beds are currently operational with two
mature hospitals and four that have begun recently.
One hospital takes couple of years to breakeven.
6 December 2017
10

3. RUPA & COMPANY : Aims Rs500cr of sales from 'Fruit of the
Loom' brand in next 2-3 yrs; Ramesh Agarwal, Whole Time
Director
Should have significant share of the premium inner wear pie.
Aiming at 20 percent revenue share in the next two years.
Have tie-ups with 'FCUK' and 'Fruit of the Loom'. However, expect major portion
of premium revenue to come from 'Fruit of the Loom' brand.
Aim to achieve sales of Rs 500 crore from 'Fruit of the Loom' in next two-three
years.
Agreement with ‘Fruit of the Loom’ is for 10 years.
4. BALAJI AMINES : FY18 revenue expected at Rs800-850cr; No
plans on expanding hotel biz; D Ram Reddy, Joint MD
Will release detailed report with regards to project on Solapur land in 2-3
months.
Government of Maharashtra has given the approval for the mega project status
for about Rs 300 crore investments.
Will use Rs 120 crore from internal accruals and will raise Rs 200 crore for
expansion purposes by end of 2019.
FY18 revenue expected at Rs 800-850 crore. No plans to expand the hotel
business.
6 December 2017
11

From the think tank
1. Decoding the imports surge post demonetisation
Indian imports rose by 23.40% year-on-year (y-o-y) for the first eight months of
the calendar year 2017, after contracting by 6.80% between April-December
2016. Many economists believe that the sharp reversal in imports could be
attributed to broken domestic supply chains, as a consequence of the
demonetisation exercise that was conducted in November 2016. Experts also
point to low industrial production numbers, which they claim suggest that rising
imports are substituting domestic production rather than satisfying increased
domestic demand. Is this causal inference correct? We believe that it is not, and
we present compelling evidence in this article to support our view. Even before
getting into what leads to an imports surge, it is instructive to analyse the nature
of India’s import bill and the drivers of imports growth. For January-August 2017,
the three sectors, namely, mineral products, stone and glass, and
electrical/machinery (out of 15 according to the Harmonized Classification
System), accounted for 64.83% of the import bill. Some of the important
commodities within these sectors include petroleum, liquefied natural gas,
diamonds, gold and mechanical equipment.
2. New catalysts in Gujarat’s chemistry
A curious catalyst has surfaced in the electoral chemistry of Gujarat. In the
Hindutva laboratory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been the dominant
reactant as also the end product for the last 15 years. Nationalism, a sub-
national Gujarati pride and Modi’s larger-than-life persona have come to be
linked organically with a deeply religious and communally divided electorate.
The other reactant, the Congress, has steadily lost its atomic weight, structural
strength and political viability. The result is predictable if viewed only as a
reaction between the two principal reactants. But in a week-long field
experiment, I realised that the new catalyst and its strength in altering the
equation cannot be undermined. A sharp rural distress, joblessness, squeeze of
industry through GST and demonetisation are part of the chemical composition
of this catalyst. These political economy issues hitherto eclipsed by the emotive
appeal of Hindutva and Modi have now found fresh articulation through home-
grown leaders like Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakur and Jignesh Mavani.
3. Estonia has lessons for India’s Digital Economy
In the next three years, India will add more than 300 million new mobile
subscribers—and, by 2025, it is highly likely that the country will be the largest
mobile market in the world. Like other countries in Asia, India is developing a
“mobile-first” digital culture, with smartphones fuelling a boom in e-commerce and
other forms of business. It is countries like South Korea that today lead the world’s
move into online entertainment, but these countries may soon be surpassed by
India. With a rapidly growing middle class, and a young, tech-savvy population,
online personal services are about to take a big jump and international companies
are ready to radically increase their investment in India’s digital economy. Just as
many Indian information technology (IT) service companies have become global
leaders, there is a good chance that the next decades will see new Indian
entrepreneurs shaking up the global digital economy.
6 December 2017
12

4. The sustained case for an RBI rate cut
The constellation of recent economic data has led to the consensus view that the
monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has no room
to reduce policy interest rates this week. It is a compelling argument. Inflation has
climbed rapidly after hitting a low in June, and is likely to overshoot the 4% mark by
the end of the current fiscal. Core inflation is sticky. Global commodity prices—
especially crude oil—have hardened. Economic activity picked up in the September
quarter. Many other central banks are likely to tighten monetary policy in the
months ahead if the worldwide economic recovery strengthens.
International
5. The long and winding road to a haircut
Default is back. Sovereign finances weathered a wrenching global recession and
a collapse in commodity prices surprisingly well over the past few years. But
failed economic models cannot limp along forever, and the slow bleeding of the
economies of Puerto Rico and Venezuela have now forced their leaders to say
“no mas” to repaying creditors. Earlier this year, Puerto Rico declared
bankruptcy. At the time, the United States commonwealth had about $70 billion
in debt and another $50 billion or so in pension liabilities. This made it the
largest “municipal” bankruptcy filing in US history.
The debt crisis came after more than a decade of recession (Puerto Rico’s per
capita GDP peaked in 2004), declining revenues, and a steady slide in its
population. The demographic trends are all the more worrisome because those
fleeing Puerto Rico in search of better opportunities on the US mainland are
much younger than the population staying behind.
6 December 2017
13

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
776
114
3,161
698
19,942
1,719
28,920
1,225
662
203
3,522
1,389
236
8,496
402
737
TP
% Upside
EPS (INR)
(INR) Downside FY17 FY18E FY19E
856
134
4,197
844
19,965
2,116
34,722
1,334
688
254
3,819
1,658
-
9,866
575
764
10
17
33
21
0
23
20
9
4
25
8
19
16
43
4
28.0
4.6
141.1
13.1
473.1
93.3
612.7
23.5
20.0
8.1
169.1
54.3
5.4
248.6
19.8
11.7
28.3
4.5
155.4
19.1
457.8
82.5
814.7
27.6
35.8
7.9
183.1
75.0
9.9
288.1
24.6
14.9
34.2
6.2
187.9
26.0
603.0
116.9
1,062.7
36.7
45.9
9.7
193.9
85.7
11.8
381.0
64.8
25.8
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY19E
27.7
25.1
22.4
53.4
42.1
18.4
47.2
52.1
33.1
25.0
20.8
25.6
44.1
34.2
20.3
62.8
29.3
34.7
26.4
27.6
22.4
32.1
20.0
18.0
34.6
NM
37.3
42.9
12.7
21.1
30.0
28.4
NM
19.9
38.4
13.2
NM
28.3
1,073.4
19.9
116.1
NA
53.3
47.4
28.2
28.3
20.2
62.1
35.8
80.9
17.3
27.5 5.1 4.4
25.4 5.5 5.0
20.3 5.4 4.8
36.5 7.9 6.8
43.6 6.9 6.3
20.8 2.9 2.6
35.5 14.7 11.1
44.4 10.0 8.4
18.5 3.4 2.9
25.6 3.5 3.2
19.2 7.0 6.1
18.5 3.2 2.9
23.9 2.7 2.5
29.5 7.1 6.2
16.3 2.4 2.1
49.4 14.5 11.9
24.8 5.0 4.4
29.0
21.8
80.5
19.5
26.5
22.5
19.4
27.3
18.2
31.2
31.2
17.0
17.3
25.3
9.5
58.0
23.1
9.1
10.6
7.3
20.6
21.9
NM
20.3
2.4
2.7
2.1
2.1
5.4
2.3
1.2
4.8
0.7
4.8
4.5
1.2
3.3
3.5
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.5
1.3
0.3
1.0
1.5
0.5
1.0
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.7
4.8
2.4
1.2
4.3
0.7
4.3
3.2
1.2
2.8
3.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.5
1.2
0.3
0.9
1.4
0.6
0.9
20.3
23.1
26.9
16.2
15.8
16.9
37.1
20.8
10.6
13.9
35.7
14.2
6.4
20.3
9.8
25.6
17.2
6.9
10.8
9.5
9.9
18.3
10.9
7.2
15.3
-27.0
13.8
12.3
9.0
18.9
11.5
4.0
-6.7
4.2
1.4
10.1
-8.4
3.6
-0.2
2.7
0.9
0.0
21.6
15.1
12.0
18.0
14.4
32.5
18.9
25.5
25.5
17.3
20.4
25.0
20.1
15.2
13.0
35.7
20.5
16.8
12.5
33.7
14.5
10.8
20.5
13.4
26.5
17.9
7.3
11.5
2.6
9.6
18.8
8.8
6.3
16.9
4.0
14.8
12.4
6.7
17.3
11.9
6.4
1.5
3.4
5.8
11.6
4.6
4.7
7.0
-4.7
4.6
12.5
20.2
15.3
13.2
19.6
14.1
32.8
19.3
22.7
27.6
18.1
25.2
26.8
23.2
18.1
16.2
35.0
22.8
18.4
13.7
31.1
14.6
11.5
23.0
28.3
35.6
22.8
10.8
11.8
8.2
10.0
20.4
10.5
6.9
19.0
8.0
16.5
13.7
12.6
19.5
13.9
9.4
4.3
6.1
7.3
12.7
5.4
7.1
11.4
2.1
7.7
12.3
20.4
19.3
15.4
19.6
15.3
32.8
18.6
22.2
30.7
Company
Automobiles
Amara Raja
Ashok Ley.
Bajaj Auto
Bharat Forge
Bosch
CEAT
Eicher Mot.
Endurance Tech.
Escorts
Exide Ind
Hero Moto
M&M
Mahindra CIE
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
TVS Motor
Aggregate
Banks - Private
Axis Bank
DCB Bank
Equitas Hold.
Federal Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
IDFC Bank
IndusInd
J&K Bank
Kotak Mah. Bk
RBL Bank
South Indian
Yes Bank
Aggregate
Banks - PSU
BOB
BOI
Canara
IDBI Bk
Indian Bk
OBC
PNB
SBI
Union Bk
Aggregate
NBFCs
Aditya Birla Cap
Bajaj Fin.
Bharat Fin.
Capital First
Cholaman.Inv.&Fn
Dewan Hsg.
GRUH Fin.
HDFC
HDFC Stand. Life
Indiabulls Hsg
Reco
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Not Rated
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
534
185
139
108
1,823
305
54
1,665
75
1,000
510
32
309
680
197
209
146
2,150
355
56
2,000
100
1,179
665
36
382
27
6
50
35
18
16
4
20
33
18
30
14
24
15.4
7.0
5.0
4.8
56.8
15.3
3.0
48.1
-31.3
26.8
11.9
2.5
14.6
18.4
8.5
1.7
5.5
68.7
13.6
2.8
60.9
4.1
32.1
16.4
1.9
17.8
30.8
10.5
5.7
6.6
84.7
17.0
3.2
78.6
8.7
41.6
23.0
3.8
23.3
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
170
184
373
59
388
124
176
319
161
201
201
386
49
438
150
250
415
175
18
9
3
-16
13
21
42
30
9
6.0
-14.8
18.8
1.5
29.3
-31.6
6.2
0.3
8.1
17.9
3.2
16.1
6.4
36.7
17.1
8.5
14.6
-13.5
22.6
9.2
30.3
8.6
44.0
21.4
13.5
26.8
6.0
Buy
Buy
Under Review
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
190
1,707
995
695
1,303
598
505
1,679
362
1,188
231
2,300
-
925
1,500
690
500
2,000
370
1,550
22
35
33
15
15
-1
19
2
30
0.0
32.0
21.0
24.6
46.0
29.6
8.1
46.8
4.5
68.6
3.7
45.7
30.3
32.8
59.2
37.6
9.9
51.6
4.7
83.6
5.4
63.7
47.2
43.7
70.4
46.0
12.0
57.1
5.4
105.1
51.2 NA 4.9
37.3 10.2 6.0
32.8 5.6 4.6
21.2 3.0 2.6
22.0 4.7 4.0
15.9 2.4 2.1
51.1 18.6 15.3
32.6 6.6 6.0
76.8 NA NA
14.2 4.2 3.7
6 December 2017
14

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
171
573
103
442
438
1,308
610
2,082
1,373
TP
% Upside
EPS (INR)
(INR) Downside FY17 FY18E FY19E
240
41
5.2
6.9
10.4
680
19
38.2 41.0 46.5
-
8.6
9.2
9.7
500
13
7.1 14.2 19.1
550
25
29.5 42.6 42.0
1,750
34
31.6 52.5 66.5
800
31
29.1 36.0 41.9
2,650
27
84.3 115.6 145.3
1,500
9
22.2 15.5 11.8
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
FY17 FY18E
32.6
24.6
15.0
14.0
11.9
11.2
62.3
31.2
14.8
10.3
41.4
24.9
20.9
17.0
24.7
18.0
61.9
88.8
32.8
26.2
69.2
28.9
67.2
58.1
58.3
20.6
32.8
71.3
53.0
26.4
28.5
65.4
55.5
35.3
20.0
40.2
37.0
53.2
46.8
39.4
78.9
16.5
29.8
29.5
59.1
25.2
NM
411.9
NM
44.2
42.8
37.1
53.0
64.6
48.5
47.3
48.6
51.7
39.0
64.2
30.3
32.1
P/B (x)
FY17 FY18E
3.9 3.4
2.6 2.3
2.6 2.4
3.9 3.6
2.7 2.2
4.0 3.5
3.4 2.8
2.7 2.4
2.8 2.4
5.3 4.5
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY19E
12.4 14.9 18.9
19.1 17.4 17.2
24.0 22.3 21.4
6.4 11.9 14.8
19.4 23.8 19.9
13.8 15.0 16.7
17.4 18.0 17.6
11.7 14.3 15.9
11.7 15.1 17.4
16.1 17.2 17.9
12.7
20.6
1.5
18.0
76.4
6.2
21.2
12.4
18.2
19.2
12.5
9.3
19.8
14.3
16.9
18.0
10.3
5.1
7.9
7.1
7.2
10.8
3.4
14.4
6.1
19.0
-3.2
1.4
-0.6
18.4
11.6
9.3
28.5
36.9
50.4
28.4
35.8
24.6
22.2
66.5
23.5
21.1
11.6
17.9
3.3
20.2
51.0
2.1
18.1
21.8
19.5
19.5
13.1
9.1
21.4
12.6
17.5
16.5
11.0
7.0
11.1
7.3
10.3
11.5
3.5
17.5
9.9
16.0
12.3
13.7
6.1
20.0
11.1
10.6
26.9
34.0
48.7
26.0
31.7
23.8
21.4
75.9
24.4
15.5
14.6
18.1
3.3
27.8
49.8
3.3
22.2
22.6
21.2
20.2
14.0
13.1
21.5
13.2
16.4
16.3
12.1
8.0
14.2
12.0
12.7
14.5
6.0
19.2
13.9
17.9
15.6
21.3
11.3
17.4
14.2
12.9
29.4
35.2
56.2
27.3
34.0
22.9
22.6
88.0
25.6
18.3
Company
L&T Fin Holdings
LIC Hsg Fin
Manappuram
M&M Fin.
Muthoot Fin
PNB Housing
Repco Home
Shriram City Union
STF
Aggregate
Capital Goods
ABB
Bharat Elec.
BHEL
Blue Star
CG Cons. Elec.
CG Power & Indu.
Cummins
GE T&D
Havells
K E C Intl
L&T
Siemens
Solar Ind
Thermax
Va Tech Wab.
Voltas
Aggregate
Cement
Ambuja Cem.
ACC
Birla Corp.
Dalmia Bharat
Grasim Inds.
India Cem
J K Cements
JK Lakshmi Ce
Ramco Cem
Orient Cem
Prism Cem
Sagar Cements
Shree Cem
Ultratech
Aggregate
Consumer
Asian Paints
Britannia
Colgate
Dabur
Emami
Godrej Cons.
GSK Cons.
HUL
ITC
Jyothy Lab
Reco
Buy
Neutral
Not Rated
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
1,363
182
90
748
273
85
869
409
507
313
1,207
1,166
1,144
1,089
600
622
1,230
210
78
685
260
90
1,150
440
570
350
1,450
1,313
1,120
930
745
550
-10
15
-13
-8
-5
7
32
8
13
12
20
13
-2
-15
24
-12
19.7
6.3
1.3
12.9
4.7
4.1
26.5
5.7
9.6
11.9
42.3
17.8
20.6
30.8
29.9
15.5
20.2
7.1
2.9
16.5
5.2
1.4
25.3
9.4
11.5
14.3
49.0
19.8
26.2
29.9
34.5
17.5
28.7
8.0
3.0
24.4
6.5
2.3
35.0
11.2
14.3
17.6
57.5
31.0
31.3
34.4
37.2
19.6
67.3 8.8 7.8
25.7 6.0 4.6
30.7 1.0 1.0
45.4 9.4 8.9
52.6 31.7 23.3
58.6 1.3 1.2
34.3 6.4 6.0
43.4 10.1 8.8
44.0 9.7 8.6
21.9 5.1 4.3
24.6 3.4 3.1
59.0 6.1 5.4
43.6 10.2 8.6
36.5 4.8 4.4
17.4 3.3 2.8
35.5 6.2 5.5
31.8 3.8 3.5
37.5
32.4
35.0
50.3
13.7
28.7
20.8
33.9
25.3
26.1
41.0
35.1
34.9
40.2
29.7
51.7
56.4
44.1
44.3
48.5
46.2
37.8
55.3
27.9
39.4
2.7
3.7
2.6
5.5
1.7
1.0
3.9
3.5
4.4
3.4
5.9
2.2
7.7
4.7
3.5
14.1
21.2
22.0
12.5
16.7
12.6
8.2
42.0
6.8
6.0
2.6
3.5
2.5
5.0
1.5
1.0
3.4
3.2
3.8
3.0
5.3
2.1
6.4
4.2
3.2
13.7
17.5
20.9
10.7
14.3
9.8
8.0
41.8
6.8
6.1
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Not Rated
Buy
Buy
260
1,689
1,126
3,059
1,119
168
993
411
687
164
112
820
16,981
4,110
314
1,797
1,435
3,517
1,302
188
1,324
512
853
205
130
-
21,852
4,906
21
6
27
15
16
12
33
24
24
25
16
29
19
4.9
36.1
28.5
38.8
67.8
5.6
33.7
7.0
27.3
-1.6
0.3
-1.9
384.4
96.1
6.9
8.4
52.2 70.9
32.2 56.7
60.8 83.7
81.9 116.8
5.8
10.5
47.8 61.8
12.1 19.1
27.1 35.1
6.3
9.1
2.7
5.0
23.4 47.4
486.2 499.3
102.2 147.1
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
1,114
4,764
1,030
343
1,288
978
6,083
1,261
254
361
1,280
5,845
1,325
410
1,435
1,015
5,400
1,500
280
365
15
23
29
19
11
4
-11
19
10
1
21.0
73.7
21.2
7.2
26.5
18.9
156.1
19.6
8.4
11.2
21.6 25.8
84.5 106.9
23.4 28.6
7.7
9.3
26.6 33.2
21.2 24.5
160.8 182.3
22.8 27.6
9.1
10.0
9.2
10.9
6 December 2017
15

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
309
7,695
21,439
245
833
9,785
159
1,057
3,397
TP
% Upside
(INR) Downside
340
10
7,750
1
25,580
19
275
12
975
17
9,267
-5
-
1,320
25
2,970
-13
EPS (INR)
FY17 FY18E FY19E
6.3
6.5
7.9
123.7 128.4 149.0
238.7 296.6 413.1
3.6
8.9
12.4
16.7 17.2 20.8
132.9 151.5 176.7
3.5
3.5
6.4
8.7 14.7 18.0
26.7 34.9 53.7
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
FY17 FY18E
49.2
47.6
62.2
59.9
89.8
72.3
68.0
27.5
49.8
48.4
73.6
64.6
45.0
45.6
121.7 72.1
127.1 97.3
48.0
43.7
23.9
28.3
23.4
17.0
50.3
29.9
37.5
25.6
30.4
14.5
13.9
17.3
71.8
33.0
18.6
14.3
34.0
45.3
25.3
20.0
42.5
23.3
23.8
NM
10.3
23.0
33.8
21.1
18.0
40.1
33.9
36.2
15.7
17.4
30.7
78.5
17.6
NM
65.1
9.5
13.3
P/B (x)
FY17 FY18E
17.2 15.0
24.6 22.3
35.9 28.8
3.1 2.8
12.9 10.7
46.1 38.3
2.3 2.2
12.0 10.5
25.5 17.7
13.2 12.4
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY19E
36.7 33.6 37.1
40.9 39.0 40.9
40.0 39.8 44.4
6.0 10.8 13.3
28.2 24.1 23.9
39.3 64.8 62.9
5.2
4.9
8.5
10.2 15.5 16.5
21.3 18.2 20.9
27.6 28.2 29.5
23.0
21.9
36.7
27.6
12.3
23.0
10.2
22.0
9.7
10.0
24.7
21.1
14.5
8.6
18.0
20.9
17.1
14.4
10.8
18.1
22.2
23.8
16.8
-0.6
14.0
20.7
12.0
11.0
13.7
50.5
10.8
7.3
12.4
16.7
12.3
19.9
17.0
26.4
24.6
7.2
23.4
12.1
16.3
8.2
1.6
19.6
17.7
22.0
9.2
18.4
12.0
17.1
14.7
12.9
9.2
22.5
18.3
12.9
1.9
14.1
19.1
13.8
11.8
14.1
48.6
11.5
9.2
19.4
17.8
13.6
19.8
19.4
25.7
22.3
11.0
26.1
13.6
21.2
14.1
3.9
18.4
18.8
31.4
12.0
19.2
12.5
17.6
20.5
18.3
13.7
20.7
19.9
15.4
7.0
12.9
17.0
12.5
11.6
15.4
46.8
14.1
11.7
25.4
18.6
16.1
35.2
22.2
0.2
10.1
15.3
10.6
Company
Marico
Nestle
Page Inds
Parag Milk
Pidilite Ind.
P&G Hygiene
Prabhat Dairy
United Brew
United Spirits
Aggregate
Healthcare
Alembic Phar
Alkem Lab
Ajanta Pharma
Aurobindo
Biocon
Cadila
Cipla
Divis Lab
Dr Reddy’s
Fortis Health
Glenmark
Granules
GSK Pharma
IPCA Labs
Jubilant Life
Lupin
Sanofi India
Shilpa Medicare
Strides Shasun
Sun Pharma
Syngene Intl
Torrent Pharma
Aggregate
Infrastructure
Ashoka Buildcon
IRB Infra
KNR Constructions
Sadbhav Engineering
Aggregate
Logistics
Allcargo Logistics
Blue Dart
Concor
Gateway Distriparks
Gati
Transport Corp.
Aggregate
Media
Dish TV
D B Corp
Den Net.
Ent.Network
Hind. Media
HT Media
Reco
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Not Rated
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Not Rated
Neutral
516
2,110
1,342
670
513
425
596
1,024
2,210
150
546
125
2,468
530
688
810
4,385
635
815
524
553
1,286
540
2,500
1,606
900
485
555
600
1,100
2,575
185
650
200
2,500
550
861
1,000
5,000
797
1,214
610
-
1,400
5
18
20
34
-5
31
1
7
16
23
19
60
1
4
25
24
14
25
49
16
9
21.6
74.6
57.3
39.3
10.2
14.2
15.9
39.9
72.6
10.3
39.3
7.2
34.4
16.1
36.9
56.6
129.1
14.0
32.3
26.1
13.0
55.2
21.6 24.9
68.0 89.5
52.7 64.1
44.6 50.3
6.1
10.1
17.5 23.7
21.1 27.0
32.4 43.7
60.6 115.2
1.9
4.9
37.9 42.8
8.0
11.0
44.2 54.9
18.6 26.5
44.2 55.0
37.6 42.7
139.0 156.2
18.1 29.9
41.8 69.2
14.4 22.9
16.1 18.0
50.0 61.4
23.8 5.1 4.4
31.0 5.6 4.9
25.5 7.6 6.0
15.0 4.2 3.3
84.1 6.4 6.0
24.3 6.2 5.2
28.3 3.8 3.4
31.6 5.1 5.3
36.5 3.0 2.9
79.7 1.4 1.2
14.4 3.4 2.8
15.7 3.2 2.2
55.9 10.4 12.3
28.5 2.7 2.5
15.6 3.1 2.6
21.5 2.7 2.5
31.5 5.8 5.4
35.1 5.6 4.8
19.5 2.7 2.4
36.5 3.4 3.3
34.3 8.6 7.0
25.7 5.0 4.4
27.9 4.0 3.6
136.9
9.1
20.7
25.9
17.7
2.8
1.4
4.3
3.8
2.3
2.5
1.2
3.6
3.4
2.1
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
248
209
275
370
260
240
295
435
5
15
7
17
-0.5
20.3
12.0
11.0
1.8
22.9
13.3
14.3
7.1
23.2
14.1
14.5
Buy
Not Rated
Neutral
Buy
Not Rated
Not Rated
177
4,113
1,288
246
131
295
215
-
1,496
282
-
-
22
16
15
9.8
102.5
38.0
6.8
8.4
16.9
10.9 13.3
129.9 163.2
42.7 55.2
8.8
11.6
15.9 23.9
21.0 25.9
16.2 2.4 2.2
31.7 17.8 13.6
30.2 3.5 3.4
28.1 2.6 2.5
8.3 2.2 1.9
14.0 2.7 2.3
25.7 3.8 3.5
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
80
352
106
743
245
98
106
430
90
910
302
113
32
22
-15
22
23
15
1.0
20.0
-9.3
11.4
25.8
7.4
1.0
21.7
-2.9
11.6
25.6
10.4
2.4
25.4
0.1
20.1
30.2
11.9
79.3 17.5 14.3 25.1 19.9
16.2 4.1 3.4 24.6 22.8
NM 2.2 2.4 -19.1 -6.4
64.3 4.1 3.9
6.7
6.3
9.6 1.5 1.3 18.2 15.0
9.5 1.0 0.9
7.9 10.2
6 December 2017
16

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
164
385
1,271
100
26
856
569
TP
% Upside
(INR) Downside FY17
225
37
10.7
469
22
6.4
1,640
29
20.5
130
30
1.2
27
5
-1.9
1,005
17
24.9
630
11
12.1
EPS (INR)
FY18E FY19E
11.3 13.4
8.7
14.1
27.1 43.0
3.1
6.1
-0.8
0.1
28.1 35.7
10.5 16.0
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
FY17 FY18E
15.4
14.5
59.9
44.5
61.9
46.9
81.8
32.5
NM
NM
34.4
30.5
46.9
54.4
41.9
36.0
28.0
15.0
NM
16.8
21.0
13.3
NM
36.2
19.0
17.8
25.1
10.3
20.5
52.7
23.1
10.1
9.3
37.3
25.1
8.3
18.3
10.9
21.9
18.9
13.9
174.4
36.6
87.8
76.3
19.0
14.1
25.1
15.7
13.0
17.7
21.7
18.6
16.8
17.2
33.2
19.7
15.1
16.8
12.7
13.0
NM
12.3
16.7
10.0
NM
13.7
11.3
11.4
14.8
11.6
16.5
37.0
16.8
11.3
9.9
32.7
20.3
13.2
11.9
9.4
16.7
16.1
12.9
P/B (x)
FY17 FY18E
2.5 2.5
4.0 3.7
6.2 5.5
5.4 4.6
4.2 4.9
8.4 7.7
6.4 5.8
5.3 4.9
1.8
4.0
0.5
2.7
1.5
1.9
0.8
3.9
1.8
2.0
1.8
3.2
2.1
7.1
2.6
3.1
1.8
7.8
5.9
2.1
1.0
1.0
4.6
2.0
1.8
1.6
4.3
0.5
2.2
1.4
1.7
0.9
3.1
1.6
1.9
1.7
2.7
1.9
6.1
2.3
2.6
1.6
6.6
5.3
1.9
0.9
1.0
3.9
1.8
1.7
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY19E
18.5 17.3 19.3
11.2 8.6 12.6
10.4 12.4 17.0
7.6 15.3 24.8
-29.4 -14.2 2.4
26.0 26.4 30.7
17.0 12.8 16.8
12.6 13.5 17.2
7.4
24.4
-7.9
17.3
7.2
12.8
-9.9
10.9
9.7
15.7
7.0
32.4
9.6
14.0
11.6
32.4
20.7
21.0
24.5
31.4
5.7
10.1
23.2
11.6
13.1
8.2
14.6
20.6
15.3
16.2
27.5
26.5
22.0
14.3
41.6
16.8
13.2
13.7
17.0
37.1
32.6
18.4
16.9
13.6
32.3
-4.7
19.8
8.6
15.6
-6.9
25.2
15.1
17.1
11.4
25.2
12.0
17.8
14.4
25.1
17.2
22.0
27.3
15.1
8.0
10.8
25.2
12.1
12.9
16.5
16.5
23.4
18.5
17.4
25.9
26.4
21.8
14.1
35.2
17.3
14.6
15.1
17.9
33.6
30.6
18.9
17.0
16.5
42.5
0.1
20.2
10.1
16.2
-4.9
29.7
23.8
16.6
15.3
25.8
12.6
22.1
14.0
25.0
16.9
21.0
24.4
16.7
10.4
12.5
23.7
12.0
13.5
20.9
17.5
25.5
20.9
18.3
25.6
23.4
22.5
14.5
29.6
21.2
17.3
16.4
20.8
32.4
33.5
18.2
16.7
Company
Jagran Prak.
Music Broadcast
PVR
Prime Focus
Siti Net.
Sun TV
Zee Ent.
Aggregate
Metals
Hindalco
Hind. Zinc
JSPL
JSW Steel
Nalco
NMDC
SAIL
Rain Industries
Vedanta
Tata Steel
Aggregate
Oil & Gas
BPCL
GAIL
Gujarat Gas
Gujarat St. Pet.
HPCL
IOC
IGL
Mahanagar Gas
MRPL
Oil India
ONGC
PLNG
Reliance Ind.
Aggregate
Retail
Jubilant Food
PC Jeweller
Titan Co.
Aggregate
Technology
Cyient
HCL Tech.
Hexaware
Infosys
KPIT Tech
L&T Infotech
Mindtree
Mphasis
NIIT Tech
Persistent Sys
Tata Elxsi
TCS
Tech Mah
Wipro
Reco
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Neutral
240
295
165
249
78
132
78
349
288
676
326
322
209
297
87
187
43
492
394
672
36
9
27
19
11
42
-45
41
37
-1
8.6
19.7
-20.9
14.8
3.7
10.0
-10.1
9.6
15.1
37.9
18.8
22.7
-15.1
20.3
4.7
13.2
-6.4
25.5
25.5
59.4
26.4
33.5
0.5
24.9
5.8
12.7
-4.3
38.9
44.4
65.2
Buy
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
499
462
846
204
412
391
328
1,105
122
354
178
249
912
643
378
1,011
184
579
554
404
1,219
110
418
231
312
1,077
29
-18
20
-10
41
42
23
10
-10
18
29
25
18
48.3
22.6
16.1
8.8
40.7
41.9
8.8
44.0
14.8
19.3
16.4
11.4
48.3
43.1
28.1
22.9
12.1
36.4
39.5
10.0
54.4
9.2
29.8
19.0
15.0
56.7
52.1
31.9
33.6
13.2
42.8
43.6
11.3
53.8
11.5
40.5
22.8
16.7
62.1
Sell
Buy
Buy
1,745
390
793
1,270
490
850
-27
26
7
10.0
10.7
9.0
21.4
15.1
12.5
27.4
18.4
15.9
81.4 14.3 13.4
25.9 4.6 4.0
63.4 16.5 13.4
53.3 11.7 9.9
16.1 3.1
13.4 3.5
21.1 6.1
15.4 3.3
13.0 2.0
16.0 6.5
18.9 3.5
17.2 2.5
14.6 2.2
15.0 2.7
27.6 10.4
20.0 5.9
13.0 2.5
14.8 2.7
2.8
3.4
5.2
3.5
1.7
5.0
3.4
2.8
2.2
2.6
8.4
6.3
2.4
2.6
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
581
845
344
984
155
982
540
723
637
650
935
2,634
466
283
600
970
270
1,100
160
950
600
670
600
780
1,004
2,450
560
280
3
15
-22
12
3
-3
11
-7
-6
20
7
-7
20
-1
30.6
59.8
13.7
62.8
11.9
55.5
24.9
38.9
38.0
37.7
28.1
133.4
30.9
16.9
36.0 41.9
63.2 68.2
16.3 17.0
63.8 67.8
11.9 14.1
61.6 66.0
28.5 35.1
42.0 46.0
43.7 50.3
43.3 52.4
33.8 40.2
131.8 151.4
35.8 37.7
19.1 20.1
6 December 2017
17

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
836
TP
% Upside
EPS (INR)
(INR) Downside FY17 FY18E FY19E
1,020
22
52.1 52.8 72.7
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY19E
16.1
15.8 2.6 2.3 17.2 15.3 18.4
17.6
17.4 4.0 4.2 22.9 24.4 23.2
43.3
25.5
NM
67.2
44.4
17.8
19.1
21.1
14.8
14.3
12.0
16.1
34.2
147.0
53.6
22.5
29.0
30.3
79.9
34.0
26.7
9.0
80.8
27.4
60.2
36.5
28.8
21.9
94.2
28.6
37.9
21.3
35.6
53.2
13.0
52.2
64.9
130.6
22.4
NM
123.4
-304.8
15.1
11.1
20.1
13.1
11.5
12.2
13.6
40.2
94.1
45.5
20.3
31.2
20.9
43.1
30.6
18.2
14.5
53.6
15.3
38.5
34.3
23.6
19.0
30.3
32.0
26.3
23.9
39.0
48.0
10.4
50.0
51.8
2.9 2.9
4.5 4.5
1.4 1.8
12.0 13.0
2.9 3.1
6.7
1.2
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.0
2.3
6.4
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.8
1.9
2.1
6.8
2.2
3.7
16.2 20.2 22.8
-1.6 -26.6 -41.4
48.4 10.1 30.0
6.6 -1.0
0.2
37.8
6.5
6.3
10.5
15.6
17.1
14.4
42.4
10.7
6.3
11.0
17.0
16.0
15.7
47.7
11.1
5.0
11.9
17.4
14.6
16.8
10.9
22.9
15.7
8.0
96.1
23.4
12.9
31.5
43.0
18.5
13.7
27.4
13.5
15.9
34.5
27.9
16.4
22.9
15.3
16.3
15.1
22.2
16.1
20.7
28.8
Company
Zensar Tech
Aggregate
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Infratel
Idea Cellular
Tata Comm
Aggregate
Utiltites
Coal India
CESC
JSW Energy
NTPC
Power Grid
Tata Power
Aggregate
Others
Arvind
Avenue Supermarts
Bata India
BSE
Castrol India
Coromandel Intl
Delta Corp
Eveready Inds.
Interglobe
Indo Count
Info Edge
Kaveri Seed
Manpasand
MCX
Monsanto
Navneet Education
Quess Corp
PI Inds.
Piramal Enterp.
SRF
S H Kelkar
Team Lease Serv.
Trident
TTK Prestige
V-Guard
Reco
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
491
378
93
670
680
440
110
780
39
16
18
16
11.3 3.8
14.9 16.8
-1.1 -16.1
10.0 5.4
6.5
19.2
-18.0
18.2
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Sell
265
989
81
177
200
89
335
1,360
49
211
261
72
26
38
-39
19
30
-19
14.9
51.9
3.8
12.0
14.0
7.4
17.5
89.1
4.0
13.4
17.4
7.3
20.7
102.1
3.3
15.7
20.4
7.5
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
423
1,128
725
922
394
504
244
438
1,152
116
1,267
523
382
907
2,481
160
942
956
2,754
1,832
258
2,064
86
6,890
232
425
873
578
1,100
467
523
257
400
1,291
128
1,300
738
492
1,300
3,293
209
1,170
890
3,266
1,992
301
2,300
114
5,281
167
0
-23
-20
19
18
4
5
-9
12
10
3
41
29
43
33
30
24
-7
19
9
17
11
32
-23
-28
12.4
7.7
13.5
41.0
13.6
16.6
3.1
12.9
43.2
13.0
15.7
19.1
6.3
24.8
86.2
7.3
10.0
33.4
72.6
85.9
7.2
38.8
6.6
132.1
3.6
10.5
12.0
15.9
45.3
12.6
24.1
5.7
14.3
63.2
8.0
23.6
34.1
9.9
26.5
105.0
8.4
31.1
29.9
104.6
76.7
6.6
43.0
8.3
137.8
4.5
16.5
17.5
19.3
46.1
13.3
29.0
8.0
17.4
75.4
10.7
26.2
41.0
15.4
43.4
126.6
10.4
32.7
35.6
149.7
104.9
9.7
66.4
10.4
176.1
6.0
3.1 2.9 10.3 7.4
18.3 16.1 17.9 18.2
7.0 6.3 13.9 14.6
1.9 1.9
8.3
9.3
32.9 29.8 115.0 100.3
5.1 4.4 17.5 22.5
6.1 4.1
8.1 12.1
11.0 8.9 37.7 32.1
11.7 6.7 51.0 46.8
2.7 2.2 34.8 17.0
7.8 7.0 10.2 13.7
3.6 3.8 13.6 23.3
3.8 3.5
7.3
8.4
3.4 3.5 10.2 10.0
8.1 7.3 31.5 32.5
5.4 4.7 26.7 26.3
12.8 5.1 19.0 24.2
8.1 6.8 32.8 23.0
3.2 3.0
9.0 11.7
3.4 3.0 16.6 13.2
4.6 4.2 13.7 11.3
9.3 7.8 19.2 17.6
1.6 1.4 13.0 14.5
9.4 8.6 19.5 18.0
15.5 12.6 27.4 26.9
6 December 2017
18

MOSL Universe stock performance
MOSL: Stock performance
Company
Automobiles
Amara Raja
Ashok Ley.
Bajaj Auto
Bharat Forge
Bosch
CEAT
Eicher Mot.
Endurance Tech.
Escorts
Exide Ind
Hero Moto
M&M
Mahindra CIE
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
TVS Motor
Banks - Private
Axis Bank
DCB Bank
Equitas Hold.
Federal Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
IDFC Bank
IndusInd
J&K Bank
Kotak Mah. Bk
RBL Bank
South Indian
Yes Bank
Banks - PSU
BOB
BOI
Canara
IDBI Bk
Indian Bk
OBC
PNB
SBI
Union Bk
NBFCs
Aditya Birla Cap
Bajaj Fin.
Bharat Fin.
Capital First
Cholaman.Inv.&Fn
Dewan Hsg.
GRUH Fin.
HDFC
HDFC Stand. Life
Indiabulls Hsg
L&T Fin.Holdings
LIC Hsg Fin
Manappuram
M&M Fin.
1 Day (%)
1.6
-1.9
-1.2
3.4
-0.7
-0.7
-1.6
-3.4
0.3
-0.5
-2.3
-0.8
-1.6
-0.2
-0.3
1.6
-0.2
0.6
1.2
1.6
-0.8
0.4
-0.7
0.9
0.5
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
1.8
0.2
-0.5
1.7
-1.0
0.9
1.0
1.7
1.9
1.3
0.2
1.7
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.2
-1.6
0.0
-0.4
1.4
3.8
0.6
1.3
-0.2
1M (%)
12.4
-7.7
-1.9
-1.1
-5.0
1.1
-7.2
2.2
-8.6
-1.0
-4.6
4.4
-6.3
3.4
-10.0
6.1
-1.2
2.3
-4.8
-6.8
-0.4
-3.3
-8.3
-0.6
-6.7
-1.6
-1.8
-0.3
-5.3
-1.1
-8.6
-7.6
-9.3
11.6
-12.2
-15.1
-1.8
-7.0
-1.9
-7.0
0.1
-5.5
5.1
-10.2
1.1
-5.4
-2.6
-14.0
-5.9
0.8
1.9
12M (%)
-15.3
47.9
15.5
59.9
-4.4
36.3
27.2
116.0
106.8
15.0
9.2
17.6
24.8
63.3
-8.5
106.4
15.8
70.2
-13.5
58.1
52.5
28.8
-18.7
53.9
25.6
37.3
45.8
64.8
30.4
4.5
57.1
23.1
-13.7
59.8
4.5
29.7
24.4
11.5
Company
Muthoot Fin
PNB Housing
PFC
Repco Home
REC
STF
Shriram City Union
Capital Goods
ABB
Bharat Elec.
BHEL
Blue Star
CG Cons. Elec.
CG Power & Inds Sol.
Cummins
GE T&D
Havells
K E C Intl
L&T
Pennar Eng.
Siemens
Solar Ind
Suzlon Energy
Thermax
Va Tech Wab.
Voltas
Cement
Ambuja Cem.
ACC
Birla Corp.
Dalmia Bharat
Grasim Inds.
India Cem
J K Cements
JK Lakshmi Ce
Ramco Cem
Orient Cem
Prism Cem
Sagar Cements
Shree Cem
Ultratech
Consumer
Asian Paints
Britannia
Colgate
Dabur
Emami
Godrej Cons.
GSK Cons.
HUL
ITC
Jyothy Lab
Marico
Nestle
Page Inds
Parag Milk
1 Day (%)
-0.3
-1.9
-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
5.9
1.9
-1.5
1.0
-0.5
0.9
0.7
-0.1
1.4
1.0
-1.1
-0.8
-0.9
-2.8
-0.6
0.3
-1.8
0.3
0.7
2.0
-0.3
-0.4
-1.6
-0.8
-1.9
-0.4
0.1
0.7
-0.7
0.3
1.9
-3.5
0.6
0.0
-0.8
0.2
0.0
1.3
-0.8
0.4
-0.2
-0.6
-0.4
-2.2
-0.8
0.0
-1.0
1.4
1M (%)
-12.1
-8.3
-16.1
-0.5
-15.4
5.5
-6.8
-1.3
-0.5
-10.0
8.1
25.9
-0.5
-3.3
0.1
2.7
-0.2
-2.2
-5.8
-7.6
7.3
-17.6
13.6
2.1
13.6
-7.8
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-12.9
-10.2
-0.7
-6.3
-4.6
-6.4
-7.4
-4.8
-10.3
-5.9
-5.0
2.4
-0.3
0.9
4.0
0.7
13.3
1.8
-4.3
-5.7
-1.0
3.9
2.1
-11.8
12M (%)
49.8
52.7
-7.8
6.0
14.1
53.0
11.7
30.5
39.8
5.0
55.3
88.2
22.5
12.4
31.3
50.4
126.2
33.3
-39.8
6.7
75.5
-7.0
31.4
22.1
104.2
24.0
25.8
71.2
97.3
53.6
49.3
36.8
10.0
20.7
24.0
26.5
24.1
12.7
14.5
18.8
55.3
11.3
20.3
24.8
32.8
21.9
49.0
9.3
-2.1
21.6
23.1
60.2
-9.2
89.1
40.5
30.8
41.1
139.3
65.4
37.8
60.0
99.9
1.3
44.0
63.0
6 December 2017
19

MOSL Universe stock performance
Company
Pidilite Ind.
P&G Hygiene
Prabhat Dairy
United Brew
United Spirits
Healthcare
Alembic Phar
Alkem Lab
Ajanta Pharma
Aurobindo
Biocon
Cadila
Cipla
Divis Lab
Dr Reddy’s
Fortis Health
Glenmark
Granules
GSK Pharma
IPCA Labs
Jubilant Life
Lupin
Sanofi India
Shilpa Medicare
Strides Shasun
Sun Pharma
Syngene Intl
Torrent Pharma
Infrastructure
Ashoka Buildcon
IRB Infra.Devl.
KNR Construct.
Sadbhav Engg.
Logistics
Allcargo Logistics
Blue Dart
Concor
Gateway Distriparks
Gati
Transport Corp.
Media
Dish TV
D B Corp
Den Net.
Ent.Network
Hind. Media
HT Media
Jagran Prak.
Music Broadcast
PVR
Prime Focus
Siti Net.
Sun TV
Zee Ent.
Metals
Hindalco
1 Day (%)
-0.9
-0.3
-0.8
0.8
2.7
0.6
4.7
0.4
-0.6
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.8
-1.4
1.1
0.7
-0.1
1.1
2.7
-2.4
-0.6
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
0.5
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-2.2
1.3
-1.3
-1.8
-0.9
-0.7
0.1
-1.4
-0.8
1.6
-2.2
10.4
0.3
-0.3
-1.9
-0.5
1.0
-0.4
-0.8
-0.4
0.5
0.5
0.0
1M (%)
8.2
10.3
10.3
-5.6
9.4
2.1
10.2
8.2
-15.0
26.2
-14.5
-6.7
-2.6
-8.6
5.1
-12.8
-10.9
-7.1
0.9
6.3
-22.8
-4.9
-4.3
-1.5
-5.2
9.5
-2.2
7.4
-14.3
0.9
20.0
-1.2
-0.4
-6.7
-9.5
6.4
1.3
4.8
-5.1
14.3
-9.3
1.5
-3.7
-7.3
-0.6
-7.1
-2.4
-1.0
-2.9
5.3
-10.7
12M (%)
31.3
45.5
56.6
23.8
75.4
-17.4
24.2
-28.9
-7.6
67.6
6.8
4.1
-9.8
-30.3
-11.5
-37.5
11.6
-11.0
-4.6
-1.6
-47.3
2.7
-3.2
-24.5
-26.6
-3.9
-3.7
71.1
11.2
75.6
34.2
7.6
-11.1
43.6
6.7
11.2
71.9
-6.2
-2.2
67.1
6.1
-5.7
37.6
-4.6
18.9
44.3
-26.3
73.5
28.2
37.5
Company
Hind. Zinc
JSPL
JSW Steel
Nalco
NMDC
Rain Industries
SAIL
Vedanta
Tata Steel
Oil & Gas
BPCL
GAIL
Gujarat Gas
Gujarat St. Pet.
HPCL
IOC
IGL
Mahanagar Gas
MRPL
Oil India
ONGC
PLNG
Reliance Ind.
Retail
Jubilant Food
PC Jeweller
Titan Co.
Technology
Cyient
HCL Tech.
Hexaware
Infosys
KPIT Tech
L&T Infotech
Mindtree
Mphasis
NIIT Tech
Persistent Sys
Tata Elxsi
TCS
Tech Mah
Wipro
Zensar Tech
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Infratel
Idea Cellular
Tata Comm
Utiltites
Coal India
CESC
JSW Energy
NTPC
Power Grid
Tata Power
1 Day (%)
-1.3
-2.3
-1.3
-2.2
-0.6
0.4
0.8
-0.7
-1.7
0.8
-0.1
-1.3
-0.3
0.1
0.2
-1.5
-1.0
0.6
-1.9
-1.5
2.9
1.1
0.7
-0.1
-1.6
0.6
-0.5
2.9
-0.1
-1.9
-2.7
-2.3
-0.7
2.4
-0.4
1.1
0.0
-1.6
-2.3
0.0
1.2
0.6
0.3
0.2
-0.5
0.6
-3.5
-1.7
-1.4
-1.1
1M (%)
-8.4
-0.1
-6.8
-17.0
3.2
12.8
-9.8
-14.7
-4.6
-6.6
-0.2
-11.9
-3.8
-7.4
-5.1
4.1
-12.3
-10.3
-2.0
-6.8
-3.9
-3.6
8.4
10.3
20.3
9.4
-0.2
9.2
6.2
1.7
20.5
12.1
2.9
-1.9
-0.4
8.9
0.8
0.5
-3.7
6.3
-9.4
-8.6
-11.9
-2.8
-7.4
-1.3
-0.8
-3.0
-5.0
5.1
12M (%)
7.2
140.5
50.7
38.7
7.8
554.7
53.4
27.2
63.5
23.7
44.4
57.1
36.8
43.3
34.4
100.9
48.6
16.9
8.5
-9.4
32.7
83.4
104.7
115.2
143.7
16.9
6.7
69.1
2.4
18.6
52.6
20.2
38.4
51.8
9.4
39.2
20.5
0.8
24.2
-14.9
49.8
-2.4
28.5
5.3
-13.3
70.4
43.3
9.0
8.2
21.4
6 December 2017
20

MOSL Universe stock performance
Company
Others
Arvind
Avenue Super.
Bata India
BSE
Castrol India
Century Ply.
Coromandel Intl
Delta Corp
Dynamatic Tech
Eveready Inds.
Interglobe
Indo Count
Info Edge
Inox Leisure
Jain Irrigation
Just Dial
Kaveri Seed
Kitex Garm.
Manpasand
MCX
Monsanto
Navneet Educat.
PI Inds.
Piramal Enterp.
Quess Corp
SRF
S H Kelkar
Symphony
Team Lease Serv.
Trident
TTK Prestige
V-Guard
Wonderla
1 Day (%)
-0.9
-1.8
1.2
-0.9
-0.4
-1.1
-2.1
-3.5
-0.6
0.3
0.8
0.4
-1.3
-2.0
3.3
2.1
-1.7
-1.2
1.3
-3.2
0.3
-1.7
1.5
1.1
0.4
2.1
-1.1
-0.6
-5.1
-2.5
0.7
3.8
0.6
1M (%)
-4.0
-0.1
-10.9
-6.4
-5.1
7.1
-1.7
-11.5
-7.7
25.5
-7.8
3.7
6.5
5.1
8.8
5.7
-6.8
16.3
-11.3
-10.4
-1.8
-7.9
16.9
2.3
13.0
7.1
-5.4
1.4
27.7
-10.5
5.2
3.3
-5.1
12M (%)
23.5
77.2
-1.1
80.3
100.6
126.5
-31.8
104.3
35.7
-24.2
44.2
24.5
36.6
32.0
27.6
-0.2
23.4
-24.2
9.2
48.3
15.3
65.1
46.9
19.3
-14.7
35.1
146.9
54.0
32.0
88.9
6.8
6 December 2017
21

NOTES
6 December 2017
22

THEMATIC/STRATEGY RESEARCH GALLERY

REPORT GALLERY
RECENT INITIATING COVERAGE REPORTS
Rs

DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT GALLERY

Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock
broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed
public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock
Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange Of India Ltd. (MSE) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited
(CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are
available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf
Pending Regulatory Enquiries against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited by SEBI:
SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold
inquiry and adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL requested SEBI to provide all documents, records, investigation report relied upon by SEBI which were referred in Show Cause Notice and also sought personal
hearing. The matter is currently pending.
MOSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in
the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from
time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn
brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential
conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the
recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research
report.
Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12 month period. MOSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject company in the past
12 months.
In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, MOSL or any of its associates may have:
managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
Subject Company may have been a client of MOSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
MOSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOSL has incorporated a Disclosure
of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research
Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to,
copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered
true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not
been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice.
The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though
disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Companies where there is interest
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary
trading desk of MOSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to
subject company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
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This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC)
pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with
Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any
investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities,
products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research
Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is
not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States.
Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S.
persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional
investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional
investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and
interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S.
registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and
therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a
subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in
the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following
representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person
or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of
offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or
appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations
as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to
determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative
products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of
the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the
views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time
without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities
mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities
functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is
being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not
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be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to
certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or
representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The
person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or
employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this
information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring
Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100.
Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.:
INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd.
offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
13 December 2016
23