Sector Update |
Update | Financials
Sector
7 December 2017
Financials
Technology
Insolvency and Bankruptcy resolution – Speed set to accelerate
Sector-wise distribution of
combined list – by total
exposure
Although the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) was approved in May 2016, the
activity under this code has picked up significantly only from July 2017 after the Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) identified 12 large accounts forming 25% of the banking system’s
GNPAs for resolution under the IBC. With the resolution timeline on these cases coming
close, we met several bankers and relevant industry personnel to assess the progress and
understand the implications of this powerful law. While the recovery rate on the
announced resolution stands paltry (~90% haircut in some cases), the outlook for certain
metal and power assets is much more promising. The government and Insolvency and
Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) have amended the IBC and tightened the eligibility norms
in bidding for stressed assets. While these measures might lead to higher haircuts, we
believe that, over the longer term, it would prevent the re-entry of willful defaulters in the
system and promote transparency. According to our scenario analysis, resolution of NCLT
cases (RBI’s list 1 & 2) at 65% base case LGD should positively impact PSU banks’ FY19E
ABV by 6% to 26%, while private banks will see a modest ABV impact of 3% to 5%.
Auto Anc -- 6%
Textile -- 6%
Electronics --
12%
Metals --
43%
EPC -- 28%
Source: RBI, Company, MOSL
376 cases referred to NCLT; only one-third from financial creditors
A total of 376 cases have been referred to the NCLT over the first nine months of
CY17. A majority of these cases (i.e. 187) have been filed by the operational
creditors, 122 cases by the financial creditors and the remaining cases by the
corporate debtors. Resolution of these accounts is expected to be a major trigger
for corporate lenders. However, the beginning appears to be modest, with only 2
accounts taken up for resolution (at hefty haircuts), 7 accounts directed to undergo
liquidation, and another 14 witnessing further appeals.
More operational creditors
than financial creditors in the
cases referred
No. of Resolutions
Processes
Quarter
Total
Initiated by
*
**
#
FC OC
CD
Q4FY17 9
Q1FY18 31
7
59
21
35
37
125
RBI’s list 1 and 2 alone form ~45% of total GNPLs; of this, Metals, EPC and
Electronics account for ~82%
The RBI has directed banks to file 12 cases as part of its first list (of which 11 cases
were admitted), and has suggested for another 28 cases to be referred by end-
December if they are not resolved by other means. These are key accounts together
amounting to INR4t+ or ~45% of the total systemic GNPAs. We note that of this,
Metal, EPC and Electronics form nearly 43%, 28% and 12%, respectively, while
Textile and Power form 6% and 3%, respectively (refer exhibits 5 and 6 for details on
composition by major sectors).
Q2FY18 82 101
31
214
Till Date 122 167
87
376
Source: IBBI, Company, MOSL
* Financial Creditor
**
Operational Creditor
# Corporate Debtor
Many systemically important cases will get decided over next few months
While the resolution success through NCLT has been limited so far, the impending
decision on several steel assets – with many of them receiving active interest from
bidders – will make things interesting for corporate lenders. We expect resolution
process for these cases to get completed over the next few months, as the
resolution deadline draws close. Please refer exhibit 13 for admission dates.
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540 |
Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
7 December 2017
are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Investors
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