26 December 2017
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
33,940
0.5
Nifty-50
10,493
0.5
Nifty-M 100
20,834
0.3
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,683
0.0
Nasdaq
6,960
-0.1
FTSE 100
7,593
-0.1
DAX
13,073
-0.3
Hang Seng
11,653
0.5
Nikkei 225
22,903
0.2
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
65
0.3
Gold ($/OZ)
1,275
0.7
Cu (US$/MT)
7,085
0.6
Almn (US$/MT)
2,181
2.2
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
64.0
0.0
USD/EUR
1.2
-0.1
USD/JPY
113.3
0.0
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
7.3
0.06
10 Yrs AAA Corp
8.0
0.10
Flows (USD b)
22-Dec
MTD
FIIs
0.0
-1.0
DIIs
0.1
1.3
Volumes (INRb)
22-Dec
MTD*
Cash
353
335
F&O
4,973
6,656
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
27.5
28.2
45.2
YTD.%
19.9
29.3
6.3
13.9
24.0
19.8
YTD.%
16.8
10.7
28.3
28.0
YTD.%
-5.7
12.8
-3.1
YTDchg
0.8
0.4
YTD
7.4
14.1
YTD*
309
5,740
Today’s top research idea
NHPC – Come on in, the water’s fine
Valuations attractive at 1x BV and 6% dividend yield; initiate with Buy
NHPC is one of the largest hydro power producers in India. It has an installed
capacity of ~6.6GW with attributable equity share of 5.9GW. We expect
~6%/11%/20% CAGR growth in share in capacity/regulated equity/core (ex-
other income) PAT, respectively, over FY17-20E driven by commissioning of
projects, saving in O&M costs and approval of capital cost of five projects.
RoE will improve by 240bps to ~12% by FY20E. The regulatory risk is low,
growth potential is high and there is need to encourage hydro to handle
volatility in solar energy to manage grid.
Valuation is attractive at ~1x P/BV and dividend yield of ~6%. We expect the
stock to get re-rated as RoE improves.
We value the stock at INR37/share based on DCF and initiate the coverage with
a Buy rating.
Research covered
Cos/Sector
NHPC
ONGC
Mahindra Financial Services
Key Highlights
Come on in, the water’s fine
Growth in gas production to continue
On an upward trajectory
Piping hot news
Cummins in talks to acquire Kirloskar Oil Engines in $500 million deal
The Cummins Group, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of engines and
power generation products, is in talks to acquire a controlling stake in Kirloskar
Oil Engines Ltd in a deal valued at over $500 million through one of its Indian
subsidiaries, two people aware of talks between the companies said…
Chart of the Day: NHPC (Initiating Coverage): Come on in, the water’s fine
Regulated equity – INR b
Core (ex-other income) PBT and PAT
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.