22 December 2017
Update
| Sector:
Oil & Gas
BSE SENSEX
33,940
S&P CNX
10,493
ONGC
Buy
CMP: INR188
TP: INR227(+21%)
Growth in gas production to continue
Key takeaways from our meeting with management
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Gas production growth to continue
ONGC IN
12,833
212/155
3/11/-35
2,412.6
37.7
1,461
31.9
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
1,421.5 1,509.3 1,742.5
EBITDA
470.6
640.0
743.4
PAT
210.8
244.6
290.7
EPS (INR)
16.4
19.1
22.7
Oil production to remain flat
Gr. (%)
20.8
16.1
18.9
WO26, B127 and Ratna are expected to increase oil production. Oil production
BV/Sh (INR)
172.4
179.0
187.0
from the nominated fields is expected to increase, while that from JVs is
RoE (%)
10.1
10.8
12.4
expected to decline. As a result, we expect flat oil production over FY18-20.
RoCE (%)
8.5
9.4
10.5
P/E (x)
11.4
9.8
8.2
Oil prices are expected to stabilize around current levels, led by normalization
P/BV (x)
1.1
1.0
1.0
of unplanned shutdowns and increased US production of oil from shale.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
Promoter
68.1
68.1
68.9
DII
13
12.1
11.9
FII
5
6
5.4
Others
13.9
13.9
13.8
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
ONGC
Sensex - Rebased
270
230
190
150
Gas production growth over the near term is expected to be driven by the
Daman, C26, S1/Vashistha and Bassein fields. Gas produced from S1/Vashistha
is likely to command premium pricing.
Commencement of production from the KG-DWN-98/2 block could see some
delay from the earlier planned mid-2019. A total of 34 wells need to be drilled.
A total of three rigs are expected to be deployed, with each rig drilling one well
in three months.
ONGC had recently acquired a stake in GSPC’s KG basin block. Rig rates for this
block are being renegotiated, post which the fifth well would be drilled by the
company. A plan for further development would be charted after getting data
from the fifth well. We expect further delays in the project.
At current levels, the company does not expect subsidies to return; full
realization is expected to continue.
Reiterating Buy
Current price for gas production from difficult fields stands at USD6.3/mmBtu
(GCV) v/s USD2.89/mmBtu for APM gas. Gas production from S1/Vashistha and
KG-DWN-98/2 would fetch premium pricing, benefiting profitability. Cost-
control measures are also yielding results, in our view. Using Brent of
USD60/bbl, we estimate EBITDA of INR743b and EPS of INR22.7.
The ongoing valuation exercise for HPCL is a cause of concern. An unjustified
premium would be a double-whammy through holding company discount that
investors would attach to ONGC’s stake in HPCL.
The stock is trading at 8.2x its FY19E EPS. We value the stock at INR227, valuing
it at 10x average FY19-20E EPS, adjusted for other income. We reiterate our
Buy
rating on the stock. Our valuation includes a negative value of INR4 for its
stake in the Mozambique block. We also estimate that every USD5/bbl would
result in ~10% change in EPS.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Swarnendu Bhushan – Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale – Research Analyst
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1566