1 January 2018
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
34,057
0.6
Nifty-50
10,531
0.5
Nifty-M 100
21,134
0.7
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,674
-0.5
Nasdaq
6,903
-0.7
FTSE 100
7,688
0.9
DAX
12,918
-0.5
Hang Seng
11,709
0.2
Nikkei 225
22,765
-0.1
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
67
0.6
Gold ($/OZ)
1,297
0.4
Cu (US$/MT)
7,207
-0.6
Almn (US$/MT)
2,256
-0.8
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
63.8
-0.4
USD/EUR
1.2
0.4
USD/JPY
112.6
-0.2
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
7.3
-0.07
10 Yrs AAA Corp
8.0
-0.11
Flows (USD b)
29-Dec
MTD
FIIs
0.1
-0.7
DIIs
0.1
1.3
Volumes (INRb)
29-Dec
MTD*
Cash
394
347
F&O
2,777
6,854
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
27.9
28.6
47.3
YTD.%
19.4
28.2
7.6
12.5
24.6
19.1
YTD.%
20.6
11.9
30.5
32.4
YTD.%
-6.0
13.6
-3.9
YTDchg
0.8
0.5
YTD
7.7
14.0
YTD*
310
5,771
Today’s top research idea
Motherson Sumi: Magical times ahead!
MSS is in a sweet spot to benefit from the evolving disruptive global
automotive trends, which would drive its next wave of growth. MSS is now
entrenched in the virtuous cycle of 'scale begets scale', as it would significantly
benefit from OEMs' focus on vendor consolidation.
MSS has strong organic growth opportunities in both international and
domestic markets, driven by an increase in content per vehicle, a strong order
book and its entry in new markets/segments.
Over the next 12-15 months, with bulk of SMP plants ramping up, we expect
~19% revenue CAGR to EUR5b by FY20 and EBITDA margin expansion of 450bp
to ~11%.
PKC would benefit from a) strong tailwind in US Class 8 trucks, b) ramp-up in
China Truck and c) ramp-up in rolling stock, driving revenue CAGR of 15%
(FY17-20E) and ~400bp EBITDA margin expansion to ~10.9% by FY20E.
For MSS, we estimate consolidated revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of
22%/30%/33.5% over FY17-20E. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a
target price of INR458.
Supportive global trends | Strong growth visibility | Financial discipline
Research covered
Cos/Sector
Motherson Sumi (Initiating Coverage)
Automobiles
Key Highlights
Magical times ahead!
Strong wholesales on low base of previous year; Rural
sentiment remains positive
Chart of the Day: Motherson Sumi – Magical times ahead!
We estimate 15% CAGR in PKC’s revenue
driven by US class 8 trucks and APAC
SMRPBV has strong order book
resulting in high growth visibility
SMRPBV has started execution of
EUR9.2b orders in last 12 months
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.