15 January 2018
Update | Sector: Financials
IDFC Bank
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
34,844
S&P CNX
10,742
CMP: INR64
Going retail
TP: INR65 (+1%)
Merger with Capital First provides abundant opportunities
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
IDFCBK IN
3,402
70/51
18/-6/-26
218.6
3.4
626
47.2
Management of IDFC Bank (IDFCB) hosted a concall to discuss the details of the
announced merger with Capital First (CAFL).
CAFL complements the IDFC franchise
The proposed merger is expected to help IDFCB get closer to its target of 60%
share of retail loans by 2021. Post the merger, the share of retail loans for the
consolidated entity would stand at 45%.
In addition, the target customer segment
of CAFL is complementary to that of IDFCB – CAFL targets predominantly the
SME/MSME space, while IDFCB targets the rural population through its ‘Bharat
Banking’ model and the affluent urban population.
CAFL fills in the missing link,
making the consolidated entity relevant to the entire spectrum of customers.
In
addition, with the planned ramp-up of IDFCB branches, the consolidated entity
would have 250 branches across 35 cities by March 2018.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2018E 2019E
NII
18.9
21.9
OP
15.3
18.3
NP
10.2
11.0
NIM (%)
1.7
1.8
EPS (INR)
3.0
3.2
EPS Gr. %
0.4
7.0
BV/Sh. INR
45.5
48
ABV/Sh
INR
43.7
46
RoE (%)
6.8
6.9
RoA (%)
0.8
0.8
P/E(X)
21.2
19.9
P/BV (X)
1.4
1.3
2020E
25.7
22.7
13.4
1.8
3.9
21.9
51
48
7.9
0.9
16.3
1.3
Regulatory drag lower than expected
One of the key investor concerns regarding the merger was the drag on
profitability due to regulatory requirements on CRR, SLR and PSL.
However,
management clarified that CAFL is by-and-large self-compliant with respect to
PSL – i.e. over 40% of its loans are PSL-compliant.
However, there would be some
sub-categories wherein CAFL would be deficient. In those cases, the bank will have
to take efforts to make up for the deficiencies.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16
Promoter
52.8
52.8
52.9
DII
15.7
15.0
13.2
FII
14.9
15.7
21.5
Others
16.6
16.5
12.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
IDFC Bank
Sensex - Rebased
82
74
66
58
50
Merger to conclude by end of calendar year
Management expects the merger to conclude in the next 9-10 months. Post the
merger, IDFC Ltd.’s (IDFC) shareholding in IDFCB will drop from 53% currently to
38%. According to regulatory requirement, IDFC would have to maintain at least
40% shareholding in the bank.
As a result, IDFC will look to buy shares from the
market to get its shareholding back to 40%.
Also, management’s assessment is
that, post the merger, the company will be well capitalized to support growth
(~20% CAGR target) for the next 2-2.5 years without need for dilution.
Valuation and view
While IDFCB started its banking journey two years ago, it has faced some
challenges along the way. While it has charted a clear course of action over the
medium term and has even acquired an MFI, overall retail traction has been slow.
Scale-up of retail assets and liabilities remains a key monitorable. The proposed
merger helps the bank move forward at least five years in terms of retail traction.
At the same time, with new management at the helm, the company would get
another fresh start. We expect RoA/RoE to improve 20/200bp post the merger
(without accounting for synergies).
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Parth Gutka
(Parth.Gutka@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.