Zee Entertainment
BSE SENSEX
35,082
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,789
Z IN
960.4
569.5/8.8
619/465
-1/0/-5
1087
56.9
2020E
87.7
29.7
20.2
21.0
19.3
112.2
28.3
5.3
18.1
6.1
20.3
20.3
17 January 2018
3QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Media
CMP: INR593
TP: INR705 (+19%)
Buy
Better growth to drive valuation
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2018E 2019E
Sales
66.1
76.5
EBITDA
21.0
25.3
NP
13.1
16.9
EPS (Rs)
13.7
17.6
EPS Growth (%)
2.1
28.7
BV/Share (Rs)
80.9
94.9
P/E (x)
43.4
33.7
P/BV (x)
7.3
6.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
26.5
21.8
EV/Sales (x)
8.4
7.2
RoE (%)
18.2
20.0
RoCE (%)
16.4
18.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Ex-sports revenue rebounds with 23% growth, EBITDA up 17%:
Ex-sports
revenue rebounded (+23% YoY) to INR18.4b on a low base (3QFY17 was
impacted by demonetization). Consolidated revenue grew 12% YoY (7.6% beat).
EBITDA expanded 15% YoY to INR5.9b (8% beat). Ex-sports EBITDA increased
17% YoY – lower than revenue growth due to higher SG&A related to a) an
increase in original number of hours of content, b) three movie releases and c)
INR400m of one-off expense related to Zee’s 25-year branding. EBITDA margin
improved 90bp YoY to 32.3% (in-line). PAT rose 29% YoY to INR3.2b. Investment
in secured NCD of INR1.67b is overdue, while Zee is pursuing recovery options.
Ad revenue propels growth; subscription revenue delayed:
Domestic ad
revenue jumped 26% YoY (adj. for sale of sports business and acquisition of
RBL), with healthy ad spends across categories. Ex-sports domestic subscription
revenue grew at a muted 7.5% due to longer time taken for contract renewal
negotiations on account of the TRAI’s tariff order.
Upbeat ad/subscription outlook:
Improving ad market outlook with broad-
based ad spends across sectors and healthy viewership should lead to steady
15% ad revenue growth in 4QFY18 and 16% CAGR over FY18-19E. Domestic
subscription revenue (ex-sports) led by closure of content contracts is expected
to grow 16% in 4QFY18 and at 14% CAGR over FY18-19E.
Maintain Buy with a revised TP of INR705:
We have revised up FY19-20E PAT
by 2% on better-than-expected results. Subsequently, our TP is revised up to
INR705 (v/s INR680 earlier) on 35x P/E on Dec’19 EPS. Premium valuation is
justified by steady 24% EPS CAGR over FY18-20E and improving RoIC above
30%. Our high EPS growth estimate is driven by 200bp EBITDA margin
expansion over FY18-20E to 33.9%, above the company’s guidance of 30%+. We
believe steady revenue growth (ex-sports) should offer buffer for higher
operating cost toward the upcoming re-launch of Zee’s digital platform – Z5.
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
16,954 16,391 15,280
23.0
3.4
0.4
12,062 11,233 10,593
4,892 5,158 4,688
28.9 31.5
30.7
336
249
316
86
90 1,122
432
525
549
-829
4,074
0
4,074
1,634
40.1
56
2,383
2,383
-9.9
-714
470
4,630 4,269
0 -12,234
4,630 16,504
2,081 1,464
44.9
8.9
41 -116
2,508 15,156
2,508 4,006
-6.1 180.1
FY18
FY17
2Q
3Q
4QE
15,821 18,381 16,462 64,342
-6.7 12.1
7.7
10.7
10,909 12,437 11,118 45,073
4,912 5,944 5,343 19,269
31.0 32.3
32.5
29.9
411
505
453 1,152
3
24 1,089 1,372
2,031
480
123 2,240
-148
6,381
-1,346
7,727
1,832
23.7
-16
5,912
4,885
104.9
-419
5,477
0
5,477
2,260
41.3
-4
3,222
3,222
28.5
0
3,925
0
3,925
1,592
40.6
0
2,333
2,333
-41.8
-2,205
16,780
-12,234
29,014
6,805
23.5
-7
22,216
12,851
52.3
(INR m)
v/s est
FY18E 3QFY18E
(%)
66,065 17,085
7.6
2.7
0.8
45,023 11,593
7.3
21,042
5,492
8.2
31.9
32.1 19bp
1,679
376
34.1
1,262
556
-95.8
3,646
302
59.2
-1,099
20,647
-1,346
21,993
8,028
36.5
-16
13,982
13,127
2.1
0
4,862
0
4,862
1,653
34.0
0
3,209
3,209
34.6
12.7
12.7
36.7
0.4
0.4
Consolidated - Quarterly Earning Model
Y/E March
Total Revenue from Operations
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Fair Value through P&L
gain/(loss)
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
MI & P/L of Asso. Cos.
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
1Q
15,717
18.5
11,185
4,532
28.8
251
75
734
-1,132
3,808
0
3,808
1,626
42.7
13
2,169
2,169
-9.0
1Q
15,402
-2.0
10,559
4,844
31.4
311
147
1,011
-532
4,864
0
4,864
2,344
48.2
4
2,516
2,516
16.0
Aliasgar Shakir – Research analyst
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1565
Hafeez Patel – Research analyst
(Hafeez.Patel@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1568
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.