Kotak Mahindra Bank
BSE SENSEX
35,512
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,895
KMB IN
Operating environment improving; Subs performance remains robust
1,840
Standalone results:
PAT grew 20% YoY to INR10.53b (5% miss) in 3QFY18.
1951.3 / 30.5
Operating profit grew 19% YoY, led by 17% YoY growth in NII and continued
1114/719
control on operating expenses.
-1/-5/15
Margin contracted another 13bp QoQ to 4.2%, while fee growth stood at a
2200
healthy 14% YoY. CASA deposits grew 34% YoY to INR843.9b, of which SA
69.9
20 January 2018
3QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials-Banks
CMP: INR1060
TP: INR1,220 (+15%)
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2018E 2019E
NII
97.3 120.6
OP
72.9
92.3
Cons. NP
62.3
79.1
NIM (%)
4.3
4.4
Cons. EPS (INR)
32.7
41.5
EPS Gr. (%)
22.0
26.9
Cons. BV. (INR)
248.9 289.6
Cons. RoE (%)
13.2
14.2
RoA (%)
1.6
1.7
Valuations
P/E(X) (Cons.)
32.4
25.5
P/BV (X) (Cons.)
4.3
3.7
2020E
148.6
115.7
103.2
4.5
54.2
30.5
342.9
15.8
1.8
19.6
3.1
deposits grew 52% YoY (+9% QoQ). However, the CASA ratio declined 110bp
QoQ (+470bp YoY) to 46.7%.
Absolute GNPA declined 2.6% QoQ, while the GNPL ratio improved by 16bp
QoQ to 2.31%. PCR (cal.) improved by 419bp QoQ to 53.9%. Restructured
loans stood stable at INR670m (4bp), while SMA2 accounts increased to
19bp of loans (INR3.08b) v/s 16bp in the previous quarter.
Loans grew 23% YoY (+4% QoQ), while deposits increased 21% YoY (+9%
QoQ). KMB guided for 20%+ loan growth, as it sees improving trends in the
micro environment. Share of core deposits (CASA+less than INR50m retail
TD) stood at 75% (77% in 2QFY18).
Subs performance remains robust:
a) KMPL reported PAT of INR1.48b
(+11% YoY), while Kotak Securities reported PAT of INR1.54b (+81% YoY). b)
Kotak Mahindra Capital, Life Insurance and Asset Management subs also
reported strong growth in net profit, driving consolidated net profit to
INR16.2b (+28% YoY). c) Asset management business’ average AUM
increased 8% QoQ (+46% YoY). d) K-Sec market share came in at 2% v/s
1.9% in 2QFY18.
Valuation view:
Share of KMB in consol. profit stands at ~65% (69% in
2QFY18), as growth in subsidiaries remains strong. We expect ~25%
earnings CAGR over FY17-20E, led by a revival in loan growth and controlled
opex. Strong presence across products and healthy capitalization (Tier1 of
~18%) place the bank in a sweet spot to capitalize on growth opportunities
and gain market share. We value KMB at INR1,220 per share, which
corresponds to 3.8x Mar-20E ABV for the lending business. Maintain
Buy.
3Q
20,503
16.1
15,277
26.8
8,798
38.6
1,330
480
70
850
220
160
0
680
12,668
33.9
4Q
21,614
16.4
17,020
42.5
9,765
40.3
1,330
560
110
1,210
210
130
0
1,010
14,045
33.2
1Q
22,456
17.0
15,954
21.3
9,127
23.0
1,320
450
50
1,250
170
150
0
1,030
13,467
26.2
FY18E
2Q
23,127
15.9
17,248
19.8
9,943
22.3
1,500
550
-10
1,180
280
230
0
1,000
14,413
19.9
FY17
3Q
4Q
27,737
28.3
21,533
26.5
12,842
31.5
1,850
961
90
1,755
315
403
0
1,091
18,224
29.8
81,261
17.8
59,848
48.1
34,115
63.2
5,150
1,960
460
3,610
860
560
125
3,030
49,404
42.8
97,256
19.7
72,936
21.9
42,442
24.4
6,150
2,461
490
5,725
1,085
1,163
0
4,091
62,344
26.2
FY18E
Quarterly Performance (INR m)
Y/E March
1Q
Kotak Bank (standalone)
Net Interest Income
% Change (Y-o-Y)
Operating Profit
% Change (Y-o-Y)
Net Profit
% Change (Y-o-Y)
Other Businesses
Kotak Prime
Kotak Mah. Investments
Kotak Mah. Capital Co
Kotak Securities
International subs
Kotak Mah. AMC & Trustee Co.
Kotak Investment Advisors
Kotak OM Life Insurance
Conso. PAT
% Change (Y-o-Y)
19,191
20.1
13,150
120.3
7,420
291.0
1,200
400
230
600
130
190
110
710
10,669
106.5
FY17
2Q
19,954
18.9
14,401
37.8
8,133
42.8
1,300
530
50
960
310
70
10
630
12,023
27.4
23,937
16.7
18,201
19.1
10,532
19.7
1,480
500
360
1,540
320
380
0
970
16,240
28.2
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Parth Gutka
(Parth.Gutka@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3010 2746
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.