Sector Update | 22 January 2018
Aviation
Aviation
Domestic passenger growth
(YoY; %)
20.6
15.7 16.5
12.5
Domestic air passengers increase 17.8% in December
Domestic PLF at a record high of 89.5% led by strong festive demand
16.9 17.8
Domestic air passengers in India grew 17.8% YoY to 11.2m in Dec-17 and 18.4% YoY in
3QFY18 (v/s +15% YoY in 2QFY18). Passenger growth has been in double-digits for the
last 41 months.
Domestic ASK grew 16.5% YoY in Dec-17 and 14.2% YoY in 3QFY18 (v/s +14% YoY in
2QFY18). RPK rose 17.5% YoY in Dec-17 and 18.3% YoY in 3QFY18 (v/s +15% YoY in
2QFY18).
IndiGo’s domestic ASK/RPK grew at 12.6/12% in Dec-17, after recording muted growth
th
over the last six months due to engine issues. IndiGo received seven NEOs post 17
November 2017, which accelerated capacity addition in Dec-17.
Domestic industry load factor stood at a record high of 89.5% in Dec-17 and 87.8% in
3QFY18 (v/s 83.7% in 2QFY18). IndiGo’s load factor also increased to 90.8% in Dec-17
and 89.6% in 3QFY18 (v/s 84.1% in 2QFY18).
Domestic air passengers up 17.8% YoY to 11.2m in December
Industry load factor (%)
89.2 89.5
83.2 83.5
84.5 84.8
India's domestic air passengers grew 17.8% YoY to 11.2m in December 2017.
Passenger growth has been in double-digits for the last 41 months.
IndiGo’s passengers grew 15% YoY in Dec-17 and 12% YoY in 3QFY18 (v/s 10%
YoY in 2QFY18).
GoAir’s passengers rose 38.4% YoY in Dec-17 and 34% in 3QFY18 (v/s 12% YoY in
2QFY18).
SpiceJet’s domestic passenger volumes grew 23% YoY in Dec-17 and 18% in
3QFY18 (v/s 31% YoY in 2QFY18).
Passenger volume growth for the other airlines was as follows: Jet Airways:
+11% YoY (+16% YoY in 3QFY18) and Air India: +11% YoY (+19% YoY in 3QFY18).
IndiGo’s passenger market share stood at 39.5% in Dec-17 and 39.6% in 3QFY18
(v/s 38.4% in 2QFY18).
SpiceJet’s market share stood at 12.7% in Dec-17 and 12.8% in 3QFY18 (v/s 14%
in 2QFY18).
GoAir’s market share stood at 9.6% in Dec-17 and 9.2% in 3QFY18 (v/s 8.1% in
2QFY18); it seems to have stabilized in the 8-9% range. Jet Airways’ market
share remained below 20% for the 21
st
consecutive month at 16.7%. Prior to
that, it had a market share of above 20% since July 2014.
Air India’s market share stood at 13% in Dec-17 (v/s 13.3% in 2QFY18).
IndiGo’s domestic ASK increased 12.6% YoY in Dec-17 and 7.2% YoY in 3QFY18
(v/s 6% YoY in 2QFY18); its domestic ASK share was the highest at 40.2%.
SpiceJet’s domestic ASK grew 15.7% YoY in Dec-17 and 17.5% YoY in 3QFY18 (v/s
31.4% YoY in 2QFY18).
Domestic ASK grew 38% YoY in Dec-17 and 32.2% YoY in 3QFY18 (v/s 20% YoY in
2QFY18) for GoAir, and 10.5% YoY in Dec-17 and 13.1% YoY in 3QFY18 (v/s 14%
YoY bin 2QFY18) for Jet Airways.
IndiGo’s PAX market share stays highest; Go Air’s share inches up
Passenger market share (%)
Nov-17
IndiGo
Jet
AI
SpiceJet
GoAir
Others
17.4
16.7
13.5
13.0
12.6
12.7
8.9
9.6
8.1
8.4
Dec-17
39.5
39.5
Domestic ASK grows 16.5% YoY in Dec-17 (+14.2% YoY in 3QFY18)
Swarnendu Bhushan – Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale – Research Analyst
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309
22 January
1
Investors
2018
advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
are
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.