22 January 2018
Q3FY18 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Havells India
Buy
BSE SENSEX
35,798
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,966
HAVL IN
Operating performance marginally below expectations
625
Performance impacted by weakness in Cables & Wires:
Revenue grew
345.0 / 5.3
30.5% YoY to INR19.7b (est. of INR20.3b) in 3QFY18. Operating profit of
575/396
INR2.6b (+37.5% YoY) too was below our estimate of INR2.8b. Revenue
-5/10/5
came in below estimate due to a miss in the Cables & Wires segment. Adj.
691
PAT of INR1.7b (+29.4% YoY) was marginally below our estimate of INR1.8b.
38.4
CMP: INR552
TP: INR640 (+15%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2018E
82.6
10.4
7.1
11.4
19.4
59.0
19.4
19.5
48.4
9.4
2019E
99.7
13.2
8.7
13.9
21.6
66.9
20.8
21.3
39.8
8.3
2020E
116.0
16.2
10.8
17.2
24.1
76.7
22.5
23.4
32.0
7.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Core business (ex-Lloyd) witnesses robust growth across segments, barring
Cables & Wires:
Core business revenue grew 11% YoY to INR16.7b (+14%
YoY, adjusted for excise impact on exempted zones), below our estimate of
INR17.2b, due to a weak performance from Cables & Wires (+3% YoY).
Operating profit rose 33% YoY to INR2.5b and EBIDTA margin improved
250bp YoY to 15.2%, driven by a) margin improvement across product
categories, as demonetization-related schemes were discontinued, b) price
hikes taken to compensate for higher raw material cost and c) low ad spend
(3.2% v/s 3.5% in 3QFY17).
Lloyd’s consumer business grows 16% YoY:
The recently acquired Lloyd
business recorded revenue of INR2.9b (+16% YoY). Operating profit stood at
INR480m and EBIDTA margin at 2.9%. Margin shrunk to 3% led by a)
inventory (old-EER stock) pushed to dealers at lower prices prior to
implementation of new norms and b) higher advertising costs at 9% of sales.
Working capital cycle contraction led by increase in payable days:
Core net
working capital cycle contracted to -14 day from 30 days in 3QFY17. During
the quarter, creditor days were up to 104 from 42 in 3QFY17 due to vendor
financing and extended credit cycle provided by Lloyd’s vendors.
Valuation and view:
We raise our earnings estimate for FY20 by 3% to factor
in better-than-estimated operating margins, driven by cost-control
measures. We maintain our
Buy
rating and raise our TP to INR640, with exit
multiple of 37x Mar’20E EPS of INR17.2.
FY18
FY17 FY18E MOSL
2Q
3QE
4QE
3QE
17,774 19,658 26,592 61,353 82,629 20,285
22.4
30.5
55.5
14.1
34.7
34.7
2,569 2,622 3,227 8,241 10,384 2,756
26.3
37.5
40.6
9.2
26.0
44.5
14.5
13.3
12.1
13.4
12.6
13.6
349
363
266 1,196 1,314
320
67
55
94
122
250
70
287
278
138 1,343 1,050
100
-
210
-
0.0
2,440 2,482 3,005 8,266 9,870 2,466
730
748
777 2,298 2,744
690
29.9
30.1
25.9
27.8
27.8
28.0
1,710 1,944 2,228 5,969 7,126 1,775
17.3
68.9 135.2
17.1
19.4
16.1
1,710 1,734 2,228 5,969 7,126 1,775
17.3
29.4
29.9
16.9
19.4
32.5
Quarterly Perf. (Standalone)
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
Adj EBITDA
Change (%)
Adj EBITDA margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Extra-ordinary Items
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adj PAT
Change (%)
1Q
14,668
17.1
2,004
23.7
13.7
280
16
314
-
2,022
567
28.0
1,456
36.3
1,456
22.2
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
14,522 15,060 17,102
8.7
13.2
17.2
2,034
1,907
2,296
7.6
4.0
3.5
14.0
12.7
13.4
308
301
308
19
15
71
323
286
419
-
(190)
(768)
2,030
1,877
2,337
572
537
622
28.2
28.6
26.6
1,458
1,151
947
22.0
-4.0
-74.1
1,458
1,340
1,715
21.1
13.3
5.0
(INR Million)
Var.
1Q
18,605
26.8
1,724
-14.0
9.3
336
34
348
-
1,703
489
28.7
1,214
-16.6
1,214
-16.6
-3.1%
-4.8%
0.7%
9.5%
-2.3%
Ankur Sharma – Research Analyst
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah – Research Analyst
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.