Indiabulls Housing Finance
BSE SENSEX
36,140
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2018E 2019E
Net Fin inc
49.8
61.1
PPP
60.7
69.4
EPS (INR)
91.1 105.1
EPS Gr. (%)
32.8
15.4
BV/Sh. (INR)
324
367
RoA on AUM (%)
3.4
3.0
RoE (%)
29.9
30.4
Payout (%)
50.0
50.0
Valuations
P/E (x)
15.0
13.0
P/BV (x)
4.2
3.7
P/ABV (x)
4.2
3.7
Div. Yield (%)
3.3
3.9
S&P CNX
11,084
IHFL IN
Continued strong growth
421.3
Indiabulls Housing Finance's (IHFL) core operating performance was robust,
573.8/8.6
with strong AUM growth (+32% YoY) and stable reported spreads. We note
1397/741
9/5/49
of a one-time gain of INR7.68b due to the sale of 10% stake in Oak North
2174
Bank to GIC, Singapore.
76.4
AUM growth was in line with trend at 32% YoY to reach INR1.1t. This was
23 January 2018
3QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials
CMP: INR1,379
TP: INR1,630 (+18%)
Buy
2020E
76.4
85.4
128.3
22.1
421
2.8
32.6
50.0
10.6
3.2
3.2
4.7
driven by 43% YoY growth in disbursements to INR130b. Management is
bullish on supply pick-up in the affordable housing space.
Despite competitive pressures, IHFL managed to hold reported spreads
steady at 3.22% (vs. 3.25% in 2QFY18). Management continues to guide for
book spreads of 3-3.25%. Incremental cost of funds is around 7.5%.
The share of home loans in the overall book inched up 100bp QoQ to 59%.
With the share continuously inching up (to the target of 66% by FY20), we
believe spread pressure will continue.
Valuation view:
IHFL's transformation from a diversified lender to a
focused mortgage player has yielded returns, with RoE/RoA improving from
3%/0.8% in FY09 to 26%/3.4% in FY17. Focus on core mortgage loans and
market share gains should drive AUM growth of 25%+ over the next three
years. IHFL is among the lowest-levered HFCs. Asset quality trend is likely to
remain stable. We increase our FY18 estimates by 9% to factor in high
growth. However, we lower our FY19/20 estimates by 1%/3% to factor in
mild compression in spreads. Maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR1,630 (3.8x
FY20E book).
FY17
2Q
25,098
3,651
28,749
28.0
16,279
12,470
24.6
3,258
9,212
24.3
2,352
6,861
-18
6,843
23.2
29.3
26.1
25.5
FY18
2Q
30,670
2,755
33,425
16.3
18,355
15,070
20.8
3,935
11,135
20.9
2,615
8,520
91
8,611
25.8
33.1
26.1
23.5
(INR Million)
3Q
33,492
7,565
41,057
36.7
19,531
21,525
56.9
5,932
15,594
55.0
3,939
11,655
23
11,677
55.4
31.8
27.6
25.3
4Q
36,175
3,024
39,199
21.6
20,611
18,588
25.1
4,579
14,009
44.5
3,516
10,493
50
10,543
25.4
28.7
24.6
25.1
FY17
103,990
13,027
117,017
26.8
64,108
52,910
24.4
15,192
37,718
20.5
8,633
29,085
-22
29,064
24.0
32.9
22.9
FY18E
129,897
16,034
145,931
24.7
76,219
69,711
31.8
18,374
51,337
36.1
12,834
38,503
210
38,293
31.8
28.7
25.0
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Income from opera ti ons
Other Income
Total income
Y-o-Y Growth (%)
Interes t expens es
Net Income
Y-o-Y Growth (%)
Opera ti ng Expens es
Profit before tax
Y-o-Y Growth (%)
Ta x Provi s i ons
Net Profit
Mi nori ty Int
Net Profit after MI
Y-o-Y Growth (%)
AUM Growth (%)
C/I Ra ti o i ncl provi s i ons (%)
Ta x Ra te (%)
E: MOSL Es ti ma tes
1Q
23,720
2,255
25,975
28.3
14,109
11,866
33.9
3,116
8,750
26.4
2,401
6,349
-49
6,301
23.2
31.5
26.3
27.4
3Q
25,859
4,186
30,045
30.2
16,329
13,716
26.8
3,658
10,058
24.9
2,555
7,502
13
7,515
24.7
30.8
26.7
25.4
4Q
29,314
2,935
32,249
21.8
17,391
14,858
15.6
5,160
9,698
9.0
1,325
8,373
32
8,405
24.4
32.9
34.7
13.7
1Q
29,560
2,690
32,250
24.2
17,722
14,528
22.4
3,928
10,600
21.1
2,764
7,836
46
7,882
25.1
33.0
27.0
26.1
Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Shubhranshu Mishra
(Shubhranshu.Mishra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.