24 January 2018
Q3FY18 Results Update | Sector: Others
Quess Corp
Buy
BSE SENSEX
36,162
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
11,086
QUESS IN
Accelerating growth trends
137.7
Led by organic pick-up and continued inorganic thrust
151.7 / 2.4
1,199 / 630
Strong revenue momentum:
QUESS’ 48.5% YoY revenue growth to INR15.8b
was a beat to our estimate, driven by a pick-up in organic growth and
-4/13/28
integration of TBSS (which we had assumed for the subsequent quarter).
126
While there have been several acquisitions over the last few quarters, we
28.3
CMP: INR1,102 TP: INR1,300(+18%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Sales
59.4
79.1
EBITDA
3.4
5.3
NP
3.1
4.8
EPS (Rs)
22.1
33.1
EPS Growth (%)
66.8
214.8
BV/Share (Rs)
179.4
222.7
RoE (%)
21.7
21.3
RoCE (%)
18.2
18.6
P/E (x)
49.8
33.3
P/BV (x)
6.1
4.9
2020E
94.4
6.4
6.1
41.4
235.0
276.2
21.4
19.5
26.6
4.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
reckon organic growth in the quarter would be ~25% v/s ~20% in the
previous quarter. A pick-up was also seen in the People & Services business,
with growth of 25% YoY v/s 8% YoY in the year-ago period.
Margins stable despite accretive acquisitions:
EBITDA margin at 5.7%
expanded by 10bp YoY. While margins were stable in P&S and the
integration of higher-margin Manipal Integrated Services boosted
profitability in Integrated Facilities Management, there was a YoY decline
seen in Global Technology Solutions (-50bp) and Industrials (-200bp). A
turnaround in Industrials and further integration of accretive acquisitions
would, however, lead to expansion, going forward. PAT at INR690m was up
105% YoY, beating estimates because of a lower ETR (80JJAA).
Leadership changes and an acquisition:
QUESS announced elevation of
Subrata Nag to the role of CEO and appointed Manoj Jain as CFO. Ajit Isaac
will continue leading the company as Chairman and MD. It also announced
the acquisition of Greenpiece, a landscaping company, to fit into its IFM
business. The acquisition would be EBITDA-accretive and would add to ~1%
to the FY18 revenue base.
Valuation view:
We value Quess using DCF to reach a price target of
INR1,300, implying 18% upside. Our price target has increased by ~11%, led
by higher-than-expected tax benefits. Valuations are rich given its strong
growth history, and continued aggressive thrust on acquisitions. Over
FY18/20E, we expect revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 26/37/39%, led by our
assumption of 20% growth in the organic business and incremental
contribution by the recent acquisitions. The long-term prospects of the
company stand bright, given the high-growth opportunities, aggression
shown on expansion, and flawless execution. Maintain
Buy.
4Q
1Q
12,395 12,973
24.4
30.9
11,693 12,221
702
752
5.7
5.8
73
75
157
164
30
35
502
548
0
0
502
548
130
151
25.8
27.6
3
10
369
387
369
387
5.5
56.7
3.0
3.0
FY18
2Q
3Q
13,953 15,840
37.1
48.5
13,164 14,930
789
909
5.7
5.7
83
122
155
171
168
126
719
742
0
0
719
742
-764
53
-106.3
7.1
2
0
1,481
690
1,481
690
391.6
104.8
10.6
4.4
FY17
4QE
16,679
34.6
15,695
984
5.9
125
175
130
814
0
814
0
0.0
3
811
811
119.8
4.9
43,149
25.6
40,771
2,378
5.5
275
471
154
1,787
0
1,787
534
29.9
-1
1,254
1,254
41.8
2.9
FY18E
59,444
37.8
56,010
3,434
5.8
406
665
459
2,823
0
2,823
-293
-10.4
15
3,102
3,102
147.4
5.2
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
Tota l Expendi ture
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra -Ord expens e
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
MI & P/L of As s o. Cos .
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
Ma rgi ns (%)
1Q
9,910
35.7
9,382
528
5.3
60
92
7
382
0
382
135
35.4
0
247
247
37.1
2.5
FY17
2Q
3Q
10,177 10,668
26.9
17.7
9,626 10,071
551
597
5.4
5.6
69
72
98
123
57
60
441
462
0
0
441
462
140
130
31.7
28.1
0
-4
301
337
301
337
65.9
95.2
3.0
3.2
Est.
3Q Var. (% / bp)
14,404
10.0
40.3
818
13,612
9.7
792
14.8
5.5
24
98
24.7
40
327.9
119
5.4
774
-4.1
0
774
-4.1
269
-80.5
34.8
-2,768
2
503
37.1
503
37.1
62.1
4,280
3.5
86
Sagar Lele – Research analyst
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531
Ashish Chopra – Research analyst
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.