29th January 2018
3QFY18 Result Update I Sector: Capital Goods
KEI Industries Ltd
BSE SENSEX
36,050
S&P CNX
11,070
CMP: INR 399
TP: INR 537 (+34%)
Buy
Q3 marks strong revenue and PAT growth driven by increasing contribution
from retail segment with high other income and low interest burden
Strong revenue growth driven by wires and cables segment:
For 3QFY18,
KEI's revenue grew 24.1%/18.7% on YoY/QoQ basis to INR 8.9bn, driven by
strong 19.8% YoY growth in cables segment. Within wires and cables
segment, low tension grew at 23.3% on YoY basis, followed by high tension
(17.3%), extra high voltage cables (18.8%) and house wires (39.6%).
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Turnover, INR m
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/E (x)
Div. PO (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
2018E
33.0
3.3
1.3
17.0
34.1
77.0
23.5
5.2
11.5
5.0
24.7
16.9
KEII IN
77.8
423 / 133
4 / 62 / 159
31.0
0.49
260
Robust PAT growth led by low interest cost and high other income:
For
51
3QFY18, KEI's PAT grew 43.6%/36.9% on YoY/QoQ basis to INR 0.4bn, driven
by increase in other income and low interest burden. Decline in interest cost
2020E
46.8
4.9
2.3
29.8
33.9
126.5
13.4
3.2
7.8
5.0
26.5
19.4
Increasing contribution from retail segment:
For 3QFY18, retail segment
revenue grew at 71.0% YoY to INR 3.1bn. The contribution stood at 35.2% in
3QFY18 vs. 25.1% in 3QFY17 and 33.3% in 2QFY18. Management expects
the contribution to increase to 40% by FY20. Company added 61 new dealers
in 9MFY18 taking total dealer strength to 1,208. Going ahead it targets to
grow its existing dealers in size and at the same time add 11% new dealers
every year.
2019E
39.5
3.9
1.7
22.3
30.9
98.2
17.9
4.1
9.7
4.9
25.4
18.0
was driven by low bank guarantee charges and low interest rate. Other
income was driven by forex gain (INR 69.8mn) mainly on account of import of
raw material. However, EBITDA margins declined by 139bps/70bps YoY/QoQ
to 9.5% due to higher expense incurred on R&D and testing of EHV cables
(400 kV). The same would start contributing to the topline from 1QFY19.
Key con-call highlights:
9MFY18 cables volume growth stood at 19.0% and
is expected to be maintained at similar levels. Management is positive on
EHV cables growth due to strong bidding in various state transmission utilities
(L1 in INR 2bn). In 9MFY18, EPC revenue stood at INR 7.1bn and is likely to be
maintained at INR ~10-11bn for the next 2 financial years. Export segment
revenue is expected to grow by 10-15% over FY18-20E.
Valuation:
We have tweaked our estimates in-line with the management
guidance; however, we continue maintain our earnings estimates for FY19
and FY20. KEI is likely to be a major beneficiary of key government initiatives
in power, infrastructure and real estate sector. It has high return ratios, free
cash flows and low debt to equity. Given the high growth expectation along
with healthy financials, we continue to maintain BUY rating with a TP of INR
537/share (at 18x FY20EPS).
Quarterly Standalone Performance (INR mn)
3QFY18
8,887
843
EBITDA Margins (%)
9.5
Depreciation
82
Interest
251
Adj. Net Profit
390
3QFY17
7,162
779
10.9
70
341
272
YoY (%)
24.1
8.2
-139bps
16.7
(26.2)
43.6
2QFY18
7,488
763
10.2
81
274
285
QoQ (%)
18.7
10.6
-70bps
1.8
(8.1)
36.9
* Closing price as on 25th Jan , 2018
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
MFs
FPIs
Others
Dec-17 Sept-17
46.3
46.3
12.4
13.5
6.4
5.5
34.9
34.7
Jun-17
46.6
18.4
4.0
31.0
Investors are advised to refer through
Y/E December
disclosures made at the end of the Research
Revenue
Report.
EBITDA
Siddhartha Khemka
siddhartha.khemka@motilaloswal.com
Pooja Doshi
pooja.doshi@motilaloswal.com
Source: Company, MOSL