Hindustan Zinc
BSE SENSEX
34,006
S&P CNX
10,455
9 February 2018
Update
| Sector:
Metals
CMP: INR304
TP: INR342(+13%)
Getting more aggressive on volume growth
Expect special dividend again; maintain Neutral
Neutral
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
HZ IN
4,225
331 / 227
-3/3/-24
1,283.9
19.9
674.0
35.1
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
220
295
285
EBITDA
122.9 181.4 170.5
NP
91.1 140.9 135.6
Adj. EPS (INR)
21.6
33.3
32.1
EPS Gr(%)
9.6
54.6
-3.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
49.2
70.5
91.1
RoE (%)
35.3
55.7
39.7
RoCE (%)
44.8
76.5
52.8
P/E (x)
14.5
9.4
9.8
P/BV
12.2
8.2
8.4
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16
Promoter
64.9
64.9
64.9
DII
31.3
1.7
1.3
FII
2.2
2.2
3.0
Others
1.7
31.2
30.8
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Hind.Zinc
Sensex - Rebased
440
380
320
260
200
We met the management of Hindustan Zinc (HZ). Key highlights:
HZ’s mine production ramp-up to 1.2mtpa (v/s 907kt in FY17) is on schedule.
The production run-rate is likely to be achieved in any one of the quarters
during FY19 itself.
This makes us more comfortable on our estimates of 1.05mt
for FY19 and 1.16mt for FY20. There is a possibility of some upside in FY19.
As the mix of silver-rich ore increases,
silver production will increase at a
faster rate.
With the commissioning of Fumers and ramp-up at SK mine, HZ
expects silver production to increase to 700-800t and ultimately to 1,000t.
HZ has
strong focus on enhancing Reserves and Resources (R&R).
Exploration
activities are intensifying further, encouraged by the findings so far. HZ is
strengthening its exploration team with the best in the world. Exploratory
drilling is likely to increase from 70km in FY17 to 200km in FY19. R&R has
increased from 146mt in FY04 to 404mt in FY17 and the plan is to increase it to
550mt. Strong focus on enhancing resources has ensured mine life of more
than 30 years at any time despite 10-fold increase in production in 12-13 years.
Cost of production is likely to decline by ~USD100/t to USD850/t
on full ramp-
up of vertical shaft, availability of coal linkage and operating leverage.
HZ is firming up plans to
further increase mine production by 25% to 1.5mt
at
a capex of USD1.5b over the next 3-4 years, as it is getting more confident on
new R&R findings. HZ is also exploring gold (Bagmara mine) and sulfate
resources, and is optimistic of finding sizable economical reserves.
The
pricing outlook for zinc remains bullish,
as demand continues to outstrip
supply. Though few new supplies (Gamsberg, HZ expansion, Century tailings,
etc) will begin in the near future, the market is expected to remain in deficit.
Expect special dividend in FY18:
With strong free cash flows, HZ is likely to
announce special dividend again. However, the dividend payout policy remains
unchanged at minimum of 30% payout. We have increased payout from 36% to
120% for FY18, while keeping it unchanged at 36% for FY19 onwards. At CMP,
the dividend yield is attractive at ~7% for FY18 and at least 3% thereafter.
We believe HZ will continue to deliver strong volumes
due to strong
management focus, investment in drilling and human resources. We maintain a
bullish zinc price outlook and expect LME to average at USD3,800/t in FY19 and
little lower at USD3,200/t in FY20. EBITDA is expected to increase 45-50%,
driven by volume growth, cost reduction and favorable LME.
We roll over our target price to FY20E and adjust for special dividend. New
target price at INR342 (earlier INR354) implies 12-13% upside and 7% dividend
yield.
Maintain Neutral.
Recent volatility in stock price is an opportunity to buy
the stock, as business fundamentals remain strong, in our view.
Sanjay Jain – Research analyst
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal – Research analyst
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Hindustan Zinc
Exhibit 1: Sum of the parts valuations
EBITDA
EV
Enterprise Value
FY18E FY19E FY20E EBITDA (x) FY18E FY19E FY20E
Hind. Zinc
HZL
Less: Net Debt
Equity Value
INR/share of HZL target price
123
181
171
6.5
Volumes (kt)
Prices (USD/t)
EBITDA/t (USD)
FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E
934 2,994 3,800 3,200 1,998 2,703 2,309
202 2,433 2,750 2,750
628 39
41
41
Source: MOSL
799 1,179 1,108 Zinc 854
-144 -240 -336 Lead 179
943 1,419 1,445
Silver 545
223 336 342
9 February 2018
2

Hindustan Zinc
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Total Expenses
EBITDA
As % of Net Sales
EBITDA attribute
DDA
EBIT
Finance cost
Other income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
EO expense (Income)
PAT (after EO)
Minority interests
Share in Asso.
Attrib. PAT (after MI & asso)
Change (YoY %)
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Subsidiaries
WC. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and advances
WC. Liability & Prov.
Trade payables
Provisions & Others
Net WC. Assets
Misc Exp
Appl. of Funds
INR million
FY20E
284,857
114,356
170,501
59.9
170,501
21,786
148,715
0
22,873
171,588
36,033
21.0
135,555
0
135,555
FY14
136,360
66,706
69,654
51.1
69,654
7,846
61,808
492
18,198
79,514
10,651
13.4
68,863
-183
69,046
FY15
147,884
73,581
74,303
50.2
74,303
6,442
67,861
235
28,211
95,836
13,921
14.5
81,915
81,915
FY16
142,264
74,501
67,763
47.6
67,763
6,716
61,048
169
27,294
88,173
4,438
5.0
83,735
1,757
81,978
FY17
172,964
75,574
97,390
56.3
97,390
17,871
79,519
2,017
24,496
101,998
18,837
18.5
83,161
-5
83,166
FY18E
220,297
97,406
122,892
55.8
122,892
17,455
105,437
2,380
16,746
119,802
28,661
23.9
91,141
-2,910
94,051
FY19E
294,833
113,412
181,420
61.5
181,420
20,936
160,484
0
17,846
178,331
37,449
21.0
140,881
0
140,881
68,863
-0.4
81,915
19.0
83,735
2.2
83,161
-0.7
91,141
9.6
140,881
54.6
135,555
-3.8
INR million
FY20E
8,451
376,376
384,827
0
-14,583
370,244
215,759
125,413
90,346
30,713
0
387,475
31,217
2,341
336,434
17,483
138,291
19,511
118,780
249,185
370,244
FY14
8,451
365,726
374,176
0
16,581
390,757
135,841
44,369
91,473
15,409
0
309,885
11,982
3,995
255,378
38,529
26,010
5,103
20,906
283,875
390,757
FY15
8,451
425,080
433,531
0
25,186
458,717
145,505
51,043
94,462
20,047
0
375,411
12,118
6,588
307,851
48,855
31,203
6,308
24,895
344,208
458,717
FY16
8,451
365,401
373,852
0
-24,979
348,873
161,859
58,006
103,853
24,282
0
378,835
10,582
1,068
352,740
14,444
158,096
9,306
148,790
220,739
348,873
FY17
8,451
299,595
308,046
79,078
-27,480
359,643
165,167
65,237
99,930
30,713
0
359,832
19,358
1,360
321,630
17,483
130,831
12,051
118,780
229,000
359,643
FY18E
8,451
199,457
207,908
0
-21,581
186,327
184,559
82,692
101,867
30,713
0
187,615
24,142
1,811
144,179
17,483
133,869
15,089
118,780
53,746
186,327
FY19E
8,451
289,621
298,072
0
-18,015
280,057
200,159
103,628
96,532
30,713
0
291,786
32,310
2,423
239,569
17,483
138,974
20,194
118,780
152,812
280,057
9 February 2018
3

Hindustan Zinc
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV (incl.-goodwill)
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margins
Net Profit Margins
RoE
RoCE (pre-tax)
RoIC (pre-tax)
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Receivable (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Trade payable (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Net Debt/EBITDA
Net Debt/Equity
FY14
16.3
18.2
88.6
3.5
25.8
FY15
19.4
20.9
102.6
4.4
27.2
FY16
19.8
21.4
88.5
27.8
168.3
FY17
19.7
23.9
72.9
29.4
179.3
15.9
13.1
4.3
0.0
0.0
9.4
51.1
50.5
15.3
11.5
48.3
1.5
11
32
14
11.9
-3.7
-0.7
50.2
55.4
23.4
26.2
47.4
1.6
16
30
16
12.0
-4.1
-0.7
47.6
58.9
23.6
24.4
83.1
1.4
3
27
24
2.4
-5.2
-0.9
56.3
48.1
24.4
29.4
465.8
1.7
3
41
25
2.8
-2.5
-0.8
FY18E
21.6
25.7
49.2
21.6
120.0
14.5
12.2
6.4
5.2
9.3
6.9
55.8
41.4
35.3
44.8
263.1
2.2
3
40
25
1.4
-1.2
-0.7
FY19E
33.3
38.3
70.5
10.0
36.0
9.4
8.2
4.4
3.6
5.8
3.2
61.5
47.8
55.7
76.5
388.4
3.0
3
40
25
2.1
-1.3
-0.8
FY20E
32.1
37.2
91.1
9.6
36.0
9.8
8.4
3.4
3.3
5.6
3.1
59.9
47.6
39.7
52.8
400.3
3.0
3
40
25
2.8
-2.0
-0.9
Cash Flow Statement
EBITDA
Non cash exp. (income)
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap.
Tax paid
Others
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Interest & Dividend Income
CF from Inv. Activity
Equity raised/(repaid)
Debt raised/(repaid)
Dividend (incl. tax)
CF from Fin. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
FY14
69,654
-1,552
-10,651
57,451
-17,784
39,667
18,198
414
-4
-17,303
-17,307
40,558
214,820
255,378
FY15
74,303
-66
-13,921
60,316
-14,302
46,014
28,211
13,909
0
-21,752
-21,752
52,473
255,378
307,851
FY16
67,763
-6,356
-4,438
56,970
-20,589
36,381
27,294
6,705
0
-18,786
-18,786
44,889
307,851
352,740
FY17
97,390
-35,279
-18,837
43,274
-9,739
33,536
24,496
14,757
79,078
-168,219
-89,141
-31,110
352,740
321,630
FY18E
122,892
-2,197
-22,762
97,932
-19,393
78,539
16,746
-2,647
-79,078
-191,279
-272,736
-177,452
321,630
144,179
FY19E
181,420
-3,676
-33,883
143,861
-15,600
128,261
17,846
2,246
INR million
FY20E
170,501
492
-32,602
138,391
-15,600
122,791
22,873
7,273
-50,717
-50,717
95,391
144,179
239,569
-48,800
-48,800
96,864
239,569
336,434
9 February 2018
4

Hindustan Zinc
NOTES
9 February 2018
5

Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
Hindustan Zinc
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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Analyst ownership of the stock
Hindustan Zinc
No
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those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy,
completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the
views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval.
MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform
investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this
into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and
the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or
published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such
distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all
jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall
be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees
to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL
or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm
Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MSE); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100.
Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth
management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real
Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
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